United News of Bangladesh

The visiting delegation of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry (DCCI) participated in the 6th Guangzhou Sourcing Fair on Wednesday, seeking to expand trade and investment linkages between Bangladesh and China. The delegation, led by DCCI Senior Vice President Razeev H Chowdhury, held B2B matchmaking sessions with around 150 Chinese supplier companies representing sectors, including hardware and tools, automobiles, motorcycles and spare parts, home appliances, and building and construction materials. Speaking at a bilateral discussion on supply chain issues held on the sidelines of the fair, Razeev highlighted the depth of the bilateral relationship, noting that Bangladesh and China share a long-standing multidimensional partnership spanning trade, investment, infrastructure, education, and human resource development. He said total bilateral trade between the two countries reached USD 18.89 billion in FY2025, with Bangladesh's imports from China amounting to USD 18.20 billion against exports of USD 694.49 million, pointing to a significant trade imbalance that both sides acknowledged needs to be addressed. Razeev also extended an invitation to Chinese entrepreneurs to invest in Bangladesh, citing textiles and textile products, machinery, chemicals, metals, plastics, minerals, and agro-based products as priority sectors. Nicole Fan, Director of Poly Jinhan Exhibition (Poly Events), which organises the fair, said the platform will serve as an important bridge between entrepreneurs of the two countries. She expressed optimism that greater Bangladeshi participation in future editions of the fair will open new avenues of collaboration with China's vast supplier network. The Guangzhou Sourcing Fair, now in its sixth edition, has emerged as a key platform for connecting South and Southeast Asian buyers with Chinese manufacturers and exporters across a wide range of industrial and consumer goods sectors. The 22-member DCCI delegation went to on Wednesday on a five-day visit aimed at strengthening Bangladesh-China economic engagement and expand bilateral trade and investment cooperation.

China’s economy picked up pace in the first quarter of the year, growing 5% compared to the same period last year, as it largely withstood the early effects of the Iran war, according to official data released . The January–March figures, which cover the period when the conflict began, came in stronger than economists had predicted and improved from the 4.5% growth recorded in the previous October–December quarter. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded by 1.3% in the first three months, marking its fastest growth rate in a year. Experts say China, the world’s second-largest economy, is likely to manage the short-term impact of the war, now in its seventh week. However, rising energy prices driven by the conflict are adding to inflation pressures and weighing on global growth. Over time, weaker global demand could affect Chinese exports. The International Monetary Fund recently lowered its 2026 growth forecast for China to 4.4%, reflecting broader global economic concerns linked to the conflict. Chinese authorities had earlier set a growth target of 4.5% to 5% for this year, the lowest since 1991. “China can likely weather short term disruptions, but a prolonged war and sustained high energy prices could begin to slow growth in the second half of the year,” said Lynn Song. Separate data released showed China’s industrial output rose 5.7% in March from a year earlier, beating expectations as global demand for electronics, vehicles, semiconductors and robotics remained strong. However, retail sales increased by just 1.7%, falling short of forecasts and slowing from 2.8% growth in the first two months of the year, highlighting weak domestic consumer demand. China’s prolonged real estate downturn has continued to hurt consumer and investor confidence. Still, the country achieved around 5% growth last year, supported by strong exports that pushed its trade surplus to nearly $1.2 trillion, despite higher tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. Economists say exports will remain a key driver of China’s economy this year, but heavy reliance on them could pose risks. “The lack of a quick resolution to the Iran war is likely to slow global growth, reducing other countries’ capacity to import Chinese goods,” said Eswar Prasad. He added that as countries focus on protecting their own economies from the impact of the conflict, demand for Chinese imports is likely to weaken. China reported earlier this week that exports grew 2.5% in March compared to a year earlier, a noticeable slowdown from the previous two months, partly due to seasonal factors. While economists believe China could still meet its annual growth target through policy support, concerns remain. Increased public investment may help sustain overall growth, but without stronger consumer demand, it could deepen deflation risks and further increase dependence on exports.

In an interview Sunday with Maria Bartiromo of Fox News, US President Donald Trump had said fuel prices could be the same or “maybe a little bit higher” by the November congressional elections. But in a separate interview with Bartiromo, which was taped on Tuesday at the White House and broadcast on Wednesday, Trump claimed he’d been misquoted and tried to overcome the blowback from his previous comments. He said he’s happy with oil costing about $92 per barrel. “It’s going to come dropping down very big as soon as this is over,” he said, referring to the war. “And I think it can be over very soon.” Later in the interview, he predicted that gas prices, now averaging slightly above $4 a gallon, will be “much lower” by the elections. Speaking again about the war, Trump said, “When that’s settled, gas prices are going to go down tremendously.”

Asian stock markets mostly moved higher on Wednesday, following a strong rally on Wall Street as oil prices declined amid hopes that the United States and Iran may resume talks to end their conflict. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.4% in afternoon trading to 58,122.52. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was nearly unchanged, edging up less than 0.1% to 8,978.70. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.1% to 6,092.77. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.4% to 25,980.69, while China’s Shanghai Composite slipped slightly by less than 0.1% to 4,023.40. On Wall Street, stocks closed higher, extending gains from the previous session. The S&P 500 climbed 1.2% and is now just 0.2% below its record high set in January. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 317 points, or 0.7%, while the Nasdaq composite surged 2%. In the oil market, U.S. benchmark crude fell 58 cents to $90.70 per barrel. Brent crude edged up 7 cents to $94.86 after dropping sharply by 4.6% a day earlier. Although prices remain above pre-war levels of around $70, they are well below the peak of $119 reached earlier. Lower oil prices help reduce costs for businesses, but analysts cautioned that the ongoing conflict still poses risks. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said the drop in oil prices reflects growing expectations that Washington and Tehran could restart negotiations after earlier talks failed. He noted that traders appear to be focusing on the possibility of easing tensions rather than current supply concerns. Asian economies remain heavily reliant on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for crude exports from the Persian Gulf. Any disruption there can tighten global supply and push prices higher. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund said global inflation is expected to rise to 4.4% this year from 4.1% in 2025, revising its earlier forecast of a slowdown to 3.8%. The IMF also lowered its global growth outlook to 3.1% from the 3.3% projected in January. Overall, the S&P 500 gained 81.14 points to 6,967.38, the Dow rose 317.74 to 48,535.99, and the Nasdaq added 455.35 to 23,639.08. In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields declined as easing oil prices reduced inflation concerns. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.25% from 4.30%. In currency trading, the U.S. dollar strengthened slightly to 158.95 Japanese yen from 158.79 yen, while the euro slipped to $1.1790 from $1.1797.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lowered its global growth forecast, warning that the ongoing Iran war has disrupted economic momentum and is likely to push inflation higher worldwide. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected global growth at 3.1% for 2026, down from the 3.3% forecast in January. The figure also reflects a slowdown from the estimated 3.4% growth in 2025. The downgrade comes as US and Israeli strikes on Iran, along with Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and retaliatory attacks on regional energy infrastructure, have driven up global oil and gas prices. As a result, the IMF raised its global inflation forecast to 4.4% this year, compared to 4.1% in 2025 and its earlier estimate of 3.8% for 2026. Before the conflict, the global economy had shown resilience despite protectionist trade policies introduced by Donald Trump, including tariffs on imports. A strong technology sector, driven by investments in data centres and artificial intelligence, had also supported growth. “War in the Middle East has halted this momentum,” IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas wrote in an accompanying blog post. The IMF’s baseline outlook assumes the conflict will be short-lived and that energy prices will rise by around 19% this year. However, in a more severe scenario where disruptions persist and central banks raise interest rates to curb inflation, global growth could fall to 2% in both 2026 and 2027. “Despite the recent news of a temporary ceasefire, some damage is already done, and the downside risks remain elevated,” Gourinchas added. The fund slightly reduced its US growth forecast to 2.3% for this year. Growth in the eurozone is expected to slow to 1.1%, down from 1.4% in 2025, as higher natural gas prices weigh on the region. Lower-income, energy-importing countries are expected to be hit hardest, with Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth forecast cut to 4.3% from 4.6% projected earlier. Meanwhile, Russia could benefit from higher energy prices, with the IMF slightly raising its growth outlook to 1.1% despite ongoing sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine. Andriy Pyshnyy said rising fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict are also affecting Ukraine, pushing inflation to 7.9% in March, above earlier projections. He warned that fuel prices could further increase inflation by up to 2.8 percentage points. “We are trying to walk on a razor blade,” he said, highlighting the challenges facing Ukraine’s economy amid ongoing war with Russia. The IMF, a 191-nation lending organisation, works to promote global economic stability and reduce poverty.

Economic growth in developing Asia and the Pacific is expected to remain resilient at 5.1 percent in 2026 and 2027, but a prolonged conflict in the Middle East stands as the most significant threat to this outlook, according to senior experts at the Asian Development Bank (ADB). In a detailed analysis of the regions macroeconomic landscape, ADBs Economic Research and Development Impact Department (ERDI) Director Matteo Lanzafame, along with economists Gabriele Ciminelli and John Beirne, warned that while the region is holding up, it remains highly vulnerable to external shocks. ADB approves $115.8m loan to upgrade urban services  in Narayanganj city The experts noted that the current growth forecast of 5.1 percent hinges on an early stabilisation of the Middle East conflict. However, they characterised the projection as subject to extreme uncertainty. The conflict is currently driving up energy costs and disrupting vital shipping routes. This is compounded by trade policy uncertainty and the fading frontloading effect seen last year where exporters rushed shipments ahead of anticipated US tariff hikes. These shocks are hitting a region that is highly dependent on imported oil and deeply integrated into global trade networks, the experts stated. Despite these headwinds, they highlighted that robust domestic demand and services activity continue to cushion the impact. Inflation is showing signs of a resurgence in early 2026, following a brief easing last year. The ADB economists observed that higher energy and food prices are beginning to feed through to consumer costs across the region. Financial markets are already signaling heightened risk, with rising bond yields pushing up borrowing costs and currencies in energy-dependent economies coming under pressure. Investors are also shifting toward safer assets, evidenced by a surge in regional demand for gold. They raised alarms over food prices, which began picking up late in 2025. The Middle East conflict has not only increased transport costs but also threatens to disrupt the supply of fertilizers. This is a particular concern as it would have disproportionately negative effects on the regions lower-income households, who spend a larger share of their income on food, the economists warned. To mitigate these mounting pressures, the ADB experts urged governments to adopt disciplined and targeted policies. They suggested that support should be time-bound and focused on the most vulnerable, rather than broad-based subsidies that strain budgets. Governments should also implement demand-side measures such as temperature mandates for air-conditioning and encouraging work-from-home schedules. Protecting investment in renewable energy and infrastructure was cited as critical to reducing long-term exposure to global shocks. Despite the global backdrop, the experts identified South Asia, particularly India, as the regions growth leader, driven by strong internal consumption. Additionally, economies specialised in electronics and Artificial Intelligence (AI) products continue to see export success, defying the broader global trade slowdown, the added.

Oil prices rose in early market trading Sunday after the U.S. said it would blockade Iranian ports beginning Monday. The price of U.S. crude oil rose 8% to $104.24 a barrel and Brent crude oil, the international standard, rose 7% to $102.29. Brent crude has swung dramatically during the Iran war, rising from roughly $70 per barrel before the war in late February to more than $119 at times. On Friday, ahead of the peace talks, Brent for June delivery fell 0.8% to $95.20 per barrel. Iran has been effectively controlling the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for global oil shipping. U.S. Central Command said the blockade would be “enforced impartially against vessels of all nations” entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. It said it would still allow ships traveling between non-Iranian ports to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Around a fifth of the world’s traded oil typically flows through the Strait of Hormuz every day. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iran are all major exporters. Traffic in the strait has been limited even in the days since the ceasefire. Marine trackers say over 40 commercial ships have crossed since the start of the ceasefire. Claudio Galimberti, chief economist of Rystad Energy, said the blockade will raise prices but might move the needle on talks.

Bangladesh has attracted fresh investment interest from Indonesia-based firm Japfa Ltd, particularly in the agriculture and poultry sectors, during a meeting with Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir on Wednesday. At the meeting held at the ministry, both sides discussed ways to strengthen bilateral trade relations, enhance investment, and promote mutual cooperation for economic development. “Bangladesh is rapidly advancing as an emerging economy. Thanks to various government policy supports and reform initiatives, the investment climate in the country has reached a highly satisfactory level,” the minister said. Bangladesh envoy in Mexico pays tribute to late Indonesian ex-VP Sutrisno Highlighting the open and supportive environment for foreign investors, he urged greater investment in agriculture and poultry sectors. “Such investments will further strengthen these sectors and contribute significantly to the country’s economic growth.” The minister also noted that the government gives special importance to foreign investment to ensure sustainable economic development and is providing all necessary assistance in this regard. Japfa Executive Chairman Renaldo Santosa expressed the company’s interest in expanding investment in Bangladesh’s agriculture and poultry sectors. He praised the country’s growing market, promising agricultural potential, and investor-friendly environment. The Indonesia-based multinational agribusiness firm has been investing in Bangladesh since 2020, and has already started production activities in the poultry feed sector. Japfa’s investment operations in Bangladesh are managed under the Bay Group. Globally, Japfa currently generates an annual turnover of around USD 4.7 billion, with a target to reach USD 10 billion by 2030.

Asian stock markets mostly rose Tuesday amid cautious trading, as oil prices surged ahead of a U.S. deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face possible attacks on its infrastructure. Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.1% to close at 53,429.56. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 jumped 1.7% to 8,728.80, while South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.8% to 5,494.78. China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.3% to 3,890.16. Trading was closed in Hong Kong for a holiday. On Wall Street, stock indexes also moved higher. The S&P 500 added 0.4%, coming off its first weekly gain in six weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 165 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 0.5%. In energy markets, U.S. crude jumped $2.41 to $114.82 a barrel, while Brent crude rose $1.46 to $111.23 a barrel well above pre-war levels of around $70. Oil prices have been volatile amid uncertainty over the war with Iran and its impact on global oil and gas supplies. Iran rejected the latest ceasefire proposal Monday, calling instead for a permanent end to the conflict. Analysts at Mizuho Bank in Singapore said President Trump’s repeated ultimatums are part of a growing cycle of escalation. “Hopes for a complete resolution remain slim as countries seek bilateral solutions,” they said. Meanwhile, Iranian and Omani officials continued working on a plan to manage the strait, through which nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes. In bonds, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held at 4.33%, above its pre-war level of 3.97%. In currency markets, the dollar edged up to 159.86 yen from 159.62, while the euro fell slightly to $1.1541 from $1.1543.

The Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) has urged Bangladesh Bank (BB) to double the Export Development Fund (EDF) to $5 billion to support exporters amidst ongoing global economic challenges. The demand was placed at a meeting with BB Governor Mostaqur Rahman, held at the central bank on Monday. The apex trade body also proposed increasing the "Single Borrower Exposure Limit" from the current 15% to 25% to accommodate the rising costs of doing business. FBCCI calls for policy continuity, tax reforms to boost investment in FY27 budget During the discussion, the FBCCI representatives further advocated for keeping interest rates within single digits and relaxing loan default regulations. In written proposals submitted to the BB chief, the FBCCI highlighted that geopolitical instability and global economic shifts have significantly driven up the prices of industrial raw materials, capital machinery, energy, and transportation. "The ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses a threat to energy supplies, remittance inflows, and overall economic activity," the proposals stated, noting that international demand for Bangladeshi products has also faced downward pressure. Key recommendations from the private sector The FBCCI placed a broad set of coordinated recommendations aimed at stabilising the financial sector and sustaining industrial growth. It emphasised the need for good governance and structural reforms in the banking sector. It called for effective measures to recover laundered money and urged the central bank to protect the interests of depositors and businesses during bank mergers. To keep production and trade afloat, the trade body demanded a steady supply of US dollars, a stable exchange rate, and a simplified process for opening Letters of Credit (LCs). For industries struggling with the current economic climate, the FBCCI suggested extending the loan rescheduling period from the current three months to six months, alongside providing easier loan terms and incentives. It also emphasised expanding support for SMEs and women entrepreneurs through enhanced banking access, dedicated helpdesks, and collateral-free loans. To reduce energy import costs, the trade body recommended low-interest loans for renewable energy projects, including solar power. It proposed the formation of a special committee, headed by a Deputy Governor of Bangladesh Bank, to quickly resolve banking-related issues facing the industrial sector. The business leaders also urged the government to reduce its borrowing from the banking sector to ensure a healthy flow of credit to the private sector and to maintain incentives for remittance to encourage higher inflows of foreign currency.