Bangladesh are still alive in the Asia Cup, but only just.

Their eight-run win over Afghanistan in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday has left the Tigers in contention for a Super Four spot, though the final say now rests with the outcome of Thursday’s Sri Lanka-Afghanistan clash.

Here’s how the path looks: if Sri Lanka win, Bangladesh are through.

If the game is washed out, Bangladesh also qualify. But if Afghanistan win, the equation gets tangled in the unforgiving world of net run rate, where Litton Das’s side are on shaky ground.

The numbers tell the story.

Bangladesh have four points from three games, but their net run rate sits at –0.270. Sri Lanka, with two wins from two, already boast +1.546. Afghanistan, despite having just two points, carry a far superior +2.150. That means an Afghan victory — regardless of margin — would lift them above Bangladesh.

What could still save the Tigers is a lopsided result. For instance, if Afghanistan score 200 batting first, Sri Lanka would need only 128 to advance with Bangladesh. If Afghanistan make 150, Sri Lanka would need 84.

On the other hand, if Sri Lanka bat first, Afghanistan would have to chase inside 12 overs to knock Bangladesh out. Anything short of that keeps Bangladesh ahead.

Bangladesh edge Afghanistan in nervy finish to stay alive in Asia Cup

It is a frustrating wait for a team that has had to crunch similar calculations in past tournaments.

Captain Litton admitted as much after Tuesday’s game.

“Winning was important, but we know we left runs out there. Now we just have to hope results go our way,” Bangladesh captain Litton said.

Still, there is a silver lining. Bangladesh have put themselves in a position where their fate hinges on only one remaining group game, not a maze of multiple scenarios.

A Sri Lanka victory, which on current form looks more than likely, would wipe away all the complicated arithmetic and send Bangladesh into the Super Four without fuss.

Until then, the Tigers and their supporters must do what they have so often done in tournament cricket: watch, wait, and cheer for someone else.