Amid the rise in Covid cases triggered by local transmission of the Delta variant, experts predict that Bangladesh may see the peak of the current wave of the deadly virus in the third week of July next.
Using a mathematical model, Bangladesh Como Modelling Group, a panel of local and international health experts, also said the number of daily cases is likely to cross 10,000-mark in mid-July, putting a serious pressure on the country’s healthcare system.
They, however, said the severity of the virus infection and fatality rates during the probable peak on the eve of Eid-ul-Azha will depend on the effectiveness of preventive measures, management of cattle markets and control on public movement.
The experts appreciated the government’s move to isolate Dhaka from other parts of the country by suspending road, rail and waterway communications, saying that it may help slow down the virus transmission.
Bangladesh reported 20.27% positivity rate and 1.59% fatality rate on Wednesday, the highest since April 21.
DGHS spokesperson Dr Robed Amin said the Covid-19 situation has worsened in the country as the virus has been spreading fast in bordering and other areas of the country. “The number of cases and deaths are gradually rising."
He said they fear that a terrible situation lies ahead if people do not strictly maintain the health safety rules.
Robed said the virus transmission has been showing a gradual upward trend from June 16 and the death rate is now very high.
He said over 70,000 people were diagnosed with Covid this month due to the outbreak of the virus in the frontier areas.
Robed said the Corona situation has deteriorated in Barishal, Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Mymensingh and Rangpur divisions over the last one week.
He said the virus infection has declined in Rajshahi while Sylhet is in a somewhat stable condition. “Khulna division witnessed the highest number of Covid deaths over the last one week.”
The DGHs spokesman said there are many empty beds and ICUs in government and private hospitals in different parts of the country, including Dhaka, but the picture of hospitals in border areas is different as most of them are overwhelmed.