France's far-right leader Marine Le Pen faces a pivotal moment in her political career as a Paris appeals court is set to rule Tuesday on her conviction and whether she can contest the 2027 presidential election.
The court's decision, expected from 1:30 pm local time, could significantly reshape the race to succeed President Emmanuel Macron, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term.
Le Pen, 57, is appealing a March 2025 conviction that found her and several members of her National Rally party guilty of misusing European Parliament funds by paying party staff with money allocated for parliamentary assistants between 2004 and 2016.
The lower court sentenced her to a prison term, suspended pending appeal, and imposed a five-year ban from holding elected office. Le Pen has denied any wrongdoing.
If the appeals court upholds the five-year ban, it would almost certainly prevent her from making a fourth bid for the French presidency and could mark a major setback for the anti-immigration, Eurosceptic National Rally.
However, the court could also reduce the ban to two years or less—or remove it entirely. A shorter ban would expire before the first round of the 2027 presidential election, scheduled for April that year.
Even if allowed to run, Le Pen has said additional judicial restrictions, such as electronic monitoring or other conditions linked to a prison sentence, could affect her ability to campaign.
Prosecutors have asked the appeals court to sentence Le Pen to four years in prison, with three years suspended, along with a five-year ban from holding elected office. They accused her of leading a scheme that diverted European Union funds to benefit her party.
If Le Pen is barred from running, National Rally president Jordan Bardella, 30, is widely expected to become the party's presidential candidate.
Le Pen could still appeal to France's highest court, the Court of Cassation, although it remains uncertain whether any sentence would be suspended during the appeal process. The court has previously indicated it would seek to issue a final ruling before the 2027 presidential election if asked to review the case.