Omicron
Booster at least 80% effective against severe Omicron
UK researchers have analysed the likely impact that a Covid booster shot will have on Omicron and say it could provide around 85% protection against severe illness.
The protection is a bit less than vaccines gave against earlier versions of Covid, reports BBC.
But it means the top-up dose should still keep many people out of hospital.
It comes as a record 861,306 number of booster jabs and third doses were given in the UK on Thursday.
The modelling, from the team at Imperial College London, is based on limited information on Omicron.
The researchers say there is a high degree of uncertainty until more real-world information is gathered about this new variant that is spreading quickly.
Experts are still trying to figure out how mild or severe Omicron will turn out to be.
Vaccines help teach the body how to fight Covid. But the current ones in use were not designed to combat the heavily-mutated Omicron variant, meaning they are not a perfect match.
To get round that, people in the UK are being advised to have a booster dose to build up higher antibody levels to fight the virus.
Antibodies can stick onto the virus to stop it entering cells and replicating.
Studies have suggested a 20 to 40-fold reduction in the ability of these antibodies to take out the virus in double-vaccinated people.
READ: US faces a double coronavirus surge as omicron advances
The preliminary work from Imperial assumes there will be a drop in vaccine efficacy against Omicron.
Even with a booster, protection against severe disease from Omicron may be around 80 to 85.9%, compared to around 97% for Delta - the other variant that is currently dominant in the UK.
However, there are other parts of the immune system, such as T cells, that can fight Covid too. The modelling could not assess the impact of these.
One of the Imperial researchers Prof Azra Ghani said: "One remaining uncertainty is how severe the disease caused by the Omicron variant is compared to disease caused by previous variants.
"Whilst it may take several weeks to fully understand this, governments will need to put in place plans now to mitigate any potential impact.
"Our results demonstrate the importance of delivering booster doses as part of the wider public health response."
Dr Clive Dix, former chair of the UK Vaccine Taskforce, said: "There is a huge amount of uncertainty in these modelled estimates and we can only be confident about the impact of boosters against Omicron when we have another month of real-world data on hospitalisation, ICU [intensive care] numbers and deaths.
"It remains the case that we still need to get vaccines current and future to the whole world."
Cases of Omicron are rising - and there's more to come.
The UK has recorded 3,201 new cases of the Omicron variant, up from yesterday's figure of 1,691.
It takes the total number of confirmed Omicron cases in the UK to 14,909 - although the true figure is believed to be much higher because not all labs can detect the variant and not everyone will come forward for testing.
READ: Pfizer confirms COVID pill’s results, potency versus omicron
So how long will it go on for? The modellers aren't sure yet.
They're talking about peaks early in the new year - if you keep on doubling and doubling and doubling cases, there'll eventually be more people getting infected than there are people in the UK - so there is a limit on this.
The real question - which still hasn't been answered - then becomes: how ill does it make people and how much pressure is it going to put on the healthcare system?
UK COVID cases hit record; Top doctor warns of worse to come
The U.K. recorded the highest number of confirmed new COVID-19 infections Wednesday since the pandemic began, and England’s chief medical officer warned the situation is likely to get worse as the omicron variant drives a new wave of illness during the Christmas holidays.
Professor Chris Whitty described the current situation as two epidemics in one — with omicron infections rising rapidly even as the country continues to grapple with the older delta variant, which is still causing a large number of infections. Public health officials expect omicron to become the dominant variant across the U.K. within days. Omicron already accounts for a majority of cases in London.
The U.K. recorded 78,610 new infections on Wednesday, 16% higher than the previous record set in January. While scientists are still studying the risks posed by the highly transmissible omicron variant, Witty said the public should be braced for the figures to continue rising in coming weeks.
“There are several things we don’t know,’’ Whitty said. “But all the things we do know are bad, the principal one being the speed at which this is moving. It is moving at an absolutely phenomenal pace.’’
The comments came on the day that the U.K. government implemented new rules ordering masks to be worn in most indoor settings in England and requiring proof of vaccination or a negative coronavirus test to enter nightclubs and large crowded events.
Britain is also accelerating its the national vaccination program, with a goal of offering a booster dose to every adult by the end of December. The government said within days it will open new mass vaccination centers at sports stadiums around the country, including Wembley, the 90,000-seat national soccer stadium in London.
Whitty advised people to limit their social contacts, putting a priority on those that are the most important.
“I am afraid there will be an increasing number of omicron patients going into the NHS, going into hospital, going into intensive care, and exact ratios we don’t yet know, but there will be substantial numbers,’’ he said. “That will begin to become apparent, in my view, fairly soon after Christmas."
Despite the surge in infections, daily coronavirus-related deaths in the U.K. are well below last winter’s peak. Britain recorded 165 deaths on Wednesday, compared with a record 1,820 on Jan. 20.
Public health officials credit widespread vaccination with weakening the link between COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths.
Meanwhile, Britain is moving forward with a public inquiry into how the government has responded to the pandemic. Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Wednesday announced that Heather Hallett, a former Court of Appeal judge, would chair the inquiry, which is due to begin next spring.
“She brings a wealth of experience to the role and I know shares my determination that the inquiry examines in a forensic and thoroughgoing way the government’s response to the pandemic,” Johnson said.
After pressure from bereaved families, Johnson agreed to hold an inquiry on his government’s handling of the pandemic, which has left more than 146,000 people in Britain dead, the highest toll in Europe after Russia. The probe will have the power to summon evidence and to question witnesses under oath.
The pressure group Bereaved Families for Justice said the announcement of a chairperson was a “positive step” but “comes far too late.”
“We’ve been calling for an inquiry since the end of the first wave, and we will never know how many lives could have been saved had the government had a rapid review phase in summer 2020,” said Matt Fowler, the group’s co-founder. “With the omicron variant upon us, the inquiry really cannot come soon enough.”
Hallett said she would be consulting bereaved families and others on the inquiry’s terms of reference.
“I shall do my utmost to ensure the inquiry answers as many questions as possible about the U.K.’s response to the pandemic so that we can all learn lessons for the future,” she said.
Hallett oversaw inquests into the deaths of 52 people killed in the July 7, 2005 bombings on London’s transit system. Last month, she was appointed to lead an inquiry into the death of Dawn Sturgess, who died in 2018 after being exposed to Novichok, the Soviet-made nerve agent used to poison former Russian spy Sergei Skripal in the English city of Salisbury.
Because of Hallett’s position with the COVID-19 probe, the government plans to find someone else to lead the inquiry to explore allegations of Russian involvement in Sturgess’ death.
US faces a double coronavirus surge as omicron advances
The new omicron coronavirus mutant speeding around the world may bring another wave of chaos, threatening to further stretch hospital workers already struggling with a surge of delta cases and upend holiday plans for the second year in a row.
The White House on Wednesday insisted there was no need for a lockdown because vaccines are widely available and appear to offer protection against the worst consequences of the virus. But even if omicron proves milder on the whole than delta, it may disarm some of the lifesaving tools available and put immune-compromised and elderly people at particular risk as it begins a rapid assault on the United States.
“Our delta surge is ongoing and, in fact, accelerating. And on top of that, we’re going to add an omicron surge,” said Dr. Jacob Lemieux, who monitors variants for a research collaboration led by Harvard Medical School.
“That’s alarming, because our hospitals are already filling up. Staff are fatigued,” leaving limited capacity for a potential crush of COVID-19 cases “from an omicron wave superimposed on a delta surge.”
Most likely, he and other experts said at a news briefing Tuesday, an omicron surge is already under way in the United States, with the latest mutant coronavirus outpacing the nation’s ability to track it.
Based on specimens collected last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said omicron accounted for about 3% of genetically-sequenced coronaviruses nationally. Percentages vary by region, with the highest — 13% — in the New York/New Jersey area.
Read: Global Covid cases top 272 million
But Harvard experts said these are likely underestimates because omicron is moving so fast that surveillance attempts can’t keep up.
Globally, more than 75 countries have reported confirmed cases of omicron. In the United States, 36 states have detected the variant. Meanwhile, delta is surging in many places, with hot spots in New England and the upper Midwest. The five states with the highest two-week rolling average of cases per 100,000 people are New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota and Vermont.
Universities are abruptly closing classrooms during finals week with infections multiplying at a fast rate. Both t he NBA and NHL have had to postpone games, and the NFL had its worst two-day outbreak since the start of the pandemic, with dozens of players infected.
Outside the U.S., the president of the European Union said omicron will become the dominant variant in a month and declared that “once again, this Christmas will be overshadowed by the pandemic.”
Scientists around the world are racing to understand omicron, which has a large number of worrisome mutations in important regions of its genetic structure that could affect how it spreads from person to person. How quickly the number of cases doubles, known as “doubling time,” can give a preview of what the disease burden could be in a few weeks.
CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said Wednesday that early data suggests omicron is more transmissible than delta, with a doubling time of about two days.
In Britain, where omicron cases are doubling every two to three days, the variant is expected to soon replace delta as the dominant strain in the country.
The U.K. on Wednesday recorded the highest number of confirmed new COVID-19 infections since the pandemic began, and England’s chief medical officer warned that the situation is likely to get worse as omicron drives a new wave of illness during the holidays.
“The data out of the UK are quite alarming at this point,” and foreshadow what’s to come in the United States, said Bronwyn MacInnis, director of pathogen genomic surveillance at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard. For example, she said, by Tuesday afternoon, omicron was already the most common variant in London.
Read:Biden visiting storm-ravaged Kentucky to offer aid, support
In many ways, omicron remains a mystery. Hints are emerging from South Africa, where it was first reported, indicating it may cause less severe disease than delta but be better at evading vaccines.
But, MacInnis warned: “There’s much more that we don’t know about this variant than we do, including the severity.”
At the same time, Lemieux said, there seem to be fewer tools to fight it. Some monoclonal antibody treatments don’t work as well against omicron in lab tests, Lemieux said. Vaccines appear to offer less protection, although CDC officials said booster shots strengthen that protection.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said Wednesday there is no need, for now, for an omicron-specific booster shot. The two-dose mRNA vaccines, the Pfizer and Moderna shots, still appear to offer considerable protection against hospitalization from omicron, Fauci said.
“If we didn’t have these tools, I would be telling you to really, really be worried,” Fauci said.
Jeff Zients, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, said the U.S. has the tools to fight the virus, including omicron, and “there is no need to lock down.” With vaccines available now for 95% of Americans, “we know how to keep our kids in schools and our businesses open. And we’re not going to shut down.”
Health officials called on Americans to get vaccinated, get their booster shots, wear masks indoors and get tested before traveling and before holiday gatherings.
“Hospital capacity is already at a breaking point in many states because of severe cases of COVID-19,” Michael Fraser, CEO of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, said in a statement.
Given the high level of transmission, MacInnis said there will undoubtedly be severe cases.
“No matter how severely it affects healthy, fully vaccinated and boosted populations, it will hit the most vulnerable among us the hardest still,” she said. “So the elderly, the immunocompromised, other vulnerable populations will still be at greatest risk and still bear the brunt of this.”
Pfizer confirms COVID pill’s results, potency versus omicron
Pfizer said Tuesday that its experimental pill to treat COVID-19 appears effective against the omicron variant.
The company also said full results of its 2,250-person study confirmed the pill’s promising early results against the virus: The drug reduced combined hospitalizations and deaths by about 89% among high-risk adults when taken shortly after initial COVID-19 symptoms.
Separate laboratory testing shows the drug retains its potency against the omicron variant, the company announced, as many experts had predicted. Pfizer tested the antiviral drug against a man-made version of a key protein that omicron uses to reproduce itself.
The updates come as COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalization are all rising again and the U.S. topped 800,000 pandemic deaths. The latest surge, driven by the delta variant, is accelerating due to colder weather and more indoor gatherings, even as health officials brace for the impact of the emerging omicron mutant.
The Food and Drug Administration is expected to soon rule on whether to authorize Pfizer’s pill and a competing pill from Merck, which was submitted to regulators several weeks earlier. If granted, the pills would be the first COVID-19 treatments that Americans could pick up at a pharmacy and take at home.
Read: Pfizer says COVID booster offers protection against omicron
President Joe Biden called Pfizer’s drug “another potentially powerful tool in our fight against the virus,” in a statement Tuesday.
The U.S. government has agreed to purchase enough of Pfizer’s drug to treat 10 million people. But company executives have indicated that initial supplies will be limited, with only enough to treat tens of thousands of people before the end of the year. By March Pfizer hopes to ramp up production to provide millions of courses of treatment.
Pfizer’s data could help reassure regulators of its drug’s effectiveness after Merck disclosed smallerthan-expected benefits for its drug in final testing. Late last month, Merck said that its pill reduced hospitalizations and deaths by 30% in high-risk adults.
Both companies initially studied their drugs in unvaccinated adults who face the gravest risks from COVID-19, due to older age or health problems, such as asthma or obesity.
Pfizer is also studying its pill in lower-risk adults — including a subset who are vaccinated — but reported mixed data for that group on Tuesday.
In interim results, Pfizer said its drug failed to meet its main study goal: sustained relief from COVID-19 for four days during or after treatment, as reported by patients. But the drug did achieve a second goal by reducing hospitalizations by about 70% among that group, which included otherwise healthy unvaccinated adults and vaccinated adults with one or more health issues. Less than 1% of patients who got the drug were hospitalized, compared with 2.4% of patients who got a dummy pill.
Read: Pfizer agrees to let other companies make its COVID-19 pill
An independent board of medical experts reviewed the data and recommended Pfizer continue the study to get the full results before proceeding further with regulators.
Across both of Pfizer’s studies, adults taking the company’s drug had a 10-fold decrease in virus levels compared with those on placebo.
The prospect of new pills to fight COVID-19 can’t come soon enough for communities in the Northeast and Midwest, where many hospitals are once again being overloaded by incoming virus cases.
Both the Merck and Pfizer pills are expected to perform well against omicron because they don’t target the coronavirus’ spike protein, which contains most of the new variant’s mutations.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky, appearing on NBC’s “Today” on Tuesday, said the best way for people to protect themselves against COVID-19 is to get vaccinated and get a booster shot. She said the Pfizer pill, if authorized by the FDA, “will be another great tool, but we need to diagnose people early.”
Another member of Bangladesh women’s cricket team tests positive for Covid-19
Another member of the Bangladesh women’s cricket team tested positive for Covid-19, a BCB source confirmed on Tuesday.
Earlier, two women cricketers tested positive for Omicron, the newest variant of Covid-19. But the third one is not an Omicron case.
Read: Omicron also enters Bangladesh; first 2 cases detected
All the three are now in isolation at the Mugda General Hospital.
“Another member of the team that toured Zimbabwe tested positive,” Jalal Yunus, the chief of BCB media department, told UNB on Tuesday without mentioning whether the infected person is a cricketer or a member of support staff.
“With two cricketers who had tested earlier, all three were shifted to Mugda General Hospital, but they have been doing very well.”
He said that the cricketers were shifted to the hospital due to other arrangement of the hotel where they had been staying.
The other members of the women team who were found negative in the latest test are in quarantine in the BCB academy building. They will have to undergo another test on December 19.
The women national team has recently returned home from Zimbabwe after the ICC Women’s World Cup Qualifier was suspended midway due to the surge of the new variant of Covid-19 which was first detected in South Africa.
Read: Bangladesh logs 3 Covid-linked deaths, 295 fresh infections in 24 hrs
After arriving in Dhaka, the cricketers had been maintaining the quarantine period in a Dhaka hotel.
On December 6, two cricketers tested positive for Covid-19. Two days later, the health ministry revealed that they were infected with the Omicron variant of the virus which were the first cases of Omicron in Bangladesh.
Global Covid cases nears 271 million
The overall number of global Covid cases is fast approaching 271 million amid the spread of the Omicron variant in several western countries.
According to Johns Hopkins University (JHU), the total case count mounted to 270,126,616 while the death toll from the virus reached 5,311,561 Tuesday morning.
The US has recorded 50,118,307 cases so far and more than 798,697 people have died from the virus in the country, the university data shows.
Brazil, which has been experiencing a new wave of cases since January, registered 22,191,949 cases as of Tuesday, while its Covid death toll rose to 616,980.
Also read: UK reports its first Omicron death
India has registered 7,350 new cases of Covid-19 during a 24 hours period, bringing the total caseload to 34,703,508, as per the health ministry figures released Monday.
The ministry also reported 202 more deaths during the same period, taking the total death toll to 475,640.
Three new cases of Omicron were reported in India on Monday -- two in Maharashtra (one each in Latur and Pune) and one in Gujarat’s Surat – taking the total tally of the new Covid variant in the country to 41.
Meanwhile, the UK reported the first death of a patient infected with Omicron on Monday. Long lines formed Monday at vaccination centres across England as people heeded the government’s call for all adults to get booster shots to protect themselves against the variant.
The UK, as of Tuesday morning, logged 10,935,244 Covid-19 cases, while the fatalities mounted to 146,935.
Situation in Bangladesh
Bangladesh reported three more Covid-linked deaths with 385 fresh cases in 24 hours till Monday morning amid the fear of Omicron variant escalation.
On Sunday, the country logged 329 cases and six Covid-related deaths.
With the latest figures, the daily case positivity rate rose again to 1.72 percent from Sunday’s 1.52 percent, the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) said.
The total fatalities mounted to 28,031 while the caseload mounted to 15,79, 710 with the fresh cases.
Meanwhile, the mortality rate remained static at 1.77 percent during the period.
Of the 27 deaths recorded from December 6 to December 12, 18.5 percent received Covid jabs while 81.5 percent did not, the directorate said.
Two of the latest deceased were men and one was a woman. The fresh cases, on the other hand, were detected after testing 21,037 samples, according to the directorate.
Besides, the recovery rate remained unchanged at 97.77 percent with the recovery of 267 more patients during the 24-hour period.
Also read: Bangladesh reports steady rise in Covid cases
On December 9, Bangladesh again logged zero Covid-related death after nearly three weeks as the pandemic was apparently showing signs of easing.
The country reported this year’s first zero Covid-related death in a single day on November 20 along with 178 infections since the pandemic broke out in Bangladesh in March 2020.
Bangladesh reported the highest number of daily fatalities of 264 on August 5 this year, while the highest daily caseload was 16,230 on July 28 this year.
However, some of the leading public health experts in Bangladesh have warned that the current trend of plummeting Covid-19 cases in Bangladesh could well be the obvious calm before a cataclysmic storm.
Their fears center around children below 12 who remain out of the vaccine coverage and the elderly people.
These experts fear a slow pace of vaccination, waning vaccine immunity, sheer disregard for Covid-safety protocols, reopening of schools and increased travel may set the stage for another Covid wave in Bangladesh -- a trend many European countries are witnessing now.
UK reports its first Omicron death
Long lines formed at vaccination centers in Britain as people heeded the government’s call for all adults to get booster shots to protect against the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, which the prime minister said Monday has caused at least one death.
In a televised announcement late Sunday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said everyone 18 and up would be offered a third vaccine dose by Dec. 31 — less than three weeks away, and a month earlier than the previous target.
“We are now facing an emergency in our battle with the new variant, Omicron,” Johnson said. He said boosters would “reinforce our wall of vaccine protection” against an anticipated “tidal wave of Omicron.”
U.K. health authorities say Omicron cases are doubling every two to three days in Britain, and it will replace delta as the dominant strain within days. But it’s unclear whether the expected wave of infections will inundate the country’s health system.
About 10 people are in U.K. hospitals with COVID-19 caused by Omicron, and Johnson on Monday reported the country’s first COVID-19 death involving the variant.
Also read: UK faces 'tidal wave' of omicron cases: Boris Johnson
Scientists in South Africa, where Omicron was first identified, say they see signs the variant may cause less severe disease than delta but cautioned it was too soon to be certain. Health authorities around the world are watching Britain closely to see what an Omicron surge looks like in a country with an older, more highly vaccinated population than South Africa’s.
The U.K. Health Security Agency says existing vaccines appear less effective in preventing symptomatic infections in people exposed to Omicron, though effectiveness appears to rise to between 70% and 75% after a third vaccine dose.
More than 80% of people age 12 and up in Britain have received two vaccine doses, and 40% of adults have had three. Giving the rest boosters by the end of the month will be a huge challenge, requiring almost 1 million doses administered a day. Johnson acknowledged that many routine medical procedures would have to be postponed to meet the goal.
Teams of military planners and thousands of volunteer vaccinators will help give the jabs at doctors’ offices, hospitals, pharmacies and pop-up vaccination centers.
While the online appointment booking system will not be open to under-30s until Wednesday, Johnson said any adult could show up at a walk-in center to get a booster starting Monday.
Lines built up at big London vaccination clinics on Monday morning. The line for shots at St. Thomas’ Hospital, on the south bank of the River Thames in London, stretched across Westminster Bridge toward Parliament.
Also read: Now that Omicron is here, what can the early data out of South Africa tell us?
The government’s appointment-booking website struggled to keep up with demand. The National Health Service advised people to try accessing the site later in the day or on Tuesday, if they were having problems.
The government also ran out of rapid at-home virus test kits, which have been distributed free to households during the pandemic. The website where tests can be ordered said none were available on Monday. Starting Wednesday, people in England must show proof of vaccination or a negative test to ender nightclubs and other crowded venues.
Johnson’s Dec. 31 target applies to England. The other parts of the U.K. — Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland — are also expected to speed up their vaccination campaigns.
The British government raised the country’s official coronavirus threat level on Sunday, warning the rapid spread of Omicron “adds additional and rapidly increasing risk to the public and health care services” at a time when COVID-19 is already widespread.
Concerns about the new variant led Johnson’s Conservative government to bring in vaccine certificates for nightclubs and to reintroduce restrictions that were lifted almost six months ago. Masks must once again be worn in most indoor settings and as of Monday, people were urged to work from home, if possible.
Many scientists say those measures are unlikely to be enough and are calling for tougher ones. But cafes, pubs and other businesses located in city centers fear plummeting commuter numbers will hammer business in the usually busy pre-Christmas period.
Johnson is facing a major rebellion from unhappy Conservative lawmakers when Parliament votes on the new restrictions Tuesday. Dozens are expected to oppose the restrictions — especially vaccine passports, which they say are unfair and economically damaging.
The measures are still highly likely to pass, with support from the opposition Labour Party.
Robert Read, professor of infectious diseases at the University of Southampton, said it was still unclear how severe cases of COVID-19 from Omicron would be but “the evidence is that Omicron probably requires much larger amounts of antibody in the blood in order to thwart the virus as much as possible”
“We need to get those third doses into as many adults as we possibly can, just in case this virus turns out to be a raging bull just rather than a pussy cat,” Read told radio station LBC.
Now that Omicron is here, what can the early data out of South Africa tell us?
Two members of the Bangladesh women’s cricket team, which remains in quarantine since returning from Zimbabwe amid the Omicron scare late last month, were confirmed on Saturday as the country’s first identified cases of the latest coronavirus variant of concern.
Since first being identified by South African doctors in the province of Gauteng, which includes Johannesburg in mid-November, Omicron has spread quickly around the globe, and was said to be present in at least 57 countries by the WHO as of Thursday – before Bangladesh confirmed its cases.
Africa recorded more than 107 000 cases in the week ending on 5 December, up from around 55 000, according to WHO – up 93% over the previous week. Countries in southern Africa, where the variant is known to have been in circulation since early November, recorded the highest increase with a 140% hike mainly driven by an uptick in South Africa.
Scientists around the world are poring over the early data out of SA in order to gain a grasp of what to expect in the event of a new wave of infections driven by Omicron. At this stage, the weight of evidence indicates although an Omicron wave may well be inevitable, it is likely to be typified by milder cases, with less severe disease than what was witnessed during the Delta wave.
Data which looked at hospitalisations across South Africa between 14 November and 4 December found that ICU occupancy was only 6.3% – which the WHO says is “very low” compared with the same early period of the wave linked to the Delta variant in July.
Out of more than 1200 admissions, 98 were receiving supplemental oxygen and only four were on ventilation. Most of the people admitted to the health facilities were under the age of 40 – this isn’t unusual, as the early part of a wave is often fuelled by the young, who tend to be more outgoing, as well as less vaccinated.
WHO has warned that as the clinical profile of patients changes, the impact of Omicron may change. This would apply even more in countries with a different demographic profile to South Africa, which has a very young population.
But we found some reassuring similarities between the demographic profiles of South Africa and Bangladesh, and even the proportion of the population in each country vaccinated, which makes a deep dive into the early data out of South Africa much more worthwhile.
Similarities between SA and BD
Statistics South Africa, which is a government agency, estimated the population of South Africa was 58.8 million in 2019. In this regard it is dwarfed by Bangladesh, where the population in 2019 was 164.6 million, as per the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. But there the dissimilarities end.
According to the World Population Review, which uses projections of the latest United Nations data, the median age in the two countries is very similar – 27.1 in South Africa (26.9 for males, 27. 3 for females), and 26.7 in Bangladesh (26 for males, 27.3 for females).
The two countries also have very similar population pyramids (see image), showing the distribution of the population through different age groups. Using World Bank data, we find there are similarities in the age structures of the two nations too.
In South Africa, 28.8% of the population is aged between 0-14 years; 65.6% is aged between 15-64; and 5.5% are 65 and over.
Read: South African doctors see signs omicron is milder than delta
In Bangladesh, 26.8% of the population falls in the 0-14 years category; 68% are between 15-64; and 5.2% are 65 and over.
There are striking similarities in the vaccination numbers too. In South Africa, 41% of the adult population has had at least one dose of the vaccine. In Bangladesh, a greater percentage of the population targeted for vaccination (which includes adults plus some other groups such as students) has had at least a single dose – 52%.
South Africa however has done a better job of fully vaccinating its adult population – 36% are double-jabbed. In Bangladesh, 32% of the targeted population have had their two doses of the vaccine.
South Africa’s Fourth Wave
In order to assess the situation in South Africa, we’ll look at data from the country’s National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD), a division of the country’s National Health Laboratory Service, hospital groups, and statements of senior healthcare professionals.
The first thing to note is that cases in South Africa are undoubtedly surging. The country confirmed 22,391 new cases on Thursday, 19,018 on Friday, and 17,154 on Saturday, up from about 200 per day a few weeks ago – interestingly, about the level Bangladesh finds itself at present.
The positivity rate hit 29.8% on Thursday, a sharp increase from 1.2% reported during the first week of November.
The new surge has infected 90,000 people in the past month, Minister of Health Joe Phaahla said Friday.
“Omicron has driven the resurgence,” Phaahla said, citing studies that say 70% of the new cases nationwide are from omicron.
The R value, signifying the coronavirus reproduction rate - the number of people likely to be infected by one person – for South Africa’s current wave is 2.5, which is very high, and the highest that South Africa has recorded during the pandemic.
South African doctors see signs omicron is milder than delta
As the omicron variant sweeps through South Africa, Dr. Unben Pillay is seeing dozens of sick patients a day. Yet he hasn’t had to send anyone to the hospital.
That’s one of the reasons why he, along with other doctors and medical experts, suspect that the omicron version really is causing milder COVID-19 than delta, even if it seems to be spreading faster.
“They are able to manage the disease at home,” Pillay said of his patients. “Most have recovered within the 10 to 14-day isolation period.” said Pillay.
And that includes older patients and those with health problems that can make them more vulnerable to becoming severely ill from a coronavirus infection, he said.
In the two weeks since omicron first was reported in Southern Africa, other doctors have shared similar stories. All caution that it will take many more weeks to collect enough data to be sure, their observations and the early evidence offer some clues.
According to South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases:
— Only about 30% of those hospitalized with COVID-19 in recent weeks have been seriously ill, less than half the rate as during the first weeks of previous pandemic waves.
— Average hospital stays for COVID-19 have been shorter this time - about 2.8 days compared to eight days.
— Just 3% of patients hospitalized recently with COVID-19 have died, versus about 20% in the country’s earlier outbreaks.
“At the moment, virtually everything points toward it being milder disease,” Willem Hanekom, director of the Africa Health Research Institute, said, citing the national institute’s figures and other reports. “It’s early days, and we need to get the final data. Often hospitalizations and deaths happen later, and we are only two weeks into this wave.”
In the meantime, scientists around the world are watching case counts and hospitalization rates, while testing to see how well current vaccines and treatments hold up. While delta is still the dominant coronavirus strain worldwide, omicron cases are popping up in dozens of countries, with South Africa the epicenter.
Pillay practices in the country’s Gauteng province, where the omicron version has taken hold. With 16 million residents, It’s South Africa’s most populous province and includes the largest city, Johannesburg, and the capital, Pretoria. Gauteng saw a 400% rise in new cases in the first week of December, and testing shows omicron is responsible for more than 90% of them, according to health officials.
Pillay says his COVID-19 patients during the last delta wave “had trouble breathing and lower oxygen levels. Many needed hospitalization within days,” he said. The patients he’s treating now have milder, flu-like symptoms, such as body aches and a cough, he said.
Pillay is a director of an association representing some 5,000 general practitioners across South Africa, and his colleagues have documented similar observations about omicron. Netcare, the largest private healthcare provider, is also reporting less severe cases of COVID-19.
But the number of cases is climbing. South Africa confirmed 22,400 new cases on Thursday and 19,000 on Friday, up from about 200 per day a few weeks ago. The new surge has infected 90,000 people in the past month, Minister of Health Joe Phaahla said Friday.
Also read: Omicron v. delta: Battle of coronavirus mutants is critical
“Omicron has driven the resurgence,” Phaahla said, citing studies that say 70% of the new cases nationwide are from omicron.
The coronavirus reproduction rate in the current wave - indicating the number of people likely to be infected by one person — is 2.5, the highest that South Africa has recorded during the pandemic, he said.
“Because this is such a transmissible variant, we’re seeing increases like we never saw before,” said Waasila Jassat, who tracks hospital data for the National Institute for Communicable Diseases.
Of the patients hospitalized in the current wave, 86% weren’t vaccinated against the coronavirus, Jassat said. The COVID-patients in South Africa’s hospitals now also are younger than at other periods of the pandemic: about two-thirds are under 40.
Also read: Omicron not ‘less dangerous’; it’s matter of time for Bangladesh to get a case: Experts
Jassat said that even though the early signs are that omicron cases are less severe, the volume of new COVID-19 cases may still overwhelm South Africa’s hospitals and result in a higher number of severe symptoms and deaths.
“That is the danger always with the waves,” she said.
Bangladesh logs 5 more Covid fatalities amid Omicron emergence
Bangladesh reported five more Covid-related deaths along with 177 fresh cases in 24 hours till Saturday morning amid the entry of its new variant, Omicron.
With the latest cases, the daily-case positivity rate declined to 1.13 per cent from Friday’s 1.34 per cent, said the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS).
The total fatalities mounted to 28,022 while the caseload mounted to 15,78, 996, with the number of fresh cases.
Read: Omicron also enters Bangladesh; first 2 cases detected
Meanwhile, the mortality rate remained static at 1.77 per cent during the period.
All the five latest deceased were women and four of them were from Dhaka division while another from Chattogram division.
The fresh cases were detected after testing 15,632 samples.
Besides, the recovery rate decreased to 97.77 per cent with the recovery of 122 more patients during the 24-hour period.
On Thursday, Bangladesh again logged zero Covid-related death after nearly three weeks as the pandemic is apparently showing signs of easing.
The country reported this year’s first zero Covid-related death in a single day on November 20 along with 178 infections since the pandemic broke out in Bangladesh in March 2020.
Bangladesh reported the highest number of daily fatalities of 264 on August 5 this year, while the highest daily caseload was 16,230 on July 28 this year.
However, some of the leading public health experts in Bangladesh have warned that the current trend of plummeting Covid-19 cases in Bangladesh could well be the obvious calm before a cataclysmic storm.
Read: Omicron not ‘less dangerous’; it’s matter of time for Bangladesh to get a case: Experts
Their fears centre around children below 12 who remain out of the vaccine coverage and the elderly people.
These experts fear a slow pace of vaccination, waning vaccine immunity, sheer disregard for Covid-safety protocols, reopening of schools and increased travel may set the stage for another Covid wave in Bangladesh -- a trend many European countries are witnessing now.
Omicron enters Bangladesh
Bangladesh on Saturday reported the first two cases of Omicron variant of coronavirus.
“These two infected female patients (cricketers) returned from Zimbabwe recently,” ASM Alamgir, chief scientific officer of the Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), told UNB.
He said the Omicron patients are members of the Bangladesh Women's Cricket Team and they do not have any severe symptoms.
However, the two female members of the cricket team have been kept in a hotel for isolation, he added.
The two cricketers tested positive for Covid-19 on December 6.
Read: Companies rethink return-to-office plans amid omicron cases
The women's team recently returned home from Zimbabwe after confirming their participation in the next 50-over World Cup, which will be Bangladesh’s maiden World Cup appearance as well.
No new lockdown
On December 5, Health Minister Zahid Maleque ruled out any further Covid-induced lockdown in the country.
“The Covid-19 situation in Bangladesh is under control now and there’s no possibility to enforce any lockdown in the country,” he said.