China
Why China's stand on Russia and Ukraine is raising concerns
Nearly one year after Russia invaded Ukraine, new questions are rising over China’s potential willingness to offer military aid to Moscow in the increasingly drawn-out conflict.
In an interview that aired Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said American intelligence suggests China is considering providing arms and ammunition to Russia, an involvement in the Kremlin’s war effort that he said would be a “serious problem.”
China has refused to criticize Russia for its actions or even to call it an invasion in deference to Moscow. At the same time, it insists that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations must be upheld. The question now is whether China is willing to convert that rhetorical backing into material support.
Here's a look at where China stands on the conflict.
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DOES CHINA BACK RUSSIA IN ITS WAR ON UKRAINE?
China has tried to walk a fine — and often contradictory — line on the Russian invasion.
China says Russia was provoked into taking action by NATO's westward expansion. Just weeks before the Feb. 24, 2022, invasion, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing for the opening of the Winter Olympics, at which time the sides issued a joint statement pledging their commitment to a “no limits" friendship. China has since ignored Western criticism and reaffirmed that pledge.
Also Read: Russia to test new hypersonic missile in drills with China and South Africa
But China has yet to confirm the visit Putin has said he expects from Xi this spring.
China is “trying to have it both ways," Blinken said Sunday on NBC. "Publicly, they present themselves as a country striving for peace in Ukraine, but privately, as I said, we’ve seen already over these past months the provision of non-lethal assistance that does go directly to aiding and abetting Russia’s war effort.”
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HAS CHINA PROVIDED MATERIAL SUPPORT TO RUSSIA?
So far, China's support for Russia has been rhetorical and political, with Beijing helping prevent efforts to condemn Moscow at the United Nations.
Blinken, at a security conference in Munich, Germany, said the United States has long been concerned that China would provide weapons to Russia and that “we have information that gives us concern that they are considering providing lethal support to Russia in the war against Ukraine.” That came a day after Blinken held talks with Wang Yi, the Chinese Communist Party’s most senior foreign policy official, in a meeting that offered little sign of a reduction in tensions or progress on the Ukraine issue.
“It was important for me to share very clearly with Wang Yi that this would be a serious problem,” Blinken said, referring to potential military support for Russia.
The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, also expressed her concern about any effort by the Chinese to arm Russia, saying “that would be a red line.”
Also Read: Putin, Xi vow closer ties as Russia bombards Ukraine again
Russian and Chinese forces have held joint military drills since Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, most recently sending ships to take part in exercises with the South African navy in a key shipping lane off the South African coast.
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WHAT HAS CHINA SAID ON THE MATTER?
Following the meeting between Wang and Blinken, China's Foreign Ministry issued a statement that it has always played a constructive role in the Ukraine conflict by adhering to principles, encouraging peace and promoting talks.
The ministry said the China-Russia partnership “is established on the basis of non-alignment, non-confrontation, and non-targeting of third parties,” and that the U.S. was adding “fuel to the fire to take advantage of the opportunity to make profits.”
Beijing says it has continued a normal trade relationship with Russia, including purchases of oil and gas, as have other countries such as India. However, that trade is seen as throwing an economic lifeline to Moscow, but there have been no documented cases of China providing direct aid to the Russian military along the lines of the inexpensive military drones that Iran sells to Moscow.
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WHAT COULD HAPPEN IF CHINA AIDS RUSSIA?
“To the best of our knowledge, they haven’t crossed that line yet,” Blinken told NBC on Sunday.
Blinken did not specify what measures the U.S. could take in response to Chinese military support for Russia, but efforts to put a floor under ties that have deteriorated to their lowest level in decades have so far been unsuccessful. The U.S. has sought to limit Chinese access to the latest microprocessors and manufacturing equipment, and has continued to challenge Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea.
For China, the most sensitive issue is U.S. support for Taiwan, the self-governing island democracy that Beijing considers its own territory to be conquered by military force if deemed necessary. Taiwan is a major customer for U.S. defensive arms and has hosted a growing number of prominent American elected officials, enraging Beijing.
Meanwhile, U.S. Congress members have called for the banning of TikTok and other Chinese-owned social media platforms, as well as increased sanctions on Chinese firms backed by the Communist Party, which wields ultimate control over the Chinese economy and suppresses independent media and political opposition voices.
Paws for healing: How dogs aid mental health therapy in China
Following a successful six-month probationary period, a mental health center in Chengdu, the capital of southwest China's Sichuan Province, has officially welcomed two dogs to carry out psychological assistance therapy through animals.
The dogs are part of the animal-assisted therapy (AAT) in the treatment process for emotionally disturbed patients carried out by the Fourth People's Hospital of Chengdu. This marks the first time that AAT has been implemented in southwest China, and highlights the hospital's innovative approach to mental health treatment.
According to Chen Jiajia, who works with the hospital, the two dogs, "Lidabao" and "Xuegao," were previously employed in nursing homes for seniors and orphanages before joining the hospital.
The dogs used in the treatment have been carefully selected from among family pets that have undergone specialized training to develop strong bonds with humans.
Given that they reside with their owners, the therapy dogs are expected to introduce a welcoming and serene ambiance to the treatment process and the dog owners are also allowed on the site.
Having passed rigorous evaluations, both dogs were granted official working certificates and currently provide treatment twice a week.
"AAT has proven to be a successful method for treating depression and autism, and has been extensively employed in treatment programs overseas, aiding in the recovery of patients," Chen said.
Chen went on to share that earlier in January, a severely depressed boy, who didn't talk to anyone and even left a death note, took part in the trial treatment. During their initial encounter, the dog seemed to sense his depression as it instinctively nestled into his arms.
The boy who never showed his emotions couldn't hide his surprise, and later shared his story about himself and his pet, Chen explained.
The profound experience with the dog had a transformative effect on the boy's emotional state, leading him to open up to the psychologists and engage wholeheartedly in his treatment. As a result, he made remarkable progress and was eventually discharged from the hospital with a newfound sense of hope and optimism.
According to Chen, the interaction between patients and dogs can be instrumental in helping patients open up emotionally, and this process is further facilitated by the participation of psychologists who provide timely counseling and treatment.
During treatment, psychologists will give careful attention to what the patient is saying in order to identify any topics of interest. By establishing a genuine and trusting relationship with each patient, the psychologists can eventually create a supportive environment that is conducive to follow-up psychotherapy.
The hospital said treatment frequency will be adjusted according to each patient's needs and response to therapy, with the goal of providing more effective care for a greater number of patients
China, EU should strengthen cooperation: Chinese diplomat
Faced with a world of change and disorder, China and Europe should strengthen cooperation to inject more stability into the world, Wang Yi, a senior Chinese diplomat, said on Saturday.
Wang, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, made the remarks when meeting with the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell during the 59th Munich Security Conference.
Wang, also a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, said that China and the EU are partners, not rivals, and their consensus far outweighs their differences.
This year marks the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and the EU. Both sides should remain committed to the partnership, respect each other's core interests, cherish the fruits of cooperation, and usher in an even better next two decades, he noted.
Also Read: Blinken: China’s balloon incursion ‘must never happen again’
China has successfully pulled through a pandemic and is ready to fully restart exchanges with Europe and the rest of the world, Wang said.
He suggested that the two sides may actively prepare for a new China-EU leaders' meeting, make full use of high-level dialogue mechanisms in various fields, and bring bilateral exchanges back to pre-epidemic levels as soon as possible.
The essence of China-EU economic and trade relations is complementary and mutually beneficial. Both sides should maintain openness and cooperation, resist decoupling, and work together to maintain the stability of the global production and supply chain, Wang said.
Wang expressed the hope that the EU and its members abide by the one-China principle and maintain the political foundation of China-EU relations.
Borrell said that the European side has always been promoting EU-China relations in a mature and candid manner, stressing that the EU firmly upholds the one-China policy, recognizes the government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government representing the whole of China, supports China's efforts to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and will translate the principle into the political relations between the EU and China.
The EU hopes to strengthen high-level exchanges with China and promote cooperation in various fields, which benefits not only Europe and China but also the entire world, Borrell said.
The EU side is willing to work with China to prepare for the next meeting between EU and Chinese leadership for in-depth exchanges of views on issues of common interest, said Borrell.
On the Ukraine crisis, Wang stressed that the Chinese side adheres to promoting peace talks and is willing to strengthen communication with the EU, making consistent efforts toward a political settlement.
Senior Chinese diplomat urges U.S. to correct mistakes in airship incident
A senior Chinese diplomat on Saturday urged the United States to show sincerity, correct its mistakes, acknowledge and repair the damage it has done to the China-U.S. relations over the Chinese civilian unmanned airship incident.
Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, made the remarks when answering questions on China-U.S. relations at a China session of the ongoing 59th Munich Security Conference (MSC).
Calling the incident a political farce created by the U.S., Wang said China had clearly told the U.S. that the Chinese civilian unmanned airship, affected by the Westerlies and with limited self-steering capability, deviated from its planned course and entered the U.S. airspace, and China had urged the U.S. to jointly handle the issue in a rational and professional manner.
"Unfortunately, the U.S. ignored the basic facts and brazenly sent a fighter jet to shoot down the non-threatening airship with a missile," he said. "Such an unthinkable and hysterical action is, without doubt, excessive use of force, and clearly violates common practice and relevant international law."
Also Read: China, EU should strengthen cooperation: Chinese diplomat
China firmly opposes and has strongly protested against the U.S. over its action, said Wang, also a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee.
"A lot of balloons are flying over the Earth every day. Does the U.S. want to shoot them all down?" he questioned. "Such an action is no proof of the American power, but the exact opposite."
He urged the U.S. to stop doing such absurd things out of domestic political needs and to correct its mistakes.
The senior Chinese diplomat said the underlying reason why the unexpected incident has caused such a stir in bilateral relations is the United States' wrong perception and strategic misjudgment of China.
Wang said China's policy toward the U.S., based on the clear and transparent principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, encourages exploring the right way for two major countries with different social systems, histories and cultures to get along.
On the contrary, the U.S. sees China as the gravest geopolitical challenge and strategic competitor in its China policy, and it is using all means possible to block and suppress China with such an erroneous view of China, Wang noted.
He said that China has never been afraid of competition despite all the U.S. talking about competing with China, but the competition should be fair and rules-based.
The Chinese diplomat denounced the United States' CHIPS and Science Act as unilateral and self-serving, saying that the act uses state power to suppress Chinese companies, violates the rules of the World Trade Organization and seriously disrupts the stability of the global industrial and supply chains.
The act shows that the U.S. is standing against the free trade that it advocates, Wang said, adding that it will not only undermine the legitimate rights and interests of all other countries, but also compromise the credibility and interests of the U.S. itself.
"A virtuous man acquires wealth in an upright and just way," Wang cited an ancient Chinese saying, noting that the U.S. has torn apart its disguise in an attempt to blatantly plunder.
Wang urged the U.S. to view China's development in a fair and objective way, pursue a positive and pragmatic China policy, and work together with China to bring China-U.S. relations back to the track of sound and stable development.
This serves the interests of the two countries and peoples and also meets the common expectation of the international community, he added.
Some 150 senior officials, including over 40 heads of state and government, and leaders of international organizations joined this year's MSC to discuss pressing global security challenges and concerns.
Blinken: China’s balloon incursion ‘must never happen again’
The top diplomats from the United States and China met on Saturday in the first high-level contact between their countries since the U.S. shot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon two weeks ago, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken sending the message that Beijing’s surveillance program had been “exposed to the world.”
Blinken and Wang Yi, the Chinese Communist Party’s most senior foreign policy official, held the hourlong talks in Munich, where they were attending an international security conference, according to the U.S. State Department.
“I made very clear to him that China sending its surveillance balloon over the United States in violation of our sovereignty, in violation of international law, was unacceptable and must never happen again,” Blinken said Saturday in an interview for CBS’ “Face the Nation.”
His spokesman, Ned Price, said in a statement that Blinken also told the Chinese official that his nation’s “high-altitude surveillance balloon program — which has intruded into the airspace of over 40 countries across five continents — has been exposed to the world.”
Blinken had canceled a trip to Beijing earlier this month due to the balloon incident, which has become a major issue of contention between the two countries. A meeting at the conference in Germany had been widely anticipated.
Blinken also told Wang that the U.S. does not seek conflict with China, repeating a standard talking point that the Biden administration has provided since it has come into office.
“The United States will compete and will unapologetically stand up for our values and interests, but that we do not want conflict with the PRC and are not looking for a new Cold War,” Price said. Blinken “underscored the importance of maintaining diplomatic dialogue and open lines of communication at all times.”
In addition to the balloon incident, Price said Blinken had reiterated a warning to China on providing assistance to Russia to help with its war against Ukraine, including assisting Moscow with evading sanctions the West has imposed on Russia.
“I warned China against providing materiel support to Russia,” Blinken said in a tweet. “I also emphasized the importance of keeping open lines of communication.”
Earlier Saturday, Wang had renewed Beijing’s criticism of the United States for shooting down the balloon, arguing that the move did not point to U.S. strength.
Beijing insists the white orb shot down off the Carolina coast on Feb. 4 was just an errant civilian airship used mainly for meteorological research that went off course due to winds and had only limited “self-steering” capabilities.
Wang, the director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, repeated that insistence in a speech at the conference and accused the U.S. of violating international legal norms in destroying the object with a missile fired from an U.S. fighter jet.
“The actions don’t show that the U.S. is big and strong, but describe the exact opposite,” Wang said.
Wang also accused the U.S. of denying China’s economic advances and seeking to impede its further development.
“What we hope for from the U.S. is a pragmatic and positive approach to China that allows us to work together,” Wang said.
His comments came shortly before an address to the conference by Vice President Kamala Harris, who didn’t mention the balloon controversy or respond to Wang’s comments. She stressed the importance of upholding the “international rules-based order.”
She said Washington is “troubled that Beijing has deepened its relationship with Moscow since the war began” in Ukraine and that “looking ahead, any steps by China to provide lethal support to Russia would only reward aggression, continue the killing and further undermine a rules-based order.”
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Lee reported from Washington.
Russia to test new hypersonic missile in drills with China and South Africa
Russia, China and South Africa are set to begin naval drills off South Africa’s Indian Ocean coast Friday in a demonstration of the three countries’ close ties amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s tense relationship with the West.
The 10 days of exercises, named Mosi II, will coincide with the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.
A Russian frigate, the Admiral Gorshkov, arrived in Cape Town earlier this week sporting the letters Z and V on its sides, letters that mark Russian weapons on the front lines in Ukraine and are used as a patriotic symbol in Russia.
In protest, a small yacht flying Ukraine’s flag sailed by the Russian frigate in Cape Town’s harbor. South African protesters opposed to the exercises are expected to demonstrate at the Russian Consulate in Cape Town on Friday.
The arrival of the Admiral Gorshkov has stirred considerable controversy because it is armed with the latest Zircon hypersonic missiles, a weapon that Russia says can penetrate any missile defenses to strike targets at sea and on land.
The warship is set to test-fire a Zircon missile during the joint naval drills, according to Russian state news agency Tass. The test will be the first launch of the missile in an international exercise.
In addition to the Admiral Gorshkov, other ships participating in the maritime exercises will include a Russian oil tanker for refueling, a South African frigate and three Chinese ships - a destroyer, a frigate and a support vessel, according to a South African military statement.
The joint naval exercises also come as China’s relations with Washington are tense after its balloon sailed across the U.S. and was eventually shot down by the U.S.
The maritime exercises will be staged from Durban and Richards Bay, ports in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province.
Media coverage of the drills has been restricted.
South Africa has faced domestic criticism for participating in the drills. The opposition Democratic Alliance said it shows South Africa is not neutral in Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The South African National Defence Force has described the naval exercises with China and Russia simply as “a multinational maritime exercise.” The naval drills will “strengthen the already flourishing relations between South Africa, Russia and China” with the aim of sharing “operational skills and knowledge,” the military said in a statement.
At least 350 members of South Africa’s navy and other military branches are expected to participate in the exercise, the government has said.
The three countries previously held the Mosi I naval drills in Cape Town in 2019.
South Africa is among many African countries that have friendly relations with Moscow and abstained from voting on a United Nations resolution condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Russia and the United States have courted support from South Africa since the war in Ukraine started, indicating Pretoria’s influence as a strategic partner on the continent. The two super powers have vied for influence in Africa, sending top officials on diplomatic missions to the continent in recent months.
High-ranking U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, recently visited South Africa to deepen diplomatic, political and economic ties. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa visited the White House in September 2022.
During a visit to South Africa last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov criticized the West’s actions in support of Ukraine and emphasized Russia’s strong ties with South Africa and other nations on the continent.
Dhaka air ‘hazardous’, most polluted in the world this morning
Dhaka's air quality is in the "hazardous" zone for the second consecutive day this morning.
With an air quality index (AQI) score of 329 at 9:07 am, the capital of Bangladesh ranked first in the list of cities worldwide with the worst air quality.
An AQI between 151 and 200 is considered "unhealthy," 201 and 300 "very unhealthy," and 301 to 400 is considered "hazardous," posing serious health risks to residents.
Ghana’s Accra, China’s Beijing and Pakistan’s Lahore occupied the second, third and fourth spots in the list, with AQI scores of 266, 223 and 200, respectively.
Read more: Dhaka air 3rd most polluted in the world this morning
In Bangladesh, the AQI is based on five criteria pollutants – particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), NO2, CO, SO2 and ozone.
Dhaka has long been grappling with air pollution issues. Its air quality usually turns unhealthy in winter and improves during the monsoon.
Air pollution consistently ranks among the top risk factors for death and disability worldwide.
Breathing polluted air has long been recognised as increasing a person's chances of developing heart disease, chronic respiratory diseases, lung infections and cancer, according to several studies.
US holds drills in South China Sea amid tensions with China
The United States Navy and Marine Corps are holding joint exercises in the South China Sea at a time of heightened tensions with Beijing over the shooting down of a suspected Chinese spy balloon.
The 7th Fleet based in Japan said Sunday that the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit have been conducting “integrated expeditionary strike force operations” in the South China Sea.
It said exercises involving ships, ground forces and aircraft took place Saturday but gave no details on when the began or whether they had ended.
China claims virtually the entire South China Sea and strongly objects to military activity by other nations in the contested waterway through which $5 trillion in goods are shipped every year.
The U.S. takes no official position on sovereignty in the South China Sea, but maintains that freedom of navigation and overflight must be preserved. Several times a year, it sends ships sailing past fortified Chinese outposts in the Spratly Islands, prompting protests from Beijing.
The U.S. has also been strengthening its defense alliance with the Philippines, which has faced encroachment on islands and fisheries by the Chinese coast guard and nominally civilian but government-backed fleets.
The U.S. military exercises were planned in advance. They come as already tense relations between Washington and Beijing have been exacerbated by a diplomatic row sparked by the balloon, which was shot down last weekend in U.S. airspace off the coast of South Carolina.
The U.S. said the unmanned balloon was equipped to detect and collect intelligence signals, but Beijing insists it was a weather research airship that had accidently blown off course.
The balloon prompted Secretary of State Antony Blinken to abruptly cancel a high-stakes trip to Beijing aimed at easing tensions.
After first issuing a highly rare expression of regret over the balloon, China has toughened its rhetoric, calling the U.S. shootdown an overreaction and a violation of international norms. China's defense minister refused to take a phone call from U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to discuss the matter.
The United States has since blacklisted six Chinese entities it said were linked to Beijing’s aerospace programs as part of its response to the incident. The House of Representatives also voted unanimously to condemn China for a “brazen violation” of U.S. sovereignty and efforts to “deceive the international community through false claims about its intelligence collection campaigns.”
The balloon was part of a large surveillance program that China has been conducting for several years, the Pentagon said. The U.S. says Chinese balloons have flown over dozens of countries across five continents in recent years, and it learned more about the balloon program after closely monitoring the one shot down near South Carolina.
In its news release, the 7th Fleet said the joint operation had “established a powerful presence in the region, which supports peace and stability."
“As a ready response force, we underpin a broad spectrum of missions including landing Marines ashore, humanitarian disaster relief, and deterring potential adversaries through visible and present combat power," the release said.
US blacklists 6 Chinese entities over balloon program
The United States on Friday blacklisted six Chinese entities it said were linked to Beijing's aerospace programs as part of its retaliation over an alleged Chinese spy balloon that traversed U.S. airspace.
The economic restrictions followed the Biden administration's pledge to consider broader efforts to address Chinese surveillance activities and will make it more difficult for the five companies and one research institute to obtain American technology exports.
The move is likely to further escalate the diplomatic row between the U.S. and China sparked by the balloon, which was shot down last weekend off the Carolina coast. The U.S. said the balloon was equipped to detect and collect intelligence signals, but Beijing insists it was a weather craft that had blown off course.
The incident prompted Secretary of State Antony Blinken to abruptly cancel a high-stakes trip to Beijing aimed at easing tensions.
The U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security said the six entities were being targeted for “their support to China's military modernization efforts, specifically the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) aerospace programs including airships and balloons.”
“The PLA is utilizing High Altitude Balloons (HAB) for intelligence and reconnaissance activities,” it said.
Read more: US says China balloon could collect intelligence signals
Deputy Secretary of Commerce Don Graves said on Twitter his department “will not hesitate to continue to use" such restrictions and other regulatory and enforcement tools "to protect U.S. national security and sovereignty.”
The six entities are Beijing Nanjiang Aerospace Technology Co., China Electronics Technology Group Corporation 48th Research Institute, Dongguan Lingkong Remote Sensing Technology Co., Eagles Men Aviation Science and Technology Group Co., Guangzhou Tian-Hai-Xiang Aviation Technology Co., and Shanxi Eagles Men Aviation Science and Technology Group Co.
On Friday, a U.S. military fighter jet shot down an unknown object flying off the remote northern coast of Alaska on orders from President Joe Biden. The object was downed because it reportedly posed a threat to the safety of civilian flights, instead of any knowledge that it was engaged in surveillance.
But the twin incidents in such close succession reflect heightened concerns over China’s surveillance program and public pressure on Biden to take a tough stand against it.
'It just rang': In crises, US-China hotline goes unanswered
Within hours of an Air Force F-22 downing a giant Chinese balloon that had crossed the United States, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reached out to his Chinese counterpart via a special crisis line, aiming for a quick general-to-general talk that could explain things and ease tensions.
But Austin's effort Saturday fell flat, when Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe declined to get on the line, the Pentagon says.
China’s Defense Ministry says it refused the call from Austin after the balloon was shot down because the U.S. had “not created the proper atmosphere” for dialogue and exchange. The U.S. action had “seriously violated international norms and set a pernicious precedent,” a ministry spokesperson was quoted as saying in a statement issued late Thursday.
It's been an experience that's frustrated U.S. commanders for decades, when it comes to getting their Chinese counterparts on a phone or video line as some flaring crisis is sending tensions between the two nations climbing.
From Americans' perspective, the lack of the kind of reliable crisis communications that helped get the U.S. and Soviet Union through the Cold War without an armed nuclear exchange is raising the dangers of the U.S.-China relationship now, at a time when China's military strength is growing and tensions with the U.S. are on the rise.
Without that ability for generals in opposing capitals to clear things up in a hurry, Americans worry that misunderstandings, false reports or accidental collisions could cause a minor confrontation to spiral into greater hostilities.
And it's not about any technical shortfall with the communication equipment, said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of Indo-Pacific studies at the German Marshall Fund think tank. The issue is a fundamental disparity in the way China and the U.S. view the value and purpose of military-to-military hotlines.
U.S. military leaders’ faith in Washington-to-Beijing hotlines as a way to defuse flare-ups with China’s military has been butting up against a sharply different take — a Chinese political system that runs on slow deliberative consultation by political leaders and makes no room for individually directed, real-time talk between rival generals. And Chinese leaders are suspicious of the whole U.S. notion of a hotline. They see it as an American channel for talking their way out of blowback for a U.S. provocation.
“That's really dangerous,” Assistant Secretary for Defense Ely Ratner said Thursday of the difficulty of military-to-military crisis communications with China, when Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley pressed him about China's latest rebuff on Beijing's and Washington's hotline setup.
U.S. generals are persisting in their efforts to open more lines of communication with Chinese counterparts, the defense official said, testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “And unfortunately, to date, the PLA is not answering that call,” Ratner said, referring to China's People's Liberation Army.
Ratner accused China of using vital channels of communication simply as a blunter messaging tool, shutting them down or opening them up again to underscore China's displeasure or pleasure. In Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning referred questions about Wei’s refusal to take Austin’s call to the Defense Ministry,
China's resistance to military hotlines as tensions increase puts more urgency on efforts by President Joe Biden and his top civilian diplomats and security aides to build up their own communication channels with President Xi Jinping and other top Chinese political officials, for situations where military hotlines may go unanswered, U.S. officials and China experts say.
Both U.S. and Chinese militaries are building up for a possible confrontation over U.S.-backed self-ruled Taiwan, which China claims as its territory. The next flare-up seems only a matter of time. It could happen with an expected event, such as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's promised visit to Taiwan, or something unexpected, like the 2001 collision between a Chinese fighter and a U.S. Navy EP-3 reconnaissance plane over the South China Sea. Without commanders talking in real-time, Americans and Chinese would have one less way of averting greater conflict..
“My worry is that the EP-3 type incident will happen again,” said Lyle Morris, a country director for China for the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2019 to 2021, now a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “And we will be in much different political environments of hostility and mistrust, where that could go wrong in a hurry."
Biden has emphasized building lines of communications with China to “responsibly manage” their differences. A November meeting between Xi and Biden yielded an announcement the two governments would resume a range of dialogues that China had shut down after an August Taiwan visit by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Last weekend, the U.S. canceled what would have been a relationship-building visit by Secretary of State Antony Blinken after the transit of the Chinese balloon, which the U.S. says was for espionage. China claims it was a civilian balloon used for meteorological research.
The same week that Chinas balloon flew over the U.S., Austin was in the Philippines to announce an expanded U.S. military footprint there, neighboring China, noted Tiehlin Yen, director of the Taiwan Center for Security Studies, a think tank. “America is also very nationalistic these days,” Yen said.
“From a regional security perspective, this dialogue is necessary,” Yen said.
What passes for military and civilian hotlines between China and the U.S. aren't the classic red phones on a desk.
Under a 2008 agreement, the China-U.S. military hotline amounts to a multistep process by which one capital relays a request to the other for a joint call or videoconference between top officials on encrypted lines. The pact gives the other side 48 hours and up to respond, although nothing in the pact stops top officials from talking immediately.
Sometimes when the U.S. calls, current and former U.S. officials say, Chinese officials don’t even pick up.
“No one answered. It just rang,” recounted Kristen Gunness, a senior policy analyst at the Rand Corporation. Gunness was speaking about a March 2009 incident when she was working as an adviser to the Pentagon’s chief of naval operations. Chinese navy vessels at the time surrounded a U.S. surveillance ship in the South China Sea and demanded the American leave. U.S. and Chinese military officials eventually talked - but some 24 hours later.
It took decades of Washington pushing to get Beijing to agree to the current system of military crisis communications, said David Sedney, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense who negotiated it.
“And then once we had it in place, it was clear that they were very reluctant to use it in any substantive purpose,” Sedney said.
Americans' test calls on the hotline would get picked up, he said. And when Americans called to give congratulations on some Chinese holiday, Chinese officials would pick up and say thanks, he said.
Anything more sensitive, Sedney said, the staffers answering the phone “would say, ‘We’ll check. As soon as our leadership is ready to talk, we’ll get back to you.' Nothing would happen."