A Paris appeals court is set to deliver a key ruling on Tuesday in Marine Le Pen's embezzlement case, with the decision likely to determine whether the French far-right leader can contest the 2027 presidential election.
Le Pen, 57, is appealing a March 2025 conviction that found her and several members of her National Rally party guilty of misusing European Parliament funds. Prosecutors said money meant to pay parliamentary assistants was instead used to pay party staff between 2004 and 2016.
The lower court handed Le Pen a prison sentence, which has been suspended while her appeal is heard, and banned her from holding elected office for five years. She denies any wrongdoing and hopes to make her fourth run for the French presidency.
If the ban remains in place, National Rally president Jordan Bardella, 30, is expected to become the party's candidate, potentially changing the race to succeed President Emmanuel Macron.
Acquittal would clear the way
The best outcome for Le Pen would be a full acquittal, allowing her to run without legal obstacles.
During the five-week appeal hearing earlier this year, Le Pen admitted there had been "a mistake" but insisted she believed it was legal for some parliamentary assistants to also work for her party, then known as the National Front.
She said there was never any attempt to hide the arrangement and argued that European Parliament officials had never warned the party that its hiring practices might violate the rules.
Her lawyer, Rodolphe Bosselut, urged the judges to allow Le Pen to rebuild her political career.
Even if she is cleared, prosecutors could still challenge the verdict before France's highest court, the Court of Cassation.
A shorter ban could keep her in the race
The appeals court could also uphold Le Pen's conviction but reduce her ban from public office to two years or less, or remove it altogether.
Because the original ban took effect immediately in March last year, a shorter ban would end before the first round of the presidential election, scheduled for April 2027.
However, Le Pen has said that even if she is legally allowed to run, any prison sentence, electronic monitoring or other court restrictions could make it impossible to campaign across the country.
"If I'm allowed to be a candidate but cannot campaign freely, then it wouldn't be possible," she told French broadcaster LCI this week.
She said she could not run a national campaign if she needed a judge's permission to travel or attend campaign events.
Court could impose a tougher punishment
Prosecutors have asked the appeals court to sentence Le Pen to four years in prison, with three years suspended, and to keep the five-year ban on holding elected office.
They accuse her of leading a system that diverted European Union funds for the benefit of her party.
Although prosecutors did not request it, the appeals court could again decide that any ban should take immediate effect.
Le Pen would still be able to appeal to the Court of Cassation, although it remains unclear whether such an appeal would suspend the sentence.
France's highest court has previously said it would try to issue a final ruling before the 2027 presidential election if it accepts the case.
Le Pen says she cannot wait until the last minute
Le Pen has said she will not delay deciding whether to run because a presidential campaign requires months of preparation.
She warned that lengthy legal proceedings could effectively prevent her from entering the race, even if she is later cleared.
France's presidential campaign is expected to begin gathering momentum in September before intensifying early next year.
Presidential candidates must also secure the endorsements of 500 elected officials to qualify for the ballot, making it difficult for parties to replace a candidate late in the campaign.
"If I'm prevented from running but the Court of Cassation rules in my favor three or four months later, it will already be too late to mount a proper presidential campaign," Le Pen said in an earlier interview with RTL radio.