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Indians vote in the first phase of the world's largest election as Modi seeks a third term
Millions of Indians began voting Friday in a six-week election that's a referendum on Narendra Modi, the populist prime minister who has championed an assertive brand of Hindu nationalist politics and is seeking a rare third term as the country's leader.
People began queuing up at polling stations hours before they were allowed in at 7 a.m. in the first 21 states to hold votes, from the Himalayan mountains to the tropical Andaman Islands. Nearly 970 million voters — more than 10% of the world’s population — will elect 543 members to the lower house of Parliament for five years during the staggered elections that run until June 1. The votes will be counted on June 4.
This election is seen as one of the most consequential in India’s history and will test the limits of Modi's political dominance.
If Modi wins, he’ll be only the second Indian leader to retain power for a third term, after Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first prime minister.
Most polls predict a win for Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, who are up against a broad opposition alliance led by the Indian National Congress and powerful regional parties.
It's not clear who will lead India if the opposition alliance, called INDIA, wins the election. Its more than 20 parties have not put forward a candidate yet.
The BJP controls much of India's Hindi-speaking northern and central parts, but is now trying to gain a foothold in the east and south. Their toughest challenge is in the southern Tamil Nadu state, with 39 seats, where voting is being held Friday.
Voters in hot and humid Chennai, the state's capital, began briskly filling the city's nearly 4,000 polling booths. A number of them said they were voting for a change in federal government given rising prices, unemployment and religious polarization stoked by the BJP.
“First thing I came to vote for is to have a country without any religious disharmony. In Tamil Nadu — Hindus, Muslims, Christians, we're all together. And this unity should grow," said 65-year-old Mary Das, who was waiting to vote.
P. Chidambaram, an opposition Congress party leader and the country’s former finance minister, said that the people of Tamil Nadu would not vote for the BJP as “it is imposing one language, one culture, one system and one kind of food.”
The BJP has long struggled to capture votes in the state, where two powerful regional parties — the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam — dominate. The BJP drew a blank in 2019, and won one seat in 2014.
In Rajasthan, people returning from polling stations covered their heads against dusty winds.
“If the new government is able to solve unemployment, then it will be good. People are migrating from this region to earn a living," said Atinder Singh, 26.
Voting is also taking place in the northeastern state of Manipur, where a near-civil war for a year has triggered ethnic violence. Mobs have rampaged through villages and torched houses, and more than 150 people have been killed.
The election comes after a decade of Modi's leadership, during which the BJP has consolidated power through a combination of Hindu-first politics and economic development.
Modi has ratcheted up Hindu nationalist rhetoric on the campaign trail, and has sought to present himself as a global leader. His ministers tout him as the steward of a surging India, while his supporters celebrate his campaign promise to make India a developed nation by 2047, when it marks 100 years of independence.
But while India’s economy is among the world’s fastest-growing, many of its people face growing economic distress. The opposition alliance is hoping to tap into this, seeking to galvanize voters on issues like high unemployment, inflation, corruption and low agricultural prices that have driven two years of farmers' protests.
The opposition — and critics — also warn that Modi has turned increasingly illiberal. They accuse Modi of using tax authorities and the police to harass the opposition, and they fear a third term could undermine India's democracy. His Hindu nationalist politics, they argue, has bred intolerance and threatens the country's secular roots.
“Modi has a very authoritarian mindset. He doesn't believe in democracy. He doesn't believe in Parliamentarianism,” said Christophe Jaffrelot, a political scientist who has written about Modi and the Hindu right.
Modi insists that India's commitment to democracy is unchanged. He told a Summit for Democracy meeting in New Delhi in March that “India is not only fulfilling the aspirations of its 1.4 billion people, but is also providing hope to the world that democracy delivers and empowers.”
The Indian leader, who enjoys vast popularity, is targeting a two-thirds majority this time.
The BJP hopes for a landslide win powered by its popular welfare programs, which it says have improved access to clean toilets, health care and cooking gas, as well as providing free grain to the poor. Moves like the construction of a controversial temple to Ram on the site of a demolished mosque, and the scrapping of the disputed Muslim-majority region of Kashmir's former autonomy, may resonate with supporters who hail him as the champion of the Hindu majority.
“Any party that comes back for a third term, and with a brute majority, is a scary prospect for democracy,” said Arati Jerath, a political commentator.
Modi's two terms have seen civil liberties in India come under attack, while implementing what critics say are discriminatory policies. Peaceful protests have been crushed with force. A once free and diverse press is threatened, violence is on the rise against the Muslim minority, and government agencies have arrested opposition politicians in alleged corruption cases.
The BJP has denied its policies are discriminatory and says its work benefits all Indians.
Iran fires air defense batteries in provinces as sound of explosions heard near Isfahan
Iran fired air defense batteries early Friday morning after reports of explosions near the city of Isfahan, the state-run IRNA news agency reported.
It remained unclear if the country was under attack. However, tensions remain high in the wider Middle East after Iran’s unprecedented missile-and-drone attack on Israel.
IRNA said the defenses fired across several provinces. It did not elaborate on what caused the batteries to fire, though people across the area reported hearing the sounds.
The semiofficial Fars and Tasnim news agencies reported the sound of blasts, without giving a cause. State television acknowledged “loud noise" in the area.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Commercial flights began diverting their routes over western Iran without explanation early Friday as one semiofficial news agency in the Islamic Republic reported “explosions” heard over the city of Isfahan. State television acknowledged “loud noise.”
The incident comes as tensions remain high in the wider Middle East after Iran’s unprecedented missile-and-drone attack on Israel.
Dubai-based carriers Emirates and FlyDubai began diverting around western Iran about 4:30 a.m. local time. They offered no explanation, though local warnings to aviators suggested the airspace may have been closed.
The semiofficial Fars news agency reported on explosions being heard over Isfahan near its international airport. It offered no explanation. However, Isfahan is home to a major airbase for the Iranian military, as well as sites associated with its nuclear program.
Iranian state television began a scrolling, on-screen alert acknowledging a “loud noise” near Isfahan, without immediately elaborating.
The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Indonesians leave homes near erupting volcano and airport closes due to ash danger
Indonesian authorities closed an airport and residents left homes near an erupting volcano Thursday due to the dangers of spreading ash, falling rocks, hot volcanic clouds and the possibility of a tsunami.
Mount Ruang on the northern side of Sulawesi Island had at least five large eruptions Wednesday, causing the Center for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation to issue its highest-level alert, indicating an active eruption.
The crater emitted white-gray smoke continuously during the day Thursday, reaching more than 500 meters (1,600 feet) above the peak.
People have been ordered to stay at least 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) from the 725-meter (2,378 foot) mountain. More than 11,000 people live in the affected area and were told to leave. At least 800 have done so.
An international airport in Manado city was temporarily closed Thursday as volcanic ash was spewed into the air.
“We have to close flight operations at Sam Ratulangi Airport due to the spread of volcanic ash, which could endanger flight safety,” said Ambar Suryoko, head of the regional airport authority.
Eruptions Wednesday evening spewed volcanic ash approximately 70,000 feet into the atmosphere, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. The bureau said in a statement Thursday it was tracking and forecasting the ash dispersion.
Indonesia's volcanology center noted the risks from the volcanic eruption include the possibility that part of the volcano could collapse into the sea and cause a tsunami. In December 2018, Indonesia’s Anak Krakatau volcano island erupted and collapsed, losing around 3/4 its volume and triggering a powerful tsunami that killed more than 400 people. An 1871 eruption at Mount Ruang also triggered a tsunami.
Tagulandang Island, east of the Ruang volcano, could be at risk if a collapse occurred. Its residents were among those being told to evacuate.
“People who live in the Tagulandang Island area and are within a 6-kilometer radius must be immediately evacuated to a safe place outside the 6-kilometer radius," Abdul Muhari, spokesperson of the National Disaster Mitigation Agency, said Thursday. “And especially those who live near the coast should be aware of the potential for incandescent rocks to erupt, hot clouds and tsunami waves that could be triggered by the collapse of a volcanic body into the sea.”
The agency said residents will be relocated to Manado, the nearest city, on Sulawesi island — a six-hour journey by boat.
Indonesia, an archipelago of 270 million people, has 120 active volcanoes. It is prone to volcanic activity because it sits along the “Ring of Fire,” a horseshoe-shaped series of seismic fault lines around the Pacific Ocean.
Earthquake measuring 5.6 hits central Turkey
A moderately-strong earthquake struck central Turkey on Thursday, the country’s disaster management agency said. It was not immediately clear if it caused any casualties or damage.
The magnitude 5.6 earthquake occurred in the town of Sulusaray, in Tokat province, some 450 kilometers (280 miles) east of the capital, Ankara, according to the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, or AFAD.
It was felt in neighboring provinces, according to HaberTurk television.
Turkey is crossed by active fault lines and earthquakes are frequent.
A devastating magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck parts of southern Turkey and neighboring Syria last year, killing more than 59,000 people.
Tsunami alert after a volcano in Indonesia has several big eruptions and thousands are told to leave
Indonesian authorities issued a tsunami alert Wednesday after eruptions at Ruang mountain sent ash thousands of feet high. Officials ordered more than 11,000 people to leave the area.
The volcano on the northern side of Sulawesi island had at least five large eruptions in the past 24 hours, Indonesia’s Center for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation said. Authorities raised their volcano alert to its highest level.
At least 800 residents left the area earlier Wednesday.
Japan issues tsunami alert after series of very strong quakes off its northwestern coast
Indonesia, an archipelago of 270 million people, has 120 active volcanoes. It is prone to volcanic activity because it sits along the “Ring of Fire,” a horseshoe-shaped series of seismic fault lines around the Pacific Ocean.
Authorities urged tourists and others to stay at least 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) from the 725-meter (2,378 foot) Ruang volcano.
Officials worry that part of the volcano could collapse into the sea and cause a tsunami as in a 1871 eruption there.
7.6 magnitude earthquake strikes off the southern Philippines, briefly prompting a tsunami warning
Tagulandang island to the volcano's northeast is again at risk, and its residents are among those being told to evacuate.
Indonesia’s National Disaster Mitigation Agency said residents will be relocated to Manado, the nearest city, on Sulawesi island, a journey of six hours by boat.
In 2018, the eruption of Indonesia's Anak Krakatau volcano caused a tsunami along the coasts of Sumatra and Java after parts of the mountain fell into the ocean, killing 430 people.
Iran president warns of 'massive' response if Israel launches 'tiniest invasion'
Iran’s president has warned that the “tiniest invasion” by Israel would bring a “massive and harsh” response, as the region braces for potential Israeli retaliation after Iran’s attack over the weekend.
President Ebrahim Raisi spoke Wednesday at an annual army parade that was relocated to a barracks north of the capital, Tehran, from its usual venue on a highway in the city’s southern outskirts. Iranian authorities gave no explanation for its relocation, and state TV did not broadcast it live, as it has in previous years.
Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel over the weekend in response to an apparent Israeli strike on Iran’s embassy compound in Syria on April 1 that killed 12 people, including two Iranian generals.
Israel, with help from the United States, the United Kingdom, neighboring Jordan and other nations, successfully intercepted nearly all the missiles and drones.
Tensions in the region have increased since the start of the latest Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 7, when Hamas and Islamic Jihad, two militant groups backed by Iran, carried out a cross-border attack that killed 1,200 people in Israel and kidnapped 250 others. Israel responded with an offensive in Gaza that has caused widespread devastation and killed over 33,800 people, according to local health officials.
Currently:
— Israel is vowing to retaliate against Iran, risking further expanding their shadow war.
— U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says Iran’s actions could cause global economic spillovers and warns of more sanctions.
— Citing safety, University of Southern California cancels speech by valedictorian who has publicly supported Palestinians.
— Artist and curators refuse to open an Israeli pavilion at Venice Biennale until there is a cease-fire and hostage deal.
Here is the latest:
RIGHTS GROUP SAYS ISRAELI FORCES JOINED OR FAILED TO STOP SETTLER ATTACKS ON PALESTINIANSJERUSALEM — Human Rights Watch says Israeli forces either took part in or failed to stop settler attacks on Palestinians in the occupied West Bank that displaced hundreds of people from several Bedouin communities last fall.
Israeli military tells Palestinians not to return to north Gaza after witnesses say troops kill 5
Settler violence surged after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that triggered the war in Gaza, leading to the complete uprooting of at least seven Palestinian Bedouin communities and displacement from several others, according to the New York-based rights group.
Settlers launched another wave of attacks late last week after a 14-year-old Israeli boy was killed in what Israeli authorities say was a militant attack. The United Nations’ human rights office on Tuesday called on Israeli security forces to “immediately end their active participation in and support for settler attacks on Palestinians.”
The Human Rights Watch report released Wednesday focused on the earlier rash of violence. The rights group says Israeli settlers assaulted Palestinians, stole their belongings and livestock and threatened to kill them if they did not leave permanently. The settlers also destroyed homes and schools.
The military did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Associated Press.
Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Mideast war, and the Palestinians want the territory to form the main part of their future state. Over 500,000 Israelis live in scores of settlements built across the territory, which is home to some 3 million Palestinians.
The Jewish settlers are Israeli citizens, and many serve in the armed forces. The Palestinians live under seemingly open-ended Israeli military rule, in a situation that Human Rights Watch and other major rights groups say is a form of apartheid, an allegation Israel rejects.
IRAN THREATENS ‘MASSIVE’ RESPONSE IF ISRAEL LAUNCHES ‘TINIEST INVASION’TEHRAN, Iran — Iran’s president has warned that the “tiniest invasion” by Israel would bring a “massive and harsh” response, as the region braces for potential Israeli retaliation after Iran’s attack over the weekend.
President Ebrahim Raisi spoke Wednesday at an annual army parade that was relocated to a barracks north of the capital, Tehran, from its usual venue on a highway in the city’s southern outskirts. Iranian authorities gave no explanation for its relocation, and state TV did not broadcast it live, as it has in previous years.
Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel over the weekend in response to an apparent Israeli strike on Iran’s embassy compound in Syria on April 1 that killed 12 people, including two Iranian generals.
Israel, with help from the United States, the United Kingdom, neighboring Jordan and other nations, successfully intercepted nearly all the missiles and drones.
Israel has vowed to respond, without saying when or how, while its allies have urged all sides to avoid further escalation.
Raisi said Saturday’s attack was a limited one, and that if Iran had wanted to carry out a bigger attack, “nothing would remain from the Zionist regime.” His remarks were carried by the official IRNA news agency.
The shadow war between Iran and Israel has been exposed. What happens next?
Israel and Iran have waged a shadow war for decades, but the strike over the weekend was the first direct Iranian military attack on Israel.
UN APPEALS FOR $2.8 BILLION TO PROVIDE AID TO 3 MILLION PALESTINIANSUNITED NATIONS – The United Nations is appealing for $2.8 billion to provide desperately needed aid to 3 million Palestinians, stressing that tackling looming famine in war-torn Gaza doesn’t only require food but sanitation, water and health facilities.
Andrea De Domenico, the head of the U.N. humanitarian office for Gaza and the West Bank, told reporters Tuesday that “massive operations” are required to restore those services and meet minimum standards — and this can’t be done during military operations.
He pointed to the destruction of hospitals, water and sanitation facilities, homes, roads and schools, adding that “there is not a single university that is standing in Gaza.” De Domenico said there are signs of Israel’s “good intention” to get humanitarian aid into Gaza, but the U.N. keeps pushing because it’s not enough. He pointed to Israeli denials and delays on U.N. requests for aid convoys to enter Gaza.
The U.N. humanitarian official called for a complete change of focus to recognize that preventing famine goes beyond providing flour for bread or pita and to recognize that “water, sanitation and health are fundamental to curb famine.”
IRAQ’S PM SAYS HE URGED CALM AMONG ALL PARTIES IN TALKS WITH BIDENWASHINGTON — Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani says he pressed President Joe Biden on the need “for all parties to calm down” as conflict threatens to worsen further between Iran and U.S. ally Israel.
Al-Sudani spoke to reporters Tuesday night on a Washington visit that included talks with Biden at the White House on Monday.
Saturday’s drone and missile launches by Iran targeting Israel, including some that overflew Iraqi airspace and others that were launched from Iraq by Iran-backed groups, have underscored the delicate relationship between Washington and Baghdad.
Al-Sudani said Iraq, like some other Arab nations, had tried unsuccessfully to talk Iran out of the strikes on Israel. Iran’s attack was in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike that killed senior Iranian military leaders at Iran’s embassy complex in Syria.
Al-Sudani said the decision on allowing Iraqi airspace or soil to be used in any future attacks between Israel and Iran was Iraq’s to make.
Iraqis “reaffirmed Iraq is an independent and sovereign nation,” he said. “We do not want to be a part in this conflict. We discussed this with Iran and with Biden.”
Storm dumps a year and a half's worth of water on parts of UAE, flooding roads and Dubai's airport
Heavy thunderstorms lashed the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, dumping over a year and a half's worth of rain on the desert city-state of Dubai in the span of hours as it flooded out portions of major highways and its international airport.
Meanwhile, the death toll in separate heavy flooding in neighboring Oman rose to 18 with others still missing as the sultanate prepared for the storm.
The rains began late Monday, soaking the sands and roadways of Dubai with some 20 millimeters (0.79 inches) of rain, according to meteorological data collected at Dubai International Airport. The storms intensified around 9 a.m. local Tuesday and continued throughout the day, dumping more rain and hail onto the overwhelmed city.
Dubai returnee arrested with over 1.6Kg gold at Ctg airport
By the end of Tuesday, more than 142 millimeters (5.59 inches) of rainfall had soaked Dubai over 24 hours. An average year sees 94.7 millimeters (3.73 inches) of rain at Dubai International Airport, the world’s busiest for international travel and a hub for the long-haul carrier Emirates.
At the airport, standing water lapped on taxiways as aircraft landed. The airport ended up halting arrivals Tuesday night and passengers struggled to reach terminals through the floodwater covering surrounding roads.
Woman arriving from Dubai arrested with over 8 kg gold at Dhaka airport
Police and emergency personnel drove slowly through the flooded streets of Dubai, their emergency lights shining across the darkened roads. Lightning flashed across the sky, occasionally touching the tip of the Burj Khalifa, the world's tallest building. The city's driverless Metro saw disruptions and flooded stations as well.
Schools across the UAE, a federation of seven sheikhdoms, largely shut ahead of the storm and government employees were largely working remotely if able. Many workers stayed home as well, though some ventured out, with the unfortunate stalling out their vehicles in deeper-than-expected water covering some roads.
Authorities sent tanker trucks out into the streets and highways to pump away the water. Water poured into some homes, forcing people to bail out their houses.
The country's hereditary rulers offered no overall damage information or injury information for the nation, as some slept into their flooded vehicles Tuesday night. In Ras al-Khaimah, the country's northernmost emirate, police said one 70-year-old man died when his vehicle was swept away by floodwater.
Fujairah, an emirate on the UAE's eastern coast, saw the heaviest rainfall Tuesday with 145 millimeters (5.7 inches) falling there.
Authorities cancelled school and the government instituted remote work again for Wednesday.
Rain is unusual in the UAE, an arid, Arabian Peninsula nation, but occurs periodically during the cooler winter months. Many roads and other areas lack drainage given the lack of regular rainfall, causing flooding.
Rain also fell in Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
In neighboring Oman, a sultanate that rests on the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula, at least 18 people had been killed in heavy rains in recent days, according to a statement Tuesday from the country's National Committee for Emergency Management. That includes some 10 schoolchildren swept away in a vehicle with an adult, which saw condolences come into the country from rulers across the region.
Israel says it will retaliate against Iran. These are the risks that could pose to Israel
Israel is vowing to retaliate against Iran, risking further expanding the shadow war between the two foes into a direct conflict after an Iranian attack over the weekend sent hundreds of drones and missiles toward Israel.
Israeli officials have not said how or when they might strike. But as countries around the world urge Israel to show restraint and the threat of a multi-front war mounts, it’s clear that a direct Israeli attack on Iranian soil would lead to major fallout.
Iran says it carried out the strike to avenge an Israeli airstrike that killed two Iranian generals in Syria on April 1. It has pledged a much tougher response to any Israeli counterattack attack on its soil.
World leaders urge restraint as Israel says it will respond to Iran’s attack
With Israel focused on its war against Hamas in Gaza, and already battling Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon every day, the U.S. has urged Israel to show restraint.
U.S. officials say President Joe Biden has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. will not participate in any offensive action against Iran, and the president made “very clear” to Netanyahu “that we do have to think carefully and strategically” about the risks of escalation.
Israel’s war cabinet has spent the last two days debating their next move. Here are some considerations key to their decision.
INCREASING ISRAELI ISOLATIONIsrael’s successful air defense Saturday night — conducted in tandem with the U.S., Britain, France and Jordan — bought the country a brief moment of international support and sympathy after months of mounting international isolation over the Gaza war. The six-month offensive has killed nearly 34,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, and unleashed a humanitarian catastrophe.
A coalition of international partners helped Israel defend itself effectively. Israel’s military says 99% of the weapons were intercepted, with few reaching Israeli airspace. The attack caused only minor damage and wounded one person: a 7-year-old girl.
Israeli military tells Palestinians not to return to north Gaza after witnesses say troops kill 5
This coalition worked under the leadership of the U.S. Central Command, which oversees American forces in the region. It works closely with Israel and moderate Arab countries to form a unified front against Iran.
Jordan, a country whose population is predominantly pro-Palestinian, joined the effort, despite being at odds with Israel over the war in Gaza, calling its participation self-defense.
It also appears likely that help may have come from regional powerhouse Saudi Arabia, which does not have official relations with Israel. A map released by Israel shows many of the Iranian missiles flying through Saudi airspace.
Israel has been careful not to identify its Arab partners, but an Israeli air force official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the mission, said Israeli warplanes needed to fly “east of Israel” to shoot down missiles.
Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank, said Israel would be risking this goodwill if it acts alone.
“Israel can take advantage of this and buy itself a lot of credit right now, if it does not launch a massive retaliatory attack," he said. "But if it does attack, a lot of credit is lost.”
The tacit support of Arab states does not mean they would assist Israel in a counterattack on Iran. Any air or missile response other than ballistic missiles — which would arc over neighboring countries’ airspace rather than through it — would require overflights of surrounding countries, which technically would require Israel obtain permission from those Arab neighbors, said Daniel Byman, a senior fellow with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“With Saudi Arabia and Jordan, there’s kind of a route and access questions,” in terms of whether they would grant Israel overflight clearance.
“From Iran’s point of view, that would be seen as a hostile act,” Byman said. “And even though these countries don’t like Iran, they’re not terribly eager to be seen on the side of Israel doing that.”
FEARS OF A MULTI-FRONT WARA major retaliatory strike on Iranian soil risks sparking a full-scale regional war, so any response must be carefully calculated.
A direct strike on Iranian soil would almost certainly result in a brutal counterattack and risk prompting Hezbollah to launch further attacks. The Iranian-backed Lebanese group has a far more powerful arsenal than Hamas, but has so far shown hesitancy about engaging in an all-out war.
Some 60,000 citizens in northern Israel already have been forced to evacuate their homes due to ongoing exchanges with Hezbollah. Heavier fighting would likely force them to spend even more time away from home.
A direct conflict would also further stretch Israel's military, remove its focus from Gaza and hamper Israel’s war-wearied economy.
Any major attack on Iranian soil could also undermine shaky U.S. support for the war.
Two U.S. officials said Israel has not yet told the U.S. how it intends to respond. But the officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe diplomatic discussions, said Israel has signaled that whatever it does will be designed to prevent a worsening of the already tense regional security situation. That could point to a more limited action, such as a strike on Iranian proxies across the region or a cyber attack on Iran.
Tamar Hermann, a polling expert at the Israel Democracy Institute, says most Israelis are in favor of some sort of military response as long as it is coordinated with regional allies, including the United States.
“If it is done with no consultation and no agreement with allies … support will be much smaller,” Hermann said.
MILITARY CAPACITYIsrael’s army is vastly superior to others in the region. It possesses a range of high-tech weaponry, including F35 fighter planes that can launch long-range munitions. Experts say it has the ability to directly strike Iran or its proxies in the region.
Fabian Hinz, a weapons expert and research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the Iranian air force is “not even remotely comparable.” He said the force is composed of a collection of planes from the 1980s and 90s, with some dating back to the reign of the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi who ruled the country until 1979.
The extent of the Islamic republic’s air defense system is less known, he said. Many of Iran’s missile sites and nuclear installations are deep underground, making them difficult to hit, Hindz added. Israel might also need the agreement of Gulf Arab countries to use their airspace — something that is not guaranteed.
“I don’t think it’s going to be a full-scale Israeli attack against many targets all over Iran," said Raz Zimmt, another senior researcher at Israel's INSS. "It will probably be limited against one or two, perhaps inside Iran.”
Yellen says Iran's actions could cause global economic spillovers as White House vows new sanctions
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Tuesday of potential global economic damage from rising tensions in the Middle East as the Biden administration said it was readying new sanctions in response to Iran's malevolent activity in the region.
Yellen spoke out against Iran's “malign and destabilizing activity” in remarks ahead of this week's spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, saying Iran's weekend missile and drone attack on Israel “underscores the importance of Treasury’s work to use our economic tools to counter Iran’s malign activity.”
She added: “From this weekend’s attack to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Iran’s actions threaten the region’s stability and could cause economic spillovers.”
World leaders urge restraint as Israel says it will respond to Iran’s attack
Iran's attack on Israel early Sunday came in response to what it says was an Israeli strike on Iran's consulate in Syria earlier this month. Israel’s military chief said Monday that his country will respond to the attack, while world leaders caution against retaliation, trying to avoid a spiral of violence.
As the IMF and its fellow lending agency, the World Bank, hold their spring meetings this week, high on the agenda are the fast-rising tensions between Iran and Israel and what escalation could spell for the global economy.
Meanwhile, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan also said Tuesday that coming U.S. sanctions would target Iran's missile and drone program and entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran’s Defense Ministry.
“We anticipate that our allies and partners will soon be following with their own sanctions," Sullivan said in a statement. "In addition, we continue to work through the Department of Defense and U.S. Central Command to further strengthen and expand the successful integration of air and missile defense and early warning systems across the Middle East to further erode the effectiveness of Iran’s missile and UAV capabilities.”
Who gained what from Iran's unprecedented attack on Israel
Israel and Iran have been on a collision course throughout Israel’s six-month war against Hamas militants in Gaza. The war erupted after two militant groups backed by Iran led an attack on Oct. 7 that killed 1,200 people in Israel and kidnapped 250 others. An Israeli offensive in Gaza has caused widespread devastation and killed over 33,000 people, according to local health officials.
“We’ve targeted over 500 individuals and entities connected to terrorism and terrorist financing by the Iranian regime and its proxies since the start of the Administration," Yellen said, citing sanctions against Iran’s drone and missile programs, militant groups Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah, and other Iraqi militia groups.
Yellen said she expected the additional sanctions to be announced in the coming days.
The annual gathering will take place as other ongoing conflicts, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine, threaten global financial stability.
Yellen in February offered her strongest public support yet for the idea of liquidating roughly $300 billion in frozen Russian Central Bank assets and using them for Ukraine’s long-term reconstruction.
She said Tuesday that the U.S. is “continuing to work with our international partners to unlock the economic value of immobilized Russian sovereign assets and ensure that Russia pays for the damage it has caused.” Yellen added that she will meet with Group of Seven finance leaders Wednesday to continue discussions on the topic and will look at “a series of possibilities, ranging from actually seizing the assets to using them as collateral.”
Another major issue for this year's meetings on the U.S. side, Yellen said, will be ongoing conversations about Chinese industrial policy that poses a threat to U.S. jobs and the global economy. She traveled to Guangzhou and Beijing earlier this month, to hold “difficult conversations” with counterparts over what she describes as China's overcapacity in its wave of low-priced Chinese green tech exports that could overwhelm factories in the U.S. and make it impossible to compete.
Yellen said she plans to meet later this week with her Chinese counterparts for a fourth meeting of the U.S.-China Economic and Financial Working Groups, "to share information, identify potential areas of cooperation, and, when we disagree, frankly communicate concerns.”
U.S. Treasury and China’s Ministry of Finance launched the economic working groups in an effort to ease tensions and deepen ties between the nations.
Biden's latest plan for student loan cancellation moves forward as a proposed regulation
President Joe Biden’s latest plan for student loan cancellation is moving forward as a proposed regulation, offering him a fresh chance to deliver on a campaign promise and energize young voters ahead of the November election.
The Education Department on Tuesday filed paperwork for a new regulation that would deliver the cancellation that Biden announced last week. It still has to go through a 30-day public comment period and another review before it can be finalized.
It’s a more targeted proposal than the one the U.S. Supreme Court struck down last year. The new plan uses a different legal basis and seeks to cancel or reduce loans for more than 25 million Americans.
Conservative opponents, who see it as an unfair burden for taxpayers who didn’t attend college, have threatened to challenge it in court.
The Democratic president highlighted the the plan during a trip to Wisconsin last week, saying it would provide “life-changing” relief. He laid out five categories of people who would be eligible for help.
The new paperwork filed by the Education Department includes four of those categories, while a separate proposal will be filed later addressing how people facing various kinds of hardship can get relief.
The broadest forgiveness category would help borrowers who owe more than they originally borrowed because of runaway interest. It would eliminate up to $20,000 in interest for anyone in that situation, while those with annual incomes below $120,000 and enrolled in income-driven repayment plans would get all their interest erased with no maximum limit. It would be done automatically.
Another category would cancel loans for people who have been paying back their undergraduate student loans for at least 20 years, and those who have been paying graduate loans at last 25 years.
It would automatically cancel loans for those who went to colleges or programs considered to have low financial value. Borrowers would be eligible for cancellation if they attended a program that leave graduates with earnings no better than those with a high school diploma, for example, or programs that leave graduates with large shares of debt compared with their incomes.
Borrowers who are eligible for other federal forgiveness programs but haven’t applied would also get loans erased. Federal education officials would use existing data to identify those people and offer relief. It’s intended to reach those who don’t know about other programs or have been deterred by complicated application processes.
The proposal was hashed out over the course of several hearings as part of a federal rules process that gathers advice from outside experts. The plan was drafted with the help of students, college officials, state officials, borrower advocates and loan servicers.
During that process, advocates pushed for a fifth category of forgiveness for people who have different kinds of hardship that prevent them from being able to repay their loans. The Education Department said it's still working on the details of that rule, with a separate proposal to come “in the coming months.”
The department said the hardship proposal will offer cancellation to borrowers who are at high risk of defaulting on their loans along with those who face other hardships, including high medical and caregiving expenses. That proposal will mirror one agreed upon by outside experts during the rulemaking process, the agency said.
It usually takes months for a proposed rule to be finalized, and months more before it can take effect. The Biden administration said it plans to start implementing some parts of the new proposal as soon as this fall, using the education secretary's authority to implement rules early in certain cases.
Republicans are staunchly opposed to any broad student loan cancellation, saying it’s an unfair bailout for people who went to college. Two coalitions of Republican states have sued the Biden administration to block a separate repayment plan that offers an accelerated path to loan forgiveness.
The White House says it’s confident the new plan is on solid legal ground, saying the Higher Education Act gives the education secretary the power to waive student loans in certain cases.