Poverty has risen to 27.93 per cent in Bangladesh, while about 31 million people in the "fragile middle" remain one shock away from falling below the line, according to a new study by the Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC).

The findings were presented Saturday at the launch of the book "State of the Real Economy: Dynamics of Reversals and Resilience in Bangladesh" at the CIRDAP Auditorium in the city.

The launch coincided with the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty.

PPRC Executive Chairman Hossain Zillur Rahman and Senior Research Associate Namira Shameem, who edited the book, presented the key findings.

The book draws on the PPRC State of the Real Economy (SORE) survey, a nationally representative survey of 8,067 households across all eight divisions, conducted in May 2025.

According to the study, 27.93 per cent of people were below the upper poverty line in 2025, up from 18.7 per cent in the 2022 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES).

The lower poverty line figure rose to 9.35 per cent from 5.6 per cent.

The expenditure Gini coefficient rose from 0.334 to 0.436, with urban inequality (0.532) far higher than rural (0.347).

The study found that 17.97 per cent of households are "vulnerable non-poor", above the poverty line but below median expenditure.

This is about 31 million people. More than half of these households have a chronically ill member, and only 27.5 per cent receive any safety-net support.

Average monthly household income of Tk 32,685 is almost equal to expenditure of Tk 32,615, leaving a surplus of just Tk 70.

The bottom 40 per cent spend more than they earn and food accounts for 54.9 per cent of household spending.

The presentation said the problem is less a lack of work than a lack of adequate work.

About 37.7 per cent of working adults worked fewer than 40 hours a week, including 65.5 per cent of employed women.

Besides, medical expenses triggered 67.4 per cent of financial crises as some 79.31 per cent of health spending is paid out of pocket.

Household debt exceeds savings by 44.6 per cent on average, and by 218 per cent in the poorest decile. Some 48.9 per cent of households reported “harassment and informal payments” in health services.

The presentation described a "politico-governance trap" that took hold between 2014 and 2024 and, it said, largely remains in place.

It cited a non-performing loan ratio of 33.2 per cent in June 2026, tax-to-GDP below 7 per cent in FY25 and net FDI of about 0.3 per cent of GDP in FY26.

Citing the IMF, World Bank and ADB, it noted FY27 growth projections of 3.2, 3.4 and 4.0 per cent respectively.

The study called for a "transition compact" with five pillars: economic democracy, new growth drivers, quality education, productive transformation and governance for speed.

Its sequenced action plan includes real-time household monitoring, a national skills intelligence system, a resilience floor for the vulnerable non-poor and safety-net targeting based on vulnerability rather than static poverty.