The deteriorating security situation in the Middle East, driven by conflict among Iran, Israel, and the United States, has cast a shadow of uncertainty over Bangladesh’s $13.5 billion in remittance earnings from the region, experts and sector stakeholders said.
Following military strikes involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, the escalating tension in the Gulf region is causing widespread instability in labour markets, aviation, and employment, directly impacting millions of Bangladeshi expatriates.
The conflict has already turned tragic for the Bangladeshi migrants. Reports indicate that at least three Bangladeshi nationals have been killed and seven others injured in the crossfire of the regional conflict. Specifically, casualties have been reported in the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
The crisis has also crippled the movement of workers. Since late February, approximately 300 flights from Dhaka and Chattogram to Gulf destinations have been cancelled over 9 days following the onset of the conflict. An estimated 55,000 passengers, mostly migrant workers, are stranded, said Reaz-ul-Islam, senior vice president, BAIRA and proprietor of Reaz Overseas.
This disruption poses a double threat; workers on leave are unable to return to their jobs, while thousands of new recruits face the expiration of their entry visas, risking the loss of their life savings invested in migration, he said.
Bangladesh receives $2.2 billion in remittances in 14 days of March
The Middle East is the heart of Bangladesh’s foreign exchange earnings. Data from the Bangladesh Bank reveals that nearly half of the country's total remittance is sourced from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman.
In 2025, Bangladesh recorded a historic high of $32.8 billion in total remittances.
Over $13.5 billion of this inflow came exclusively from the Middle East, where more than 4.5 million Bangladeshis are currently employed.
Analysts warn that if the war persists, the growth trajectory of the past year will be impossible to maintain.
Comparative Impact: 2025 vs. Potential 2026
| Indicator | FY 2024-25 (Actual) | FY 2025-26 (Projected/Risk) |
| Total Global Remittance | $32.8 Billion | $28.5 - $30.0 Billion (Estimated) |
| Middle East Share | 45.40% | Projected to dip below 40% if war persists |
| New Labor Export | 1.1 Million Workers | 30% reduction expected due to flight bans |
The Strategic Importance of Saudi Arabia and the UAE:
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses a direct threat to the two largest sources of foreign exchange for Bangladesh.
The largest labor market in Saudi Arabia remains the single most important destination for Bangladeshi migrants, hosting over 2.5 million workers. In the Fiscal Year 2024-25, Saudi Arabia contributed approximately $6.5 billion to the national exchequer.
The conflict has led to a slowdown in infrastructure projects and the service sector in the Kingdom. If the war escalates, new recruitment under the "Vision 2030" plan—which many Bangladeshi workers were expected to join—could be delayed or suspended.
Remittance inflow crosses $2 billion in just 18 days of February
The high-value hub, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is the second-largest contributor, often competing closely with Saudi Arabia due to its diverse job market in construction, hospitality, and retail. The UAE contributed over $4.8 billion in the last fiscal year.
As a major global transit and trade hub, the UAE's economy is highly sensitive to regional security. The recent flight cancellations (over 300 in the last nine days) have hit the UAE routes the hardest, preventing thousands of workers from returning to their duties in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah.
Economists’ warnings and policy recommendations:
In a high-level meeting with Governor Md. Mostaqur Rahman, eight of the country’s top economists urged the central bank to prepare for a "major shock."
Dr. Mustafa K. Mujeri, former chief economist of Bangladesh Bank, told UNB that they recommended:
Anti-Hundi Measures: Strengthening the crackdown on illegal money transfer channels to ensure every dollar enters through formal banking routes.
Crisis Committee: Forming a special task force under the central bank to monitor geopolitical developments and make rapid policy adjustments.
Labor Diversification: Urgently searching for new labor markets outside the Middle East and focusing on exporting skilled manpower to less volatile regions.
"A prolonged war will lead to job cuts and reduced wages as businesses in the Gulf face stagnation," noted Asif Munier, an immigration expert.
Similarly, Shariful Islam Hasan, currently oversees the BRAC Migration Programme, highlighted the financial ruin facing workers who have already invested Tk 3-4 lakh each to go abroad but are now stuck due to flight cancellations.
Expatriates' Welfare and Overseas Employment Minister Ariful Haque Chowdhury expressed grave concern over the situation. Speaking in Sylhet, he stated that while a dip in remittance is likely if the conflict lingers, the government’s "highest priority" is the safety of citizens abroad.
"We are providing logistical support and medical assistance to the injured. If the situation worsens further, we are prepared to consider large-scale repatriation," the Minister added.
Bangladesh’s forex reserves surge past $34 billion driven by remittance boom
With the Ready-Made Garment (RMG) sector and remittances being the two lungs of the Bangladeshi economy, a "shock" to the Middle East labor market could pressure the national foreign exchange reserves and destabilize macroeconomic balance.
The Bangladesh Association of International Recruiting Agencies (BAIRA) has warned that new recruitment may come to a standstill if regional security is not restored soon.