Three hot favourites in Group 1 of the Super 12s are vying for a spot in the knockout phase of the T20 World Cup 2022. Sri Lanka are still in the race for a semifinal berth, but their chances are very slim. On the other hand, Ireland and Afghanistan are already out of the tournament. Let’s have a look at which teams among Australia, England, and New Zealand are favourites to advance to the semifinals.
Twenty20 World Cup 2022: Scenarios of Group 1
The majority of experts predicted that Australia would dominate the Group 1 stage given that they are the defending champions and the tournament's hosts. However, Australia's chances of making it to the semifinals are in jeopardy after falling to New Zealand by a huge margin of 89 runs in the Super 12 Round opener.
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The Australian team was hard hit by net run rates, and they are still far behind their group rivals in this equation. However, the 2021 champions have stayed strong in the race for a place in the semifinals by sitting in third place in the points standings.
New Zealand are currently top of the group 1 points table with 5, but they have a way better run rate than second-placed England and their arch-rival Australia; both of them have 5 points as well.
Sri Lanka are in the fourth position with 4 points, and they are also in the race for a spot in the semifinals. However, the Lankan side’s chances rely on the outcomes of the other remaining fixtures in the group even if they overcome England in their final game of the Super 12s.
Among the other teams, Afghanistan are completely out of the tournament, while Ireland are mathematically in the race for a berth in the knockout phase. However, the Irish team’s probability of going to the next round depends on a lot of ifs and buts, which are unlikely to happen.
Let’s take a glance at the current situation of the Group 1 points table, the remaining fixtures, and which teams have a better chance to go to the semifinals.
Group 1 points standings (as on November 1)
| Team | Match | Win | Lose | N/R | Points | NRR |
| New Zealand | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2.233 |
| England | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.547 |
| Australia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -0.304 |
| Sri Lanka | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -0.457 |
| Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1.544 |
| Afghanistan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -0.718 |
Remaining fixtures of Group 1
Match: Ireland vs New Zealand | Date: November 4 (Friday) | Venue: Adelaide Oval | Time: 10 a.m. (BDT)
Match: Australia vs Afghanistan | Date: November 4 (Friday) | Venue: Adelaide Oval | Time: 2 p.m. (BDT)
Match: England vs Sri Lanka | Date: November 5 (Saturday) | Venue: SCG, Sydney | Time: 2 p.m. (BDT)
Australia
The Australian side will face Afghanistan in their final Group 1 fixture this Friday at the Adelaide Oval. Winning the match will not be enough for Australia if New Zealand and England win their respective final matches. Australia will have to ensure a big margin of victory in this contest so that their net run rates improve. But as it seems now, Australia need a favour from Ireland and Sri Lanka by winning their respective matches against New Zealand and England.
England
The English side will face a tougher opponent than Australia and New Zealand in their final Group 1 fixture. They will take on the Lanakan side on November 5 at the SCG. England will likely advance to the knockout round if they overcome Sri Lanka in this contest, as they have better run rates than Australia.
New Zealand
The Kiwi side is the favourite to top the Group 1 point standings thanks to a superior run rate. The 2021 ICC Twenty20 World Cup Champions will advance to the semifinals if they simply beat Ireland. It will be challenging for the Irish team to come away with a victory given the New Zealand team's performance thus far in the competition.
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Verdict
According to the point standings and net run rates, New Zealand are the clear favorite to top Group 1 and advance to the knockout round. The English team should be more confident than Australia in order to secure a spot in the last four since they have greater run rates. The Australian team will thus be under massive pressure to defeat Afghanistan in Adelaide and advance to the T20 World Cup 2022 semifinals.