price hike
Traders propose raising edible oil prices by Tk 10 per litre as VAT exemption period ends
Traders have proposed increasing the prices of edible oil by Tk 10 per litre as the tax exemption deadline on it expired on April 15.
Bangladesh Vegetables Oil Refiners' and Vanaspati Manufacturer's Association (BVORVMFA) sent a letter to the senior secretary of the commerce ministry in this regard on Monday.
The letter was issued by executive officer of BVORVMFA Nurul Islam Mollah.
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The letter stated that as tax exemption on the import of raw materials and production of edible expired on April 15 so it will be supplied at the prices fixed before the exemption of VAT.
As per new rate, a litre bottle of soybean oil will be sold at Tk 173, while 5 litre bottle at Tk 845 and a litre palm oil at Tk 132.
In February the National Board of Revenue reduced the Value Added Tax on refined and crude (non-refined) soybean and palm oil to 10 percent from 15 percent.
However, state minister for commerce Ahasanul Islam Titu at a meet the press at Dhaka Reporters ‘Unity on Tuesday said there is no scope to hike prices of edible oil.
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He said the edible oil price can be adjusted with the international market rate but it will take time.
The state minister also said the price hike would be considered on the import of new shipment of the edible oil.
‘Squeezed middle’ in urban areas bearing brunt of Ramadan price hike
The runaway price hike during this year’s Ramadan is proving particularly difficult for the middle to lower-middle class households in urban areas, for whom a Tk10-15,000 spike in the monthly spend is a big ask.
These are the families that despite living in or near areas where supershops are proliferating, still prefer to buy from the local kaachabazars (kitchen markets). And the principal breadwinner, usually the father, often prefers to visit the bazar and make the purchases himself.
One of them, Kazi Shariful Haque, a job holder at a private local company, told UNB that in any case one has to spend more on food during Ramadan, despite it being the month for restraint, on the food that is consumed during Iftar and Sehri. Consumption of some items like fruits, beef, and mutton, does come down, he conceded.
UNB spoke to Shariful at Kawranbazar, the principal kitchen market in the capital, which he visited just prior to the weekend with a shopping list that contained fruits, vegetables, fish, and chicken, among other things.
He shared that in his experience, most items’ prices jumped by Tk10-30 per kg. Fish prices jumped by Tk100 to 150 per kg, chicken jumped by Tk15 to 20 per kg, while chick-pea, lentil, onion, and garlic ginger are among the items that saw prices jump by Tk10 to 30 per kg, since the start of Ramadan.
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Dates are not available at price set by the government, he said, while apples, malta, and some other fruits are selling at Tk300 to 350 per kg - an increase in the price by Tk 50 per kg. Medium-quality dates are selling at Tk800-1000 per kg, he pointed out.
However, Shariful has found that the prices of rice and edible oil are stable for now, but of course household expenses are not limited to the spending at the bazaar only. In almost every sphere, including medicines (health), water rates, gas rates, electricity, house rent, people are having to spend more and more.
Bills and prices are squeezing the middle class in cities, especially at the lower end like Shariful, who last received a raise at his company two years ago, and in these two years, inflation has been spiking in the country. Even the company he worked for suffered losses in business in these two years, and it made him perceive a period of gloom for the economy.
Still, it makes him yearn for when the times were good for these very same people, as recently as 2-3 years ago.
“In 2021, I could maintain my four-member family in Farmgate, Dhaka along with spending for parents living in the village and even then save a small amount every month. And now I have to maintain family expenditure by drawing on my previous savings,” Shariful voiced his frustration in an annoyed voice.
Shariful’s is the common refrain among most shoppers at the city’s kitchen markets these days.
They make up Bangladesh’s ‘squeezed middle’, a term coined by the former leader of the opposition in the UK parliament, Ed Miliband of Labour, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2009.
As Ramadan is about to begin, prices of essentials high in Khulna kitchen markets
The Oxford English Dictionary, while choosing it as their ‘Word of the Year’ in 2011, defined it as “the section of society regarded as particularly affected by inflation, wage freezes, and cuts in public spending during a time of economic difficulty, consisting principally of those people on low or middle incomes.”
All these conditions are met by the likes of Shariful, and others in his bracket.
Dr Fahmida Khatun, Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) told UNB that inflation and randomly fluctuating exchange rates (affecting the price of imported products) have increased the cost of living in the urban areas, as the urban people are depending on supply chains..
In the rural areas, 60 to 70 percent of items consumed by a family are produced on their own land - which is emphatically not the case in the cities. Most of the middle class is even living on rented property. As a result, the price hikes tend to affect urban life more severely, she said.
Read more: Industries Minister announces special drive to control standard, prices of goods during Ramadan
Dr Fahmida said it was not only the prices of consumer goods - health-related expenditure and utility prices have also increased, confirming the observation by Shariful, and others, that UNB spoke to in Kawranbazar.
“Household incomes, mainly salaries, did not increase in the post-Covid period, after having gone down during Covid itself (2020-2022),” Dr Fahmida said. “As a result, jobholders are really bearing the brunt of the price hikes.”
Average wage growth remained well below the inflation rate in Bangladesh for the 22nd month straight in November 2023, as per the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), corresponding to the timeline she provided.
Ghulam Rahman, president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), said that the prices of all types of products have increased, whether those items are imported or produced in the country.
Although the incomes of jobholders did not increase, their expenses have increased alongside that of others, but this has proven a particular burden for the fixed income groups, he said.
He said If prices were hiked “logically and systematically”- presumably meaning adhering to market fundamentals - then this burden would remain manageable. But when it happens arbitrarily, indicating how it happens in Bangladesh, it becomes very hard for the people, said the CAB president.
He advised authorities to pay more attention to whether this is happening, as there are several instances of price gouging, hoarding, etc in the country, and there are laws against these.
Wherever irregularities are found, the perpetrators should be brought under the law, to bring stability to the market, the CAB president urged.
Read more: Commerce ministry fixes prices for dates
Soaring prices in Khulna markets: A struggle for middle and low-income groups
In the aftermath of the January 7 national election, the kitchen markets in Khulna have witnessed a substantial hike in the prices of daily essentials, severely impacting middle-class and low-income families. This sudden increase in prices is making it increasingly difficult for these groups to manage their household budgets.
Recent market trends show a noticeable rise in the cost of various commodities. In particular, the prices of rice have seen a significant uptick over the past week. Seasonal factors have also led to increased vegetable prices during the winter, and essentials like broiler chicken, flour, pulses, chickpeas, ginger, and garlic are not exempt from this trend.
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Local consumers express a sense of helplessness, feeling like hostages to what appears to be an uncontrollable syndicate. This situation has exacerbated their financial challenges, especially for those struggling to meet daily expenses.
Traders attribute this surge in prices to a poor supply chain. However, residents speculate that certain unscrupulous traders are exploiting the post-election period to unjustifiably raise prices.
A recent survey of Khulna's kitchen markets revealed the following price points: Miniket rice at Tk 68-70 per kg, BR-28 Paijam variety at Tk 65-66 per kg, and local variety rice at Tk 50-52 per kg. Vegetable prices have also surged, with beans costing Tk 80-100 per kg, cauliflowers and cabbages at Tk 50 each, and eggplant, ridge gourd, and bottle gourd ranging from Tk 80 to Tk 100.
The poultry market is not immune to these increases, with broiler chicken now at Tk 220-225 per kg after a Tk 20 increase, and Pakistani chicken at Tk 320-340. Beef prices have also risen, selling at Tk 700 per kg despite authorities setting the price at Tk 650.
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Amirul Islam, a local fish trader, noted that fish prices have escalated by Tk 10-50. Additionally, the cost of chickpeas has jumped from Tk 85-90 to Tk 100-110 per kg, and high-quality pulses are now at Tk 150-160 per kg. Even the price of local onions has risen, now selling at Tk 80-100 per kg, up from the previous Tk 80-90.
This alarming price rise in essential commodities is placing significant strain on the residents of Khulna, with the most substantial impact felt by those in the middle and lower economic brackets.
Tipu Munshi under fire in Parliament for runaway prices of essentials
In the face of severe oppostion criticism in parliament for his alleged failure to control price hike of the essential commodities Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi on Monday offered to resign if the prime minister gives the responsibility of running the ministry to one of the opposition MPs.
Gonoforum MP Mokabbir Khan fired the first shot against Tipu Munshi during the discussion on proposed cut motion on the Ministry of Commerce in the budget for FY2023-24.
Jatiya Party MPs also criticised the commerce minister for the rising prices of daily products. They also raised the question whether the 'business' minister, Tipu Munshi, is involved with the market syndicate or not.
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Rustam Ali Faraji of Jatiya Party said in the discussion on the retrenchment proposal, what does the monitoring cell of the ministry do?
“Such a big ministry. If the minister does not have dynamism then the price will increase. If only one person works and everyone sleeps, then the country will not run. Market syndicates should be broken up. It is certainly possible if desired. But if you think the business belongs to me then it is sad for the country and its people.”
Jatiya Party's Shamim Haider Patwari said that even though the commodity prices have decreased in global markets in the last few months, it is not affecting the country.
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“Inflation in Bangladesh was 6 percent now it seems to be 10 percent. It is growing. Inflation is eating away people's income. Due to inflation, soap, bread are all getting smaller," he said.
He mentioned that making the government budget and household budget are not the same thing.
He said that the budget of the government is decreasing and due to this rice, pulses, oil, chicken size and meat pitches are getting smaller.
“The economy of Bangladesh is trapped in a vicious cycle of inflation. The government should take steps to overcome this," he said.
“There are syndicates. There is no doubt about it. That syndicates are powerful. But are they stronger than the government? I don't think they can be stronger than the government. If there is a syndicate within the government, it must be identified," he said.
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He said that the minister has a vast business.
“He is a successful businessman. I believe that if he is given the freedom to act, then he can definitely control it," said he.
Gonoforum MP Mokabbir Khan said that the most unsuccessful ministry of the current government is the Ministry of Commerce.
“When you go to the market, you hear from people that the Ministry of Commerce is so unsuccessful that people call it a syndicate friendly ministry.”
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Alleging the involvement of a syndicate of traders to increase the price of goods, Mokabbir said that many people said that the commerce minister was involved.
“Why don't you resign after all this?” Mokabbir asked the the commerce minister.
Mokabbir said that when the commerce minister says that the price of a product will decrease, the price of that product increases the next day.
He said that he knows that the minister will not give any answer.
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Jatiya Party Member of Parliament Roshan Ara Mannan said that people get upset when they go to the market.
“The Ministry of Commerce is not monitoring the market properly. The commerce minister is a freedom fighter. Why can't he control the market ?”
Jatiya Party lawmaker Pir Fazlur Rahman said that the minister of state for industries said that people cry when they go to market, and the only reason is the syndicate.
“People also understand this. The Russia-Ukraine war alone should not be blamed for the rise in commodity prices. The syndicate has looted thousands of rupees in the egg market. Chicken eggs do not come from Ukraine.”
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He said that the commerce minister has said that some traders are taking advantage of the product prices.
“Our commerce minister can not arrest the syndicate people who raise prices. He himself is a businessman. He knows which businessmen are doing it. So are these businessmen close to him, which is why he can't catch the syndicate businessmen?”
He demanded that the commerce minister should say publicly why he is not able to do that.
Pir Fazlu said that Tk 1500 crore has been looted in the onion market.
“A few companies are looting Tk 17 crore daily in the sugar market. Thousands of crores of taka has been looted in boiler chicken market in a month and a half. The commerce minister can't do anything.”
Tipu Munshi said that it is possible to take actions against the market syndicate including jail and fine.
“There is talk of syndicate. It's just that big groups do a lot of business together. We need to focus - we jailed, fined. That might be possible. But it will be difficult for us to bear the sudden crisis. That's why we try to stay within the rules through discussion,” he said.
Referring to his involvement in politics long before coming to business, Tipu said, "One thing that comes up time and again is that I am a businessman and businessmen are taking advantage of me. I don't know how many years of experience they have in politics. But I have been in politics for 56 years. I have been in business for 40/42 years now.”
Responding to Mokabbir's demand, the minister said, "Someone here asked me to resign. I will tell the honorable prime minister that if he (Mokabbir) takes responsibility, she can relieve me and give the responsibility to him. I have no problem.”
Tipu said that the price has increased and the prime minister repeatedly says that people are suffering.
He mentioned that the global situation has affected the country, not the internal causes. “we have to take that into consideration."
Talking about the onion price, the minister said, there is no doubt that the price has increased. Onions have been mentioned. We discussed with the Ministry of Agriculture and decided that farmers should get a price that encourages them to grow.
He mentioned that in onion, the country has a shortfall of 6 to 7 lakh tonnes every year.
“Farmers will focus on production if the price is better. By this step our deficit is reduced by half. But it should not be exactly Tk 80 to 90 per kg. That is why we have arranged the import," he said
He said that the government did not want to import onion for ensuring fair price to the local farmers.
“But we imported on the instructions of the prime minister. Imported Indian onions are now Tk 40/45 per kg. Today, the price of our desi onion is Tk 65. I think it should be reduced further. we are trying. Within 10/15 days it will come to within Tk 50 a kg”
The minister said that everything is not fixed by the Ministry of Commerce.
“I am still taking responsibility and we are trying our best to do what we can," he stated.
Regarding sugar price surge, he said he has requested the prime minister to reduce the duty structure to bring down the price within Tk 100 a kg.
Saudis, other oil giants announce surprise production cuts; prices could go up
Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers on Sunday announced surprise cuts totaling up to 1.15 million barrels per day from May until the end of the year, a move that could raise prices worldwide.
Higher oil prices would help fill Russian President Vladimir Putin's coffers as his country wages war on Ukraine and force Americans and others to pay even more at the pump amid worldwide inflation.
It was also likely to further strain ties with the United States, which has called on Saudi Arabia and other allies to increase production as it tries to bring prices down and squeeze Russia's finances.
The production cuts alone could push U.S. gasoline prices up by roughly 26 cents per gallon, in addition to the usual increase that comes when refineries change the gasoline blend during the summer driving season, said Kevin Book, managing director of Clearview Energy Partners LLC. The Energy Department calculates the seasonal increase at an average of 32 cents per gallon, Book said.
So with an average U.S. price now at roughly $3.50 per gallon of regular, according to AAA, that could mean gasoline over $4 per gallon during the summer.
However, Book said there are a number of complex variables in oil and gas prices. The size of each country's production cut depends on the baseline production number it is using, so the cut might not be 1.15 million. It also could take much of the year for the cuts to take effect. Demand could fall if the U.S. enters a recession caused by the banking crisis. But it also could increase during the summer as more people travel.
Even though the production cut is only about 1% of the roughly 100 million barrels of oil the world uses per day, the impact on prices could be big, Book said.
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“It's a big deal because of the way oil prices work,” he said. “You are in a market that is relatively balanced. You take a small amount away, depending on what demand does, you could have a very significant price response.”
Saudi Arabia announced the biggest cut among OPEC members at 500,000 barrels per day. The cuts are in addition to a reduction announced last October that infuriated the Biden administration.
The Saudi Energy Ministry described the move as a “precautionary measure” aimed at stabilizing the oil market. The cuts represent less than 5% of Saudi Arabia's average production of 11.5 million barrels per day in 2022.
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Iraq said it would reduce production by 211,000 barrels per day, the United Arab Emirates by 144,000, Kuwait by 128,000, Kazakhstan by 78,000, Algeria by 48,000 and Oman by 40,000. The announcements were carried by each country's state media.
Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak meanwhile said Moscow would extend a voluntary cut of 500,000 until the end of the year, according to remarks carried by the state news agency Tass. Russia had announced the unilateral reduction in February after Western countries imposed price caps.
All are members of the so-called OPEC+ group of oil exporting countries, which includes the original Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as well as Russia and other major producers. There was no immediate statement from OPEC itself.
The cuts announced in October — of some 2 million barrels a day — had come on the eve of U.S. midterm elections in which soaring prices were a major issue. President Joe Biden vowed at the time that there would be “consequences” and Democratic lawmakers called for freezing cooperation with the Saudis.
Both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia denied any political motives in the dispute.
Since those cuts, oil prices have trended down. Brent crude, a global benchmark, was trading around $80 a barrel at the end of last week, down from around $95 in early October, when the earlier cuts were agreed.
Analysts Giacomo Romeo and Lloyd Byrne at Jefferies said in a research note that the new cuts should allow for “material” reductions to OPEC inventory earlier than expected and could validate recent warnings from some traders and analysts that demand for oil is weakening.
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Gulf expert at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, said the Saudis are determined to keep oil prices high enough to fund ambitious mega-projects linked to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030 plan to overhaul the economy.
“This domestic interest takes precedence in Saudi decision-making over relationships with international partners and is likely to remain a point of friction in U.S.-Saudi relations for the foreseeable future,” he said.
Saudi Arabia's state-run oil giant Aramco recently announced record profits of $161 billion from last year. Profits rose 46.5% when compared to the company’s 2021 results of $110 billion. Aramco said it hoped to boost production to 13 million barrels a day by 2027.
The decades-long U.S.-Saudi alliance has come under growing strain in recent years following the 2018 killing of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi, a U.S.-based journalist, and Saudi Arabia's war with the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
As a candidate for president, Biden had vowed to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” over the Khashoggi killing, but as oil prices rose after his inauguration he backed off. He visited the kingdom last July in a bid to patch up relations, drawing criticism for sharing a fistbump with Crown Prince Mohammed.
Saudi Arabia has denied siding with Russia in the Ukraine war, even as it has cultivated closer ties with both Moscow and Beijing in recent years. Last week, Aramco announced billions of dollars of investment in China's downstream petrochemicals industry.
With no easing of price hike, tough times for people in Khulna as Ramadan begins Friday
The price hike of daily essentials has put the people in Khulna district, especially low-income families, under pressure ahead of Ramadan, the holy month that will begin from Friday.
Prices of essential commodities including pulses, chickpea, puffed rice, flattened rice, edible oil, sugar, onion, garlic, potato, dates, fruits and other items used for iftar have already seen a rise, but some traders say the market is “normal” compared to the previous year.
Low-income people are worried about meeting their daily needs.
During a recent visit to markets in Khulna city, including Moilapota, Dakbungalow, New Market, Chitrali and Doulatpur areas, UNB’s correspondent noted sky-rocketing price of dates, an item generally consumed during iftar, is forcing many to buy in far less amount compared to previous years.
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One kg of Ambar dates is being sold at Tk 1500 while the price of one kg Ajwa dates is Tk 1000, Mariam dates is Tk 900, Sukkari dates is Tk 750, Medjool (big) dates is Tk 1300.
Unripe dates are being sold at Tk 500 per kg.
Besides, one kg of green apple is being sold at Tk 320-350, Fuji apple Tk 260-300 per kg, pomegranate Tk 350-400 per kg, orange Tk 220 per kg and malta at 220 per kg.
Meanwhile, five litres of edible oil is being sold at Tk 900, two litres of edible oil is being sold at Tk 370, one kg of local pulses is being sold at Tk 140, chickpeas Tk 85, sugar Tk 115, potato Tk 25, chickpea powder Tk 110, puffed rice half kg packets being sold at Tk 70, flattened rice Tk 60-65, onion Tk 35, and garlic Tk 100 per kg.
Also read: Spice prices shoot up ahead of Eid despite sufficient stock
Mainul Islam, who works at a private company, said, “Prices of daily essentials are usually hiked before Ramadan begins, but this year the situation is unbearable. One kg of chicken is being sold at Tk 250 while beef at Tk 700. How can I meet the daily needs of my family with my salary that hasn’t gone up to match these prices?”
Prices of vegetables have also increased. None was below Tk 50-60 per kg, he said.
Mamun, a roadside vendor, said, “Every year, my family and I fast during Ramadan. This year, it’ll be difficult for us to have meat with rice.”
Meanwhile, price of bananas — that are eaten during iftar and sehri — has also gone up. One dozen medium sized bananas are being sold at Tk 80-120 while large bananas are being sold at Tk 140-150 per dozen.
Recently, the government asked deputy commissioners to monitor markets strictly during the month of Ramadan and take legal measures if necessary.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has asked all to be vigilant against the hoarding of foods and the black-marketing of these commodities during the holy month.
Have enough stock, no scope of price hike during Ramadan: Tipu
Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi has said the government has enough stock of daily commodities and there is no scope of hike in their prices during the holy month of Ramadan.
"We've got sufficient oil, sugar, chickpeas, and other essential commodities in stock. There’s no scope to increase prices,” he told reporters after a meeting of Task Force committee on commodity prices and market monitoring at the commerce ministry on Sunday.
He said the government has taken all necessary measures to keep the prices of essential goods under control during Ramadan.
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The minister said the government is working to keep the prices of eggplant, cucumber, lemon, and chicken under control during the holy month.
“Meetings at various levels have been held in the past 15 days to keep the prices of Ramadan goods under control,” he said.
He also mentioned strict vigilance has been ensured to prevent extortion during the transportation of these products.
Also Read: If people don’t buy in excess, there will be no price hike of essentials ahead of Ramadan: Tipu Munshi
“No extortion will be tolerated on roads and highways during Ramadan,” he said.
He also said onion price is now at tolerable level and imports have been slowed down a little bit to give farmers a fair price.
Also Read: During holy Ramadan, some profit-mongers hike prices and cause public sufferings: PM
He said that the market will be closely monitored during Ramadan.
“Some may attempt to take advantage of the situation. Anyone who will try to take advantage will face consequences,” he added.
Find ways to bring commodity prices to a normal level: PM tells business leaders
Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina today (March 11, 2023) asked the business community leaders to find ways to bring commodity prices to a normal level.
“Considering public suffering, the business community leaders will have to find ways to bring prices of essentials to a normal level. Otherwise, you will lose your markets,” she said.
The premier said this while inaugurating Bangladesh Business Summit-2023 at Bangabandhu International Conference Centre in the city.
Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), in partnership with Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Commerce Ministry and Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA), is arranging the three-day summit.
Read More: If people don’t buy in excess, there will be no price hike of essentials ahead of Ramadan: Tipu Munshi
Sheikh Hasina said people are going through a very difficult time due to high prices of essentials and inflationary pressure.
She said developing countries like Bangladesh as well as developed countries are facing severe problems due to price hike of essentials and high inflation caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, economic sanctions and counter-sanctions following the Covid-19 pandemic.
Ministers from seven countries including the United Kingdom, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, China, Bhutan and the United Arab Emirates, CEOs of 12 multinational companies, and more than 200 foreign investors and business leaders from 17 countries are participating in the business summit.
Read more: 'Business Summit to help brand Bangladesh's identity, manufacturing prowess to foreign investors'
Foreign Minister Dr AK Abdul Momen, Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi, PM's Private Industry and Investment Affairs Adviser Salman Fazlur Rahman, Saudi Arabian Minister of Commerce Dr. Majid bin Abdullah Al-kassabi, Bhutanese Minister of Commerce and Employment Karma Dorjia and Deputy Director General of World Trade Organisation (WTO) Xiangchen Zhang spoke at the opening function, while FBCCI President Md Jashim Uddin delivered the welcome speech.
The Business Summit is being organized as a part of the FBCCI's 50th founding anniversary celebrations with the aim of creating new opportunities for trade and investment by showcasing the country's economic potential before a global audience.
The Business Summit will showcase dynamic investment opportunities and improvements to the local business climate while also giving insights into investment priorities of global investors to improve policymaking.
Read more: PM to inaugurate Bangladesh Business Summit on Saturday
IMF now expects world economy to grow 2.9% in 2023
The outlook for the global economy is growing slightly brighter as China eases its zero-COVID policies and the world shows surprising resilience in the face of high inflation, elevated interest rates and Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine.
That's the view of the International Monetary Fund, which now expects the world economy to grow 2.9% this year. That forecast is better than the 2.7% expansion for 2023 that the IMF predicted in October, though down from the estimated 3.4% growth in 2022.
The IMF, a 190-country lending organization, foresees inflation easing this year, a result of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks. Those rate hikes are expected to slow the consumer demand that has driven prices higher. Globally, the IMF expects consumer inflation to decelerate from 8.8% last year to 6.6% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024.
A big factor in the upgrade to global growth was China’s decision late last year to lift anti-virus controls that had kept millions of people at home. The IMF said China’s “recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery.’’
Read more: UN forecasts fall in global economic growth to 1.9% in 2023
The IMF now expects China's economy — the world’s second-biggest, after the United States — to grow 5.2% this year, up from its October forecast of 4.4%. Beijing's economy eked out growth of just 3% in 2022 — the first year in more than 40, the IMF noted, that China has expanded more slowly than the world as a whole. But the end of virus restrictions is expected to revive economic activity in 2023.
The IMF's 2023 growth outlook improved for the United States (forecast to grow 1.4%) as well as for the 19 countries that share the euro currency (0.7%). Europe, though suffering from energy shortages and higher prices resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, proved “more resilient than expected,’’ the IMF said. The European economy benefited from a warmer-than-expected winter, which held down demand for natural gas,
Russia's economy, hit by sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine, has proved sturdier than expected, too: The IMF's forecast foresees Russia registering 0.3% growth this year. That would mark an improvement from a contraction of 2.2% in 2022. And it's well above the 2.3% contraction for 2023 that the IMF had forecast for Russia in October.
The United Kingdom is a striking exception to the IMF's brighter outlook for 2023. It has forecast that the British economy will shrink 0.6% in 2023; in October, the IMF had expected growth of 0.3%. Higher interest rates and tighter government budgets are squeezing the British economy.
Read More: Global economic growth will slow down in 2023, but will pick up in 2024: IMF chief
“These figures confirm we are not immune to the pressures hitting nearly all advanced economies,’’ Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said in response to the IMF forecast. “Short-term challenges should not obscure our long-term prospects — the U.K. outperformed many forecasts last year, and if we stick to our plan to halve inflation, the U.K. is still predicted to grow faster than Germany and Japan over the coming years.”
The IMF noted that the world economy still faces serous risks. They include the possibility that Russia's war against Ukraine war will escalate, that China will suffer a sharp increase in COVID cases and that high interest rates will cause a financial crisis in debt-laden countries.
The global outlook has been shrouded in uncertainty since the coronavirus pandemic struck in early 2020. Forecasters have been repeatedly confounded by events: A severe if brief recession in early 2020; an expectedly strong recovery triggered by vast government stimulus aid; then a surge in inflation, worsened when Russia's invasion of Ukraine nearly a year ago disrupted world trade in energy and food.
Three weeks ago, the IMF’s sister agency, the World Bank, issued a more downbeat outlook for the global economy. The World Bank slashed its forecast for international growth this year by nearly half — to 1.7% — and warned that the global economy would come “perilously close’’ to recession.
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Sugar to cost Tk 5 more per kg from Feb 1
The government has increased sugar price again, by Tk 5 per kg, which will be effective from February 1, 2023.
As per discussion with the commerce ministry, a circular has been issued today (January 26, 2023) by the executive secretary of Bangladesh Sugar Refiners Association.
After the price hike, the maximum retail price of unpackaged sugar will be Tk 107 while the price of packaged sugar will be Tk 112.
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“Taking into account the price increase in the international market and the exchange rate of the US dollar and the production cost going up, the price of unpackaged sugar per kg has been set at Tk 107 and packaged sugar at Tk 112 per kg – subject to discussion with the Ministry of Commerce,” the notification said.
Earlier, the government increased the retail price of sugar in November 2022. Currently, the price of packaged sugar is Tk 107 and unpackaged sugar Tk 102 per kg.
In the market, however, unpackaged sugar is sold at Tk 110 and packaged sugar at Tk 120 per kg. The retailers have blamed wholesalers for increasing the sugar price.
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