After weeks of White House hype and public anxiety, President Donald Trump is set Wednesday to announce a barrage of self-described “reciprocal” tariffs on friend and foe alike.
The new tariffs — coming on what Trump has called “Liberation Day” — is a bid to boost U.S. manufacturing and punish other countries for what he has said are years of unfair trade practices. But by most economists’ assessments, the risky move threatens to plunge the economy into a downturn and mangle decades-old alliances.
The White House is exuding confidence despite the political and financial gamble being undertaken.
“April 2, 2025, will go down as one of the most important days in modern American history,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at Tuesday’s briefing while adding that the new tariffs will take effect immediately.
The reciprocal tariffs Trump plans to announce follow similar recent announcements of 25% taxes on auto imports; levies against China, Canada and Mexico; and expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum. Trump has also put tariffs against countries that import oil from Venezuela and plans separate import taxes on pharmaceutical drugs, lumber, copper and computer chips.
None of the warning signs about a falling stock market or consumer sentiment turning morose have caused the administration to publicly second-guess its strategy.
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro has suggested that the new tariffs would raise $600 billion annually, which would be the largest tax increase since World War II. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers that the tariffs would be capped and could be negotiated downward by other countries, according to the office of Rep. Kevin Hern, R-Okla. But the White House has yet to confirm policy details, despite Trump saying on Monday that he had made his decision.
Importers would likely pass along some of the cost of the taxes on to consumers. The Budget Lab at Yale University estimates that a 20% universal tariff would cost the average household an additional $3,400 to $4,200.
The administration's premise is that manufacturers will quickly increase domestic production and create new factory jobs — and the White House is expressing confidence that Trump’s approach is absolutely correct.
“They’re not going to be wrong,” Leavitt said. “It is going to work. And the president has a brilliant team of advisers who have been studying these issues for decades. And we are focused on restoring the golden age of America and making America a manufacturing superpower.”
The bold optimism has done little to reassure the public or allies who see the import taxes as a threat.
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Based on the possibility of broad 20% tariffs that have been floated by some White House aides, most analyses see an economy tarnished by higher prices and stagnation. U.S. economic growth — as measured by gross domestic product — would be roughly a percentage point lower, and clothing, oil, automobiles, housing, groceries and even insurance would cost more, the Budget Lab analysis found.
Trump would single-handedly be applying these tariffs, since he has ways of legally doing so without congressional approval. That makes it easy for Democratic lawmakers and policymakers to criticize the Republican administration, if the uncertainty expressed by businesses and declining consumer sentiment are, in fact, signs of trouble to come.
Heather Boushey, who served as a member of the Biden White House's Council of Economic Advisers, noted that the less aggressive tariffs Trump imposed during his first term failed to stir the manufacturing renaissance he promised voters.
“We are not seeing indications of the boom that the president promised," Boushey said. “It's a failed strategy.”
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York said the tariffs were fundamentally a way for Trump to raise revenues in order to pay for his planned extensions of income tax cuts that disproportionately favor millionaires and billionaires.
“Almost everything they do, including tariffs, it seems to me, is aimed at getting those tax cuts for the wealthy,” Schumer said Tuesday on the Senate floor.
Even Republicans who trust Trump's instincts have acknowledged that the tariffs could be disruptive to an economy with an otherwise healthy 4.1 % unemployment rate.
“We’ll see how it all develops,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. “It may be rocky in the beginning. But I think that this will make sense for Americans and help all Americans.”
Longtime trading partners are preparing their own countermeasures. Canada has already imposed some in response to the 25% tariffs that Trump tied to the trafficking of fentanyl. The European Union, in response to the steel and aluminum tariffs, put taxes on 26 billion euros' worth ($28 billion) of U.S. goods, including on bourbon, which prompted Trump to threaten a 200% tariff on European alcohol.
Many allies feel they have been reluctantly drawn into a confrontation by Trump, who routinely says that friends and foes have essentially ripped off the United States with a mix of tariffs and other trade barriers.
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The flip side, of course, is that Americans also have the incomes to choose to buy designer gowns by French fashion houses and autos from German manufacturers, whereas World Bank data show the EU has lower incomes per capita than the United States.
“Europe has not started this confrontation,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. “We do not necessarily want to retaliate but, if it is necessary, we have a strong plan to retaliate and we will use it.”
Because Trump has hyped his tariffs without providing specifics, he has provided a deeper sense of uncertainty for the world, a sign that the economic slowdown could possibly extend beyond U.S. borders to other nations that would see one person to blame.
Ray Sparnaay, general manager of JE Fixture & Tool, a Canadian tool and die business that sits across the Detroit River, said the uncertainty has crushed his company's ability to make plans.
“There’s going to be tariffs implemented. We just don’t know at this point,” he said Monday. “That’s one of the biggest problems we’ve had probably the last — well, since November — is the uncertainty. It’s basically slowed all of our quoting processes, business that we hope to secure has been stalled.”