In its latest monthly economic update, the General Economics Division (GED) of the Bangladesh Planning Commission has projected cautious optimism for the country’s economic trajectory in FY2026, highlighting both the encouraging trends and persistent structural challenges.
According to the GED’s assessment, the first month of FY2026 shows early signs of economic rebound, although growth projections remain modest due to ongoing political uncertainty, subdued investment and industrial activity, and global headwinds, including the recent imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the United States.
Multilateral institutions have revised their forecasts downward for the current fiscal.
The World Bank projects growth between 3.3% and 4.1%, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates it at 3.9%.
A moderate rebound to 5.1%-5.3% is anticipated in FY2026.
The report warns of continued low levels of foreign direct investment (FDI), driven by eroding investor confidence, a tight fiscal space due to poor revenue mobilisation, and limited public investment.
Bangladesh economy falters; growth slows, factories shut, jobs lost
A provisional National Board of Revenue (NBR) estimate indicates a revenue shortfall, compounded in June by temporary work stoppages over the proposed restructuring of the tax authority.
GED underscores that remittance inflows, export performance, and manufacturing growth will be key to supporting GDP.
It, however, flags a number of threats, including low reserves, changing global buyer preferences and inflationary pressures.
Food inflation remains a key concern despite an overall easing trend. Rice prices, particularly medium and coarse varieties, surged in June, with rice alone contributing 50% to food inflation.
The report cites rising input costs, post-harvest losses, transport costs, and speculative hoarding as possible reasons, calling for urgent supply chain scrutiny.
The banking sector also continues to struggle with decelerating deposit and credit growth.
Private sector credit has remained below 8% for six straight months, weighed down by inflation, tight monetary policy, and reduced import financing.
The GED recommends structural reforms, investment incentives, and economic policy reorientation to restore momentum and build resilience in the face of ongoing domestic and global uncertainties.