Opinion
China’s protests are small but significant
Reports coming out from China speak of troubles whose roots lie in economic policies. They are immediately linked to Covid restrictions which have been called “draconian” but for a long while had been seen as effective. However, its "zero Covid" policy shows that the virus has not been conquered as yet as some had thought and hoped.
Commentators say , this is not the main reason why the street protests came but it accelerated the public angst over economic difficulties that had been brewing over many years. Now that has peaked and caused public unrest. The source of such information and comments are of course Western media and academia that have a stake in China’s economic pain. It means the global market competition will be less with the West and the market supremacy it had for long can continue longer. This is only to be expected.
Read more: China’s Communist Party vows 'crackdown on hostile forces' as public tests Xi
It would however be a bit foolish to depend on Western opinion alone to judge what is going on in China. Suffice to say that its public anger that has gone public which is the first instance since 1989 leading to what had been called the “Tienanmen square “ conflict. This writer had the chance to visit China soon after that and remembers the “business as usual” life on the streets of Beijing and Guang Zu. However, the lips of all were sealed and at the official meeting, visitors were told not to mention the event at all.
Security and economics
For the moment China is focusing on taking security measures. Authorities have decided not to exert too much force and the demos have almost disappeared overnight anyway. That was to be expected. These were not organized protests but spontaneous bursts of frustration. However, actions will certainly be taken and the security forces will certainly intern many of the street protestors.
If economic policies are responsible to which have been added the burden of zero covid, the problem lies with problem solving methods not ideology. Its covid handling was tough but initially successful and had its reluctant admirers in the West also. But China’s covid policy shows that the virus is stronger than the administrative methods in the country of its origin in suppressing it. There was a major gap which we were learning now.
Read more: China lockdown protests pause as police flood city streets
The main issue is however economic. It’s been said that China’s property market is in shambles and the debt burden has been piling up making the next few years very difficult. The US has also cut off chip supply, adding to the difficulties, making it part of a much bigger and much more important global economic war.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh will be affected by China’s economic difficulties and should start assessing what needs to be done. Media should pick up the topic and push the experts to probe the issue. Sadly, both our media and academia are more into media comments rather than in-depth research. That Bangladesh will have to share the problems is certain and with the high volume debt payments to begin in 2026 , Bangladesh can’t afford to take this lightly along with the rest of our woes.
December 10: Naya Paltan, Paltan Maidan or somewhere else?
The BNP rally supposed to be held on 10th December in Dhaka has become a point of near conflict already. BNP wants to hold it at Naya Paltan in front of its office and the AL government insists that this won’t be allowed. With a promised crowd of a million they must go to the Paltan Maidan.
Clearly, it’s become the first significant test of will between the two parties and a foretaste of things to come. Both have declared their positions to be non-negotiable. And both parties have said that they have upped the political ante and pushed it into a conflict space. Who will blink first or will no one remain to be seen? And so what happens next?
BNP position
BNP has been holding a series of rallies all over the country and it’s going to be apexed by the Dhaka meet. In each of the meetings, the crowd has been high despite transport strikes and so on. Supporters have arrived even two or three days before. It’s been the best BNP show for years.
Read: Amid relative ease, BNP’s 8th divisional rally begins in Cumilla
BNP has said that it considers the Dhaka rally the peak and statements around December 10 have been many. The objective as stated was to “take over” the city of Dhaka so to speak and have it so full of BNP supporters that as per BNP, AL/GOB presence will be marginalized. BNP has asked its supporters from all over the country in the city so that Dhaka has more BNP supporters than all others. Expected crowd estimates have tanged from 5 lakhs to several millions. Going by the crowd size elsewhere this estimate is not wild.
So why would BNP want to go for a smaller space ? BNP has not explained yet.
AL and GOB position
AL has said that its workers will be “guarding” various points of the city and be present everywhere. They have declared that if the BNP or crowd goes out of control they will not take it too kindly and will act and let none go unpunished.
The IG of Police while participating in a talk show has been direct and said that any large BNP meeting held any place that is not sanctioned by the authorities will not be tolerated. He has sounded a warning that it may lead to a law and order situation and the police are responsible for maintaining that. He referred to the constitution as well saying meetings are subject to permission given. And no permission has been given as none have been sought.
Read: BNP can hold rally at Suhrawardy Udyan on December 10: Home Minister
There should be no doubt that the scenario is being primed up for a “showdown” between the two forces, the AL/GOB and the Opposition.
No matter what happens the situation can go chaotic. BNP sees this as political mobilization and the AL sees it as an excuse to create unrest and pile on pressure. BNP has said that there will be no election with the AL in power and it will be removed through a movement. And 10th is a final kick off of the final lap.
AL has said, it’s all BNP talk and it’s ready to confront any situation. The IG reminded that the 2014 valence cost several police lives and many disabling injuries. BNP also has a long list of grievances. So they all seem to be crashing towards a conflict.
One wonders given all the hardline positions taken, if any party can retreat or not from them now. If violence does occur, crowds spilling all over the city as BNP claims will, AL and the police won’t take it lying down. What happens next seems more appropriate than ever before.
Are Argentina still genuine contenders?
Argentina was the name on top of all pundits’ lists whenever asked who are the favorites to win this World Cup leading up to the tournament in Qatar. Their predictions were not just wishful. Besides the added incentive of watching one of the greatest players in Lionel Messi signing off his international career with the grandest of honours, it had proper substance given Argentina were entering the World Cup with the longest unbeaten streak for any team heading into the tournament: 36 games including that Copa America final against Brazil at the Maracanã.
That unbeaten streak coupled with the fact that Argentina is 3rd on the world rankings and their opening fixture opponents Saudi Arabia are ranked 51st would most definitely ensure a straight forward victory for the Argentines right? Well fate had something different in store. Saudi Arabia stunned the entire footballing fraternity by beating their accomplished opponents by a scoreline of 2-1 despite falling behind in the opening 10 minutes to a penalty taken calmly by the ever-reliable left foot of Messi.
Read more: Qatar World Cup: Saudi Arabia's stunning victory end Argentina's 36-match winning streak
This loss raises huge question marks over Argentina’s credentials as potential winners. But at the end of day any Argentina loss is a huge event stirring all kinds of questions and doubts. The fact remains that on paper they are a well balanced team with an impeccable record backing the squad and its manager leading into the World Cup. The manager though needs to make a few bold decisions ahead of the next game, like starting Lisandro Martinez who has been in sensational form for Manchester United this season, ahead of Romero or Otamendi at the heart of their defense. Also despite the abundance of attacking talent at their disposal, Argentina’s gameplay still seems heavily dependent on Lionel Messi and the brilliant moments he can churn out. Defensively Argentina is a robust team but their midfield and attack need to up their game and be more cohesive to sustain meaningful pressure throughout the 90 minutes.
Read more: ‘Now's the time to be more united than ever’: Messi after Argentina's shocking defeat to Saudi Arabia
Argentina is a team which enjoys an incredible fan following throughout the world thanks to their glorious history and the pull of Lionel Messi. This army of unconditionally loving fans traveled to the stadium in Qatar, and tuned into their televisions around the world in anticipation of a thumping win to establish their authority on this World Cup but in return they got more questions than answers at the end of the game. Is this team really ready to finish the wait of 36 years? Is Lionel Messi going to sign off with the ultimate glory? Is Argentina’s notorious inconsistency about to creep in again at the biggest stage of world football? These are all questions that will continue to bother the Argentine supporters till they take the field in their next battle against Mexico on the 27th of November.
England crush Iran to raise hope again: "It might just come home".
“It’s coming home”, the theme slogan resonates euphoria for England fans and invites ridicule from other fans. The chant was making the rounds resolutely when Gareth Southgate’s team made a brave run to the semis in the World Cup 2018 defying all expectations. It has been a case of going close to home but not actually there. England has failed to jump over the final hurdles in their last two appearances in major tournaments.
The last one in the Euros 2020 final where they lost to Italy on penalties was a rather bitter pill to swallow for the English. Most of these players have now been there with Southgate’s set up for a while now, and the new ones are promising young talents raring to go make their mark on the world stage.
Iran in their opening game was a much more important test for their world cup credentials than many would give credit for. For starters, Iran is the 20th placed team in world rankings but even if we ignore that, England previously have been notorious for losing such games on the world’s biggest stage. One doesn’t have to go back much further than 2010 when England drew their opening game to the USA, who in comparison to their opponents can be labeled footballing minnows. The result was so shocking that much of the world media had misquoted the score in England’s favor the following morning. Dismantling an Iran team which must have been determined to make a statement performance by a 6-2 margin in their opening game shows the maturity of the England team.
Gareth Southgate’s biggest achievement as the team boss would be instilling a sense of national unity which even two world cups ago was divided by club loyalty. Iconic players such as Rio Ferdinand and Frank Lampard have gone on record to say how their club rivalries played a part in hostility within the dressing room. Now in 2022, such dressing room politics seem a tale of yesteryears. From Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka to Manchester United’s Marcus Rashford, they are one team.
Read more: FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022: England make strong statement with a thumping win over Iran
England’s new “golden generation” will however face challenges such as their approach of making this attack-heavy team retreat back into a defensive back-five whenever it comes up against top opponents. Their approach in their upcoming game against USA, which provides a potential route for revenge for 2014, and an always fierce battle against Wales will provide a clearer picture of how far England has come as a team. But the signs in the opening game were promising for this team and their avid supporters. For now the chants of “It’s coming home” seem more hopeful than delusional.
Read more: England Squad analysis for 2022 World Cup
So it's farewell time Ali Imam bhai
One by one, most of the names of my own past are tiptoeing away from the scene. It’s not just the elderly but the near contemporary like Ali Imam bhai who was just a couple of years senior to us. We were both students together in the same university many moons ago and into cultural activities as well. It was soon after liberation and cultural freedom was in the air. Somehow we all ended up in the TSC auditorium so many times, me more an organizer and him, more a participant. He was already one of those young ones who was already a star.
Ali Imam bhai was not the only one of course and there were others like M.Hamid bhai, K.M. Harun bhai and others. Interestingly many of these performing artists ended up in the TV world, BTV. It was then the lone star and Ali Imam bhai went there too. And for him there was no looking back.
“Let a storm rise”
I remember a set speech competition where my task was to hold the cup from which various participants picked a topic and 5 minutes later would deliver a speech on it. It must have been the winter of 1973. Ali Imam bhai picked up the topic ,a line from a famous song, “ emon ekta jhor uthuk” (Let a storm arise ) and spoke scintillatingly on it. Of course he won the top prize but more than that it showed his ability to articulate on any topic and not just make sense but speak forcefully too. He was gifted and he went on from achievement to achievement with an ease few can muster.
We met professionally several times in our life but when I was working for UNICEF we were close. He was also freelancing for Channel I and Faridur Reza Sagar bhai. Together they made a team and while Sagar bhai was the organizer, Ali Imam bhai was the creative soul. Later on , he became even more closely involved and ran a UNICEF project on media and children. He knew children, he understood the media and together they made the best combo.
His achievements as a writer for juveniles literature was unparalleled and it was not the Bangla Academy award that certifies it but the fact that he wrote more than 300 volumes plus. He probably would have gone on to write another 100 had ill health not cut him down in what could easily have been his literary prime.
For him and many others, 1971 was a storm and it threw to the fertile earth many talents and unleashed the power of several generations that has constructed the socio-cultural framework of Bangladesh. He was one of the architects of that.
Time and farewell
I remember years back when we met at the Bangla Academy book fair. We sat down at one of the impromptu tea stalls and sipped tea discussing nothing in particular. I asked him about a book he had mentioned doing with me on history for children. He replied,“ Oh, Afsan, how I wish I had enough time to do all the projects I have planned. I just have no time. “
Farewell, Ali Imam bhai. Now you will have all the time in the world.
Qatar World Cup: Biggest party or scam in the world?
As the world watched the FIFA World Cup 2022 – hosted by Qatar – opening ceremony full of entertainment and anticipating a whole month of high-octane football action, I had a twinge of doubt. Are the ethical and moral circumstances surrounding this latest edition of the World Cup Ok?
A couple of days back I was watching the recently released Netflix documentary, “FIFA Uncovered”. It is a documentary exposing all the dirty laundry of the governing body of the most loved and followed sport on earth. Some of the revelations put an end to any doubt of FIFA’s love for corruption. The ex-co members of FIFA deeming Qatar worthy of hosting the 2022 World Cup is the shining jewel at the top of FIFA’s corruption crown!
Qatar beat the USA and Canada to become the hosts of the 2022 World Cup, defying all logic as at the time of the voting, Qatar had next to no infrastructure worthy of hosting an event of this magnitude in comparison to their opponents vying for the same project. Despite all this, Qatar was able to “buy” their way into becoming the hosts as the documentary shows.
Read: Qatar ready to open Mideast’s first FIFA World Cup before leaders, fans
A segment shows the immense Qatari investment in French ventures following the ensuring of Michel Platini’s (former UEFA president and FIFA ex-co member) vote going for Qatar’s bid. Interestingly, Qatar’s investment in Paris Saint Germain, the biggest club in France and the club Lionel Messi plays for now, is a part of Qatar’s investment in France following Platini’s tilt.
Sports washing has long been an issue plaguing the world of sport. It’s basically a bid to use sports to improve reputations and brands damaged by wrongdoings of many kinds. What better sport than the most famous one known to mankind? So, an investment of USD 12 billion to host this World Cup was worth it. This included building stadiums, hotels and even entire cities from scratch. Qatar’s bid to sportswash their country’s image of human rights violation (let’s not get into the details) was just the latest in a long run which included the 1936 “Nazi Olympics”.
Read: FIFA World Cup 2022: Things you need to know
As a football romantic, I am cynical of the credibility of the 2022 World Cup and its shenanigans, but as Morgan Freeman said during his speech at the opening ceremony in what according to me was the highlight of the evening, “What unites us here is so much greater than what divides us. How can we make it last longer?” I do hope the most emotionally stirring game in the world does take center stage amidst all this controversy, and if not anything else, we as a world community can enjoy our heroes fighting it out far away from the dirt that touched the hands of FIFA officials and celebrate the ultimate glory anyone related to football can dream of!
Can Bangladesh Bank make depositors feel safe ?
The recent statement by the Bangladesh Bank that everything is fine with the banking sector and depositor’s money is safe has caused both mirth and irritation. Basically, this anxiety is created by both formal and informal media systems that regularly report on the ill health of the banking system. Given the mess the financial sector is in, the central bank doesn’t come out as more reliable than these sources.
Dhaka Tribune reports, “The Bangladesh Bank today said that the deposits of common people in banks are completely safe. The central bank said this on Sunday in response to propaganda on various social media stating that the commoners are withdrawing their deposits from the banks. This is not correct and is being made out of conspiracy, according to a press release.”
Read: Banks have Tk 1.69 lakh crore excess liquidity: Bangladesh Bank
How BB was so sure it’s a conspiracy we are not sure but the public is very nervous and Bangladesh Bank had better accept that reality. In the last few months, the economy has not performed in exactly a stellar manner. There are several reasons including the dire global situation as all know and are regularly told. What they don’t mention are the internal problems that haunt the financial sector including corruption and incompetence.
Dollar drama
Not many own dollars but it’s the biggest question today. National economy is now being measured according to dollar reserves and rates. But “something is rotten in the state of Denmark” as Hamlet said is now the main anxiety. And like it or not it's BB’s responsibility to supervise and steer the ship through the foreign exchange sea. As media reports, (New Age) , as many as 20 banks are unable to make payment of import LCs including state owned banks. The source quoted in Bangladesh Bank itself.
The reasons are allegedly ‘poor remittance’ and import earnings. Meanwhile the forex interbank market has become dysfunctional. As a result, some foreign banks have started to limit credit lines for Bangladesh. Bangladeshi banks have reportedly failed to pay Standard Chartered Bank, Mashreq Bank, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Commerz Bank, and Axis Bank.
Interestingly, Islami Bank which channels about 30% of foreign earnings also failed to make payment to foreign banks. Why , we have not been told. State-owned Sonali Bank, Agrani Bank, Janata Bank and Rupali Bank are the other names. These banks have sought the intervention of the central bank which has been refused. LC opening has declined by about 40 % according to the report.
Meanwhile, default loans continue to rise and grow as corny capitalism finds banks as their best friend.
So why do we need the central bank if it can’t do its job?
So when Bangladesh Bank says, public money is safe, one has difficulties believing it. The banking sector resembles not the proverbial Wild West but the Cox’s Bazar scenario where the border between law and disorder is not always clear. It is supposed to monitor the banking and non-banking finance sectors but the central bank would not pass that exam. The failure of the shuttered banks like Basic, Farmers etc and sick banks like National and a host of NBFIs are good examples of inadequate supervision.
The reason why the dollar market faces a crisis is also because Bangladesh Bank took no steps to prevent the acts which led many banks and attendant outfits to commit irregularities. It developed no guidelines and never implemented any.
Read: Money changers can keep Tk 50 lakh max: Bangladesh Bank
Bangladesh Bank may argue that they are overridden by the Finance Ministry or other political agencies but the point is, those working for it have also made a choice of being there. It can’t serve as an excuse. I too have made choices to work for an outfit and accepted the editorial policy of the House. When it became too much, I left.
But it also means that Bangladesh Bank, due to its own performance record, as a guardian, is not in a position to reassure depositors. It has not been able to prevent any crime. It’s visible only when they are committed. Depositors' money may be safe but that’s not due to what Bangladesh Bank says or did.
Pakistan’s politics of FIR registrations
When a Supreme Court directive is needed to get an FIR registered, one has to accept that the formal system is not really in place. And when that FIR leaves out all the names originally mentioned by the accused, one asks if that qualifies as an FIR either. Imran Khan’s “attack” has triggered a dismal display of how weak the formal state system has become or perhaps never grew up in Pakistan.
Barring the army, everything looks like a rickety structure that gets blown away at the first swish of any adverse wind. The conflict between Imran’s PTI and the Shehbaz ML + the army is not what can make people feel confident about Pakistan’s political future. Although located in the formal space, the political functioning is informal and that is what is ailing Pakistan.
Read more: Imran Khan far better actor than Shahrukh and Salman, says Pakistani politician
Sindh Labour Minister Saeed Ghani has called for an investigation into the number of bullets Imran Khan took. He has asked for a team to investigate whether or not the PTI chief sustained four bullet injuries or less.. When a minister belonging to the party in power squabbles over the number of bullets a person gets hit by, it's not even an absurd situation. It’s surreal.
The FIR drama
PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry has said the people will never accept that a particular group remains above the law. This was in connection with the refusal or delay in registering the FIR over the assassination attempt of Imran Khan. Imran had mentioned three names and this included a senior official of Pakistan intelligence services. The army had responded by calling such allegations baseless and unacceptable.
The FIR was however filed after the Pakistan Supreme Court’s five-member bench, headed by Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Umar Ata Bandial ordered the Punjab police chief Faisal Shahkar to register the FIR.
It was done so but it does not contain the names of interior minister Rana Sanaullah, Pakistan army’s senior official DG(C) ISI Major General Faisal Naseer and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif whom Imran Khan had mentioned in his application as the three prime accused.
The FIR only named Naveed, the person who was caught at the meeting. Charges of terrorism, murder and attempt to murder have been made against him in the FIR.
Naveed had said after his arrest that he was angry and wanted to kill Imran Khan because “they were playing loud music on their deck while the Azaan is being recited, so I decided to kill him.” he has denied any political links.
Read more: ‘Because I fell, one of the shooters thought I’d died, and left’: Imran Khan
Politics after assassination FIR
The registration of the FIR by the police after being directed by the Supreme Court shows that there is some judicial clout left. But leaving out the very names which had made the FIR unacceptable also shows how hollow that is. Everyone’s angle has been kept it seems but the FIR’s value is zero as the main persons are left out, the original reason for refusing.. However, PTI has gained much from the refusal to register and the ML and the army has also shown how much clout it really has. For the moment it seems a stalled game for all.
ML MPs have been abusing PTI and Imran Khan happily in the parliament but that is never where politics is played in Pakistan. From where it does, other unknown moves are on from which Imran and Shehbaz have both gained in the past and will do so in future. What the army probably didn’t expect was for Imran to fight back as he has done and that has embarrassed the army.
The army is however used to being embarrassed and won’t feel too bothered as nothing more happens beyond that. It’s aware that politicians are both weak and dependent on them to gain or stay in power. Given that equation nothing really has changed. Nothing really can change. But how much the majority of Pakistanis really want things to change is also not asked.
Pakistan’s politics of conspiracy will not stop
Pakistan’s history of conspiracy politics seems to go on and on. Although it has paid what is possibly the biggest price for any state-sponsored conspiracy flops – the 1971 war – its appetite for political conspiracy goes on. And in each of them, the army seems to be involved. Given the current critical phase with ex-PM Imran Khan naming the current PM, the Interior Minister, and a senior Intelligence official as the trio who planned to kill him but failed, things have worsened. Conspirators rule the roost including Imran Khan.
Imran was hit by bullets but has said that he survived because he fell down and the would-be killers thought he was dead. One person died and several were injured and Imran continues his political war from his hospital bed. He has asked his followers to continue their protests and Pakistan is under severe stress and unrest.
The “typing error” conspiracy state
In many ways, Pakistan is a product of conspiracy. The Lahore Resolution of 1940 which specifically spoke of “two states”, was amended by Jinnah arguing that the “two states” was a “typing error”. Jinnah’s act was more of a historical error resulting from political conspiracy. Jinnah’s Pakistan lasted only 25 years and though Bangladesh paid for it with blood, Pakistan paid with the ignominy of losing its half and its army’s humiliating surrender to arch-enemy India.
Read: Ex-Pakistan PM Imran Khan wounded in firing at anti-govt rally
In 1954, the elected government of East Pakistan was removed through a false accusation that the leaders were planning secession. In 1958, the army directly took over fully and destroyed whatever hope there was of one state. In 1968, it tried to stop the 6-points autonomy movement by falsely involving Sk. Mujib in the Agartala conspiracy case.
In 1969, the army moved in again and after the election of 1970 refused to hand over power to the elected party and instead offered the night of March 25. And the civilian politician Z.A. Bhutto was part of it too.
Post-1971
One would have thought the army had learned its lesson but the Bhutto hanging, the Gen. Zia plane blow-up, the various attempts on the lives of various leaders and the killing of Benazir Bhutto shows that a tradition of violent conspiracy has been established. Pakistan politics is about conspiracies and usually, the military is a player, directly or indirectly.
Read: Pakistan's ex-PM Imran Khan stable after shooting at anti-govt rally
Imran Khan himself is a product of the military in politics. He was replaced by Shehbaz as the ex-cricket captain no longer suited them. Now barred from holding office, he has taken to the street invoking the example of 1970 in East Pakistan which effectively ended Pakistan.
The Dawn writes in its editorial, “By going public with them ( accusations ), Mr. Khan has taken a step that he may find impossible to reverse. It seems highly unlikely that Shehbaz Sharif or Rana Sanaullah will step down on Mr. Khan’s demands, and it is improbable that the military will be interested at this time in removing a top official merely on his complaint. .. the acrimony between the state and the PTI will continue to grow. “
It goes on to blame the bungled management of the case by the Punjab police and “conflicting statements from the centre and Punjab have all added to the confusion and fuelled conspiracy theories.”
Read More: Imran Khan accuses Pak army of recreating 1971-like situation
Meanwhile, the army has called the allegations baseless and condemned Imran Khan. But that hardly matters. It has become embroiled in a crisis that may/can only end through more conspiracy and violence. The only option for Imran is the street, the only for the rest is to intern him, and for Pakistan more chaos. It’s the people who remain prisoners in the hands of its army and politicians that pay the price.
Brazil: Can Lula the Lefty do better?
Brazilian voters narrowly elected former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, as the next President defeating Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing incumbent. The vote percentage was 50.9% against 49.1% so it’s not a sweeping victory but a narrow squeak through. Lula is beloved of the Global Left who has no serious icons left in the world now. But the troubles may not be entirely over. Bolsonaro had indicated that he may not hand over power that easily but he seems to have relented now.
Bolsonaro, is an ex-army who had often said that he won't accept an electoral loss. Because the loss margin is less than 1% he was confident of street and public support. Bolsonaro supporters termed the election as a fraud and called for military intervention.
However, several key allies have recognized the result leaving Bolsonaro looking increasingly isolated. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden and the presidents of all of Brazil’s South American neighbors have congratulated Lula, further increasing the pressure on the incumbent.
Lula wants power not a fight and said, “As of January 1, 2023, I will govern for 215 million Brazilians and not just for those who voted for me. There are not two Brazils. We are one country, one people, and one great nation.”
Who is Lula?
Lula is a trade union leader who established the leftist Worker’s Party which won the Presidential election in 2002. He ruled for 2 terms and they coincided with a surge with booming value of Brazilian commodities and rising exports to China. His major expansion in social programs, particularly Bolsa Família which gave the poor “cash for school attendance” made him very popular. His departure in 2010 was with an 83% approval rating.
In 2017, Lula was convicted in a corruption case and sentenced for 10 years. But in 2021, Brazil’s Supreme Court overruled Lula’s conviction, saying his right to a fair trial had been compromised. But Brazilians are split on his guilt or innocence. 44% believe he was rightly convicted, while 40% believe his conviction was unjust.
Read: PM Sheikh Hasina congratulates Lula on winning Brazil election
Why did Bolsanaro lose ?
The main enemy is Covid and the global economic downturn. Bolsonaro handled it poorly with more people dying than all countries except the US. After Lula’s release, his alliance with disgruntled rights wingers tipped the scale. Lula has promised to restore public services now sunk low due to years of underinvestment, lower domestic energy prices, battle inflation and easing food insecurity. Some are however critical of his policies as he has declared nothing. Lula told TIME magazine, in March 2022. “ I’ve been a President twice already. We don’t discuss economic policies before winning the elections. First, you have to win the elections.”
With eight years of deep economic crisis, this round for Lula will be tough. Lula had greatly benefited from a commodity economic boom that was over. Now, global economic turmoil from the war in Ukraine is driving up energy prices, while a years-long drought is curbing food production.
Bolsonaro’s global image is very negative due to his ravaging of the Amazon and handling of the Covid crisis. He called it a “little flu” but ended up with 700,000 recorded COVID-19 deaths. But Bolsonaro is hardly over. Many of his ministers have won the election and his political movement is very alive. Even the former environment minister won a seat in Brazil’s Congress at the first round of elections making his right-wing Liberal Party the largest party in both the upper and lower house. The governorships of Brazil’s three most economically-important states were also won by Bolsonaro allies. Lula’s challenge is very big indeed.
Lula’s world has changed
Read: Brazil election: Lula defeats Bolsonaro to become president again
Lula is being welcomed by the liberal section of the West because of his environmentalist agenda. But Lula is also not an ally of the West as some think. He is not supporting Ukraine against Russia
“The United States has a lot of political clout. And Biden could have avoided [the war], not incited it, Biden could have taken a plane to Moscow to talk to Putin. This is the kind of attitude you expect from a leader.”
The world has changed much since Lula was the President last. Not only has the economy become more globalized and interconnected but the challenges are in every sector including health and war. Lula has returned to power when the world is in its worst shape in many ways since the last few decades.
In this world, a better environment and economy doesn’t depend on Brazil or Lula anymore. Russia and the West have shown their capacity to manage a world in which they reign as superpowers is very limited. Commodity prices have shifted by artificial demand loss generated by the war in Ukraine. The West did push the world into an acute shortage zone willingly, whether it’s the Russians or the US.
Why Lula should be responsible for saving the environment when the West doesn’t take on climate change issues is a question he won’t answer but will become a big reality. The One world never existed, never will. It’s how Brazil plays that game in the absence of any serious “political” globalization, that global issues including climate change should be considered.