economic recovery
NPL crisis chokes private credit growth, endangers Bangladesh's economic recovery: Experts
Bangladesh’s banking sector is facing mounting challenges due to a substantial volume of non-performing loans (NPLs), seriously affecting banks’ ability to extend new credit to investors.
According to the latest provisional data from Bangladesh Bank, private sector credit growth declined to 7.57 percent in March 2025, as many businesses struggle to access the loans they require from the banking system.
To gauge the true scale of the problem, the central bank has engaged both international and domestic audit firms to assess the actual asset values and loan defaults at several troubled banks.
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“Once the assessments are complete, the real picture of defaulted and non-performing loans in the banking sector will emerge,” said an executive director of Bangladesh Bank, speaking on condition of anonymity.
He added that defaulted loans had already reached approximately 35 percent in the provisional findings as of March 2025.
This figure, he said, may rise to 40 percent upon the final assessment of the troubled banks’ asset quality.
The official explained that the sector is grappling with difficulties in recovering defaulted loans, with NPLs continuing to climb due to past disbursements made under political influence, often based on inflated asset valuations and forged documentation.
NPLs, or non-performing assets (NPAs), refer to loans where borrowers have stopped making agreed repayments, placing the banks at risk of not recovering the principal or interest.
Globally, including by institutions such as the World Bank and IMF, a loan is typically classified as non-performing after 90 days of non-payment.
In contrast, a defaulted loan refers to a borrower’s failure to meet their legal obligations under the loan agreement, a more severe stage than NPL status.
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Dr Ahsan H Mansur told UNB that Bangladesh Bank has now adopted global standards in defining and declaring NPLs and defaulted loans.
“There is no longer any scope for avoiding a default classification just because one or two instalments have been paid in a year,” he said.
While acknowledging the possibility of a further rise in defaulted loans, he emphasised the importance of completing the asset assessments to facilitate reform of the banking system.
“Following full-scale reforms and stronger regulation, the banking sector will rest on a more stable foundation,” he added.
Bangladesh Bank data shows that the total outstanding loans in the banking sector stand at over Tk 21 lakh crore. Of this, net credit to the government sector amounts to Tk 4.54 lakh crore, or 16.32 percent. Public sector credit accounts for Tk 50,019 crore (5.26 percent), while loans to the private sector total Tk 17.19 lakh crore, representing 7.57 percent growth.
An analysis by the central bank revealed that 10 commercial banks held Tk 2.57 lakh crore in defaulted loans as of December 2024—nearly 75 percent of all NPLs in the banking sector.
Experts warn that this alarming concentration of bad loans signals major vulnerabilities in the financial system.
Of the NPLs, four state-owned banks held Tk 1,26,062 crore, while six private commercial banks accounted for Tk 1,31,797 crore by the end of December 2024.
Over the past year alone, defaulted loans in the sector rose by Tk 2 lakh crore, reaching Tk 3.45 lakh crore, an unprecedented increase.
Approximately 35 percent of total bank loans disbursed to the private sector—amounting to Tk 17.19 lakh crore—are now classified as non-performing, the highest rate in South Asia.
Experts attribute this sharp rise to the exposure of a massive stock of toxic loans that had previously been obscured through data manipulation during the Awami League’s tenure, which ended on 5 August 2024 following a mass uprising.
Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, told UNB that the staggering amount of defaulted loans stems from years of data manipulation, entrenched corruption, and unchecked irregularities.
He warned that the surging NPLs present a severe threat to the country’s macroeconomic stability, likely driving up borrowing costs and further constraining banks’ lending capacity.
Dr M Masrur Reaz, public policy analyst and Chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, said the country’s Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is not growing at the desired pace, in part due to banks’ funds being trapped with large corporations.
He stressed the need for strengthening banks’ capacity to lend to the private sector to stimulate economic activity and employment.
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“If this process is delayed, the path to economic recovery will become increasingly uncertain,” he cautioned.
10 days ago
Economic recovery rides on favourable exports, remittances, stable exchange rate: Planning Ministry
The General Economics Division (GED) of the planning ministry has projected a gradual economic recovery for Bangladesh, buoyed by favourable trends in exports, remittances, a stable exchange rate, and easing inflationary pressures.
In its April 2025 Economic Update and Outlook, the GED noted that improved investor confidence—particularly following the successful Bangladesh Investment Summit 2025—along with a moderately tight but accommodative monetary policy, is expected to further support industrial growth.
The report highlighted the need to reduce commercial lending interest rates to stimulate investment. The GED emphasised the importance of tackling non-performing loans and boosting banking sector efficiency to improve access to credit.
It also stressed the government’s ongoing efforts toward fiscal consolidation, which are expected to strengthen fiscal accounts. “Enhancing efficiency in the selection of development projects—prioritising sustainability—will increase the prospects for quality growth,” the report added.
While inflation is expected to remain stable between 8.0% and 9.0% during April and May 2025, it remains a concern. Food inflation, which surged to 10.65% in FY2023-24, eased to 8.93% in March 2025 after the availability of winter vegetables improved supply.
Key contributors to overall inflation in March included rice (14.62%), fish (11.58%), and vegetables (6.08%). Notably, the prices of brinjal (17.12%), medium rice (16.73%), and hilsa (11.37%) drove up food costs—partly due to seasonal demand during Ramadan and the Bengali New Year.
However, rural areas continue to face higher inflation, highlighting the need for more efficient food supply chain management.
According to the report Bangladesh’s external sector showed signs of strength in March 2025, with remittances reaching a record $3.29 billion—up 65% year-on-year—boosted by Eid-related transfers and a shift to formal remittance channels following regulatory tightening.
From July 2024 to March 2025, total remittances climbed to $21.77 billion, compared to $16.69 billion during the same period the previous year. Foreign exchange reserves rose accordingly, now standing at approximately $25.62 billion.
Exports also saw an 11.44% year-on-year increase, reaching $4.25 billion, largely driven by the readymade garment sector. Bangladesh’s diplomatic engagement with the U.S. over reciprocal tariffs has resulted in a temporary reprieve, with the country agreeing to increase imports of American agricultural products.
The report noted that despite external gains, investment activity remains subdued. In February 2025, deposit growth slowed to 7.88%, while private sector credit growth was just 7.15%—among the lowest in recent years.
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Contributing factors included high lending rates, political and economic uncertainty, and weakened bank health, with around 10 banks seeing diminished lending capacity due to irregularities. Increased government borrowing from commercial banks—up 60% year-on-year—has further strained private sector credit availability.
In March, the Taka traded within a narrow band of Tk 121.5755–121.9542 per U.S. dollar, reflecting relative exchange rate stability despite growing demand for LCs and foreign currency.
Remittances helped stabilize the currency, with the improved foreign reserve position enhancing the outlook for the external sector.
After a weak first quarter, with GDP growing just 1.96% due to industrial slowdown and floods affecting agriculture, the second quarter of FY2025 saw a rebound to 4.48%.
Growth was driven largely by the industrial sector, which grew 7.1% in Q2, led by manufacturing (8.49%), mining and quarrying (8.01%), and wholesale and retail trade (6.63%), said the report.
While the economic recovery is underway, the GED underscores the need for accelerated reforms, investment stimulation, and structural improvements to sustain the momentum.
21 days ago
ADB approves $400mn loan to Bangladesh to enhance revenues, reforms, help small businesses
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Tuesday (June 14, 2023) approved a $400 million loan to Bangladesh to advance reforms in domestic resource mobilization, improve efficiency and productivity of public spending, and help small businesses – especially women-led businesses – to access low-cost innovative bank financing.
This loan is ADB’s second subprogram of the Sustainable Economic Recovery Program that was launched in October 2021 to support economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic.
“This subprogram enables Bangladesh to enhance revenues, promote efficiency and transparency in public spending and public procurement, deepen the reforms of state-owned enterprises, and help small businesses and microentrepreneurs to access low-interest affordable credits from the banking sector,” said ADB Principal Public Management Economist for South Asia, Aminur Rahman.
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“The subprogram, with a strong focus on gender, climate change, and digitization, enables the government to strengthen its efforts to support income generation for the poor and vulnerable,” he added.
The program will enhance income tax collection through the adoption of the new Income Tax Act, reduce tax loopholes, strengthen compliance and enforcement measures, and broaden the country’s tax net.
Transparency and efficiency in public procurement will be enhanced through strengthening electronic procurement and electronic payment systems, while approval of public projects will be facilitated through the newly launched digital system of public project appraisal and approval process, according to ADB.
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The new package supports the launch of innovative financing services by Bangladesh Bank through commercial banks to provide low-cost microcredit using digital channels and e-wallet.
It facilitates bank lending to marginalized and landless farmers, small traders, and low-income earners. Micro and small businesses and women entrepreneurs who do not possess land or property will also be able to access finance based on their trade receipts and other forms of nonfixed collaterals, such as small equipment and machinery.
Promoting gender equality and social inclusion and addressing the climate change agenda in public investment and national budgeting are some of the key activities of this new program.
Promoting gender equality and social inclusion and addressing the climate change agenda in public investment and national budgeting are some of the key activities of this new program.
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1 year ago
Mustafa Kamal dismisses reports about Bangladesh request for IMF loan
Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal has dismissed a media report that Bangladesh is seeking a loan of $4.5 billion in aid for economic recovery.
“Neither we placed any proposal to IMF for loan, nor IMF made any offer to us,” he told reporters while briefing on the outcomes of the two consecutive meetings of the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) and the Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase (CCGP) virtually held on Wednesday.
He made remarks while a delegation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been visiting the country and holding meetings with Bangladesh Bank officials.
“Actually, a consultative committee of the IMF is now visiting the country which has no issue to discuss any loans proposal”, he added, saying, “We don’t need any loan from the IMF right at this moment. We made no request for any funding, not any proposal came from IMF”.
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He, however, said if any loan is taken from the IMF, Bangladesh will never accept any condition that will go against the interest of the country.
Responding to a question, Kamal said he has no idea about any such list of the countries, prepared by the IMF where Bangladesh was shown as economically vulnerable.
“Bangladesh never failed to service its foreign debts, including that of IMF. No multilateral lending agency ever had to write off Bangladesh's debts”, he said.
he said.
He also dismissed the media report that IMF has a different calculation about Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves. Bangladesh calculates its foreign exchange reserves at at $42 billion while IMF sees it much lower.
“We have been calculating our foreign exchange reserves like other countries do ”, he said.
The finance minister also disagreed with rate of inflation at 7.5 per cent, released by the Bangladesh Bureaue of Statistics (BBS).
“I don’t admit such figure. Inflation is never calculated on weekly or daily basis... no country calculates in such a way”, he said.
2 years ago
Bangladesh Bank's role in steering economic recovery appreciated
Economists and business insiders said the stimulus loans for the big and small businesses have worked like oxygen to face a crisis during the pandemic period.
Former BB governor Dr. Salehuddin Ahmed told UNB that the central bank has done a tremendous job, emphasizing implementation of stimulus loans.
Despite some criticism of delayed disbursement, the BB’s contribution to economic recovery is appreciable, he said.
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Md. Jashim Uddin, president of the Federation of Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce & Industry (FBCCI) and Faruque Hassan, president of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) echoed similar sentiments.
They also acknowledged that the support of BB has worked to increase the confidence of businesses which helped them rebound in the production of the industries.
Latest update of stimulus loan disbursement shows that around Tk1.218 lakh crore (Tk1, 00,218 crore) has been disbursed so far in first and second phases from 10 incentive packages managed by Bangladesh Bank.
Of this, Tk 42,173 crore was disbursed to the industry and services sector, Tk 20,793 crore in cottage, small and medium enterprises, Tk 513 crore in refinancing loans in the pre-shipment sector, and Tk 2,492 crore disbursed among low-income professional farmers and small traders.
Besides, Tk 21,250 crore from the export development fund, Tk 1,933 crore from SME sector loan guarantee scheme, Tk 5,000 crore for workers in export-oriented industries, Tk 1,390 crore for consumer interest subsidy and Tk 4466 crore for agriculture sector refinancing scheme. has been distributed.
However, a fund of Tk 1,000 crore was set up for the salaries and allowances of the employees of hotels, motels and theme parks in the tourism sector but no loan was disbursed.
The BB started implementation of the second phase of 10 stimulus loan packages from July of current fiscal year 2021-22 through banks and FIs. The BB released an update of stimulus loan activities till January 11, recently. It said banks and financial institutions (FI) have disbursed Tk 15,000 crore among 67,000 entities in big and small categories across the country till January 11, 2022.
According to the BB, in the first phase, Tk 32,703 crore was disbursed from the announced incentive fund of Tk 40,000 crore for the industry and services sector. Some 3,306 units have received this loan. In the second phase Tk 9,470 crore has been distributed from this fund to 972 businesses.
Although the interest rate of this fund is 9 percent, the customers have to pay 4.5 percent while the government bears the rest.
Besides, Tk 5,407 crore has been disbursed in the second phase under the announced stimulus package for cottage, small and medium enterprises. Around 35,760 enterprises have received loans from this fund of Tk 20,000 crore. In the first phase, a loan of Tk 15,386 crore was given from this fund to 97,814 enterprises.
The interest rate on this loan is 9 percent, but here again the government is giving a 5 percent subsidy on the interest rate.
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In the agriculture sector Tk 379 crore has been disbursed to 30238 farmers/ clients from the agriculture refinance funds in the second phase. In the first phase Tk 4295 crore was distributed to 1.85 lakh farmers and agro based industries.
The farmers and agro industries have received the loans at 4 percent interest rate and Bangladesh Bank has provided the refinance funds to the lender banks at 1.0 percent interest rate.
Bangladesh Bank officials said that there was not as much interest to receive stimulus loans in the second phase. Demand for stimulus loans was higher among the businesses in the first phase.
In fact, the time has now come for those who have taken loans to repay their loans, they told UNB. And this too is a sign of the recovery underway.
3 years ago
S Korea to provide $ 100mn loan to help Bangladesh’s economic recovery
The government of South Korea has approved US$ 100 million in concessional loan from Economic Development Cooperation Fund (EDCF) to help the recovery of Bangladesh’s economy hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The new concessional loan of US$ 100 million will be used to implement several projects aimed at advancing public finance management system and improving small and medium-sized businesses struggling from the repercussion of the pandemic.
The amount would be released as soon as the loan agreement is signed between the Korea EXIM Bank and the Bangladesh Government which is expected to be done within the year.
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EDCF is a Korea’s development financing program for assisting the socio-economic development of developing countries.
The Republic of Korea has already provided US$ 50 million of EDCF loan as budgetary support in December 2020 to to help Bangladesh’s efforts for fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic. It is the second provision of this type of concessional loan.
It will be the first EDCF loan to be implemented under the new EDCF Framework Agreement for the years 2021 through 2025 which was signed between the two Governments on 24 October 2021, said the South Korean Embassy in Dhaka on Monday.
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According to the agreement, the Korean government will provide up to US$ 700 million of concessional loans to the government of Bangladesh for the five year period.
Bangladesh is the second largest recipient of the EDCF loans worldwide in aggregate amount.
So far, the Republic of Korea has funded 24 development projects of Bangladesh with total amount of USD$ 1.2 billion US dollars through the EDCF.
3 years ago
ADB to provide Bangladesh $250 million for Covid recovery
Bangladesh and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Monday signed an agreement for $250 million in policy-based loan to support Bangladesh’s economic recovery following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
The assistance is under the first subprogram of the programmatic $500 million Sustainable Economic Recovery Program, according to a press release.
Economic Relations Division (ERD) Secretary Fatima Yasmin and ADB country director Manmohan Parkash signed the loan agreement on behalf of Bangladesh and ADB, respectively at a hotel.
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The Sustainable Economic Recovery Program will facilitate a rapid and sustainable recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, generate employment, and expand economic activities for micro-entrepreneurs and small businesses.
3 years ago
Economic recovery: ADB approves $250m loan for Bangladesh
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) Friday approved a $250 million policy-based loan to support Bangladesh's economic recovery following the Covid-19 pandemic.
This is the first subprogramme of the programmatic $500 million Sustainable Economic Recovery Programme.
The objective of the Sustainable Economic Recovery Programme is to facilitate rapid and sustainable recovery from the pandemic, generate employment, and expand economic activities for micro-entrepreneurs and small businesses.
This will be pursued through policy reforms that will create fiscal space to enhance public expenditure and support the recovery and growth of cottage, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (CMSMEs).
The loan will support the government's planned public investment in education, health, social protection, and infrastructure and help to stimulate economic activities and economic recovery. It is also aligned with the core objectives of the country's Eighth Five-Year Plan and supports the aspiration of Bangladesh to become an upper-middle-income country by 2031.
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"The fiscal space created under the programme will allow the government to prioritise expenditures and upscale investment in social and economic infrastructure," said ADB Principal Financial Management Specialist Srinivasan Janardanam. "The programme is expected to increase the efficiency in public investment management and create a favourable environment for access to credit, particularly for the poor and vulnerable."
3 years ago
ADB pegs Bangladesh's GDP at 6.8% this fiscal
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised Bangladesh's growth forecast for the current fiscal amid fears of a third wave of the Covid pandemic.
In its latest report, the regional lender has pegged Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 6.8 percent in the current fiscal.
GDP is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a country in a specific time period.
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The growth projection for the current fiscal reflects a strong recovery supported by strengthening manufacturing, continued expansion in the global economy and effective government recovery policies, the ADB said.
On the other hand, inflation is expected to slightly edge up to 5.8 percent and current account deficit to narrow down to 0.6 percent of GDP in financial year (FY) 22.
However, FY22 growth is expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels, as per the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 report released on Wednesday.
The main risk is the re-escalation of Covid infections in Bangladesh or major advanced economies, clipping domestic and external demand, according to the global lender.
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“The government’s policies for saving lives while protecting livelihoods underpinned the recovery process in Bangladesh, making it one of the few countries in the world sustaining commendable economic growth in recent difficult times,” said ADB Country Director Manmohan Parkash.
He said that prudent macroeconomic management, and efficient implementation of stimulus measures and social protection programmes have helped. "Continued efforts for job creation, quick vaccination, and improving domestic resource mobilization will further accelerate the recovery process."
Appreciating recent initiatives in the areas of financial inclusion, and expanding social protection, Parkash said, “Sustained reforms to increase business competitiveness, foreign investment, export diversification, skills development, and technology adoption will stimulate private sector investments and hasten economic recovery."
In FY22, improving consumer confidence and the government’s fiscal and monetary stimulus measures are expected to boost private and public investment.
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The central bank’s expansionary and accommodative monetary policy is expected to support the projected growth while keeping inflation contained. Strong remittances will stimulate private consumption, the ADB said.
Inflation is expected to edge up to 5.8 percent in FY2022 reflecting recovery in economic activity. Continued implementation of the increased fiscal and monetary stimulus measures is expected to create inflationary pressures.
A good crop outlook, consumer caution and underutilized production capacity should mitigate any upward pressure on prices. Domestic administered prices for fuel may cushion the impact of increased crude oil prices, the report said.
3 years ago
Dhaka seeks unity against vaccine inequity to accelerate economic recovery efforts
Foreign Minister Dr AK Abdul Momen has said a successful pandemic recovery must involve universal vaccination ending vaccine inequality.
He referred to the unfortunate manifestation of vaccine nationalism and called the world to stand united against such vaccine inequity.
“It’s time for development partners to be more humane and help the deserving without discrimination. Vaccine should be a public good,” said the Foreign Minister while speaking at the United Nations high-level Forum on the Culture of Peace held at the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday.
This year’s high-level Forum on the Culture of Peace focused on the transformative role of the Culture of peace in promoting inclusion and resilience in the post Covid recovery. The daylong event included an inaugural session, a plenary session and a virtual panel discussion.
“An essential component of our recovery effort from the pandemic must involve a peaceful environment in which all of us irrespective of our caste, creed, colour, race and religion can meaningfully contribute to our re-building efforts. There is no alternative to inculcate the Culture of Peace in our efforts to build back better in the post-Covid recovery,” Dr Momen said.
The Foreign Minister recalled Bangladesh’s pioneering role in the adoption of the UN General Assembly Resolution on the Culture of Peace since 1999 and organization of the high-level forum since 2012.
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Apart from the Foreign Minister, the President of the General Assembly, High Representative of UN Alliance of Civilization, Chef de Cabinet of UN Secretary General and the Representative of UNESCO delivered remarks at the inaugural session.
3 years ago