Despite support from both the Biden and Trump administrations, U.S. manufacturing remains stuck in a prolonged slump.

Ex-President Joe Biden’s administration rolled out subsidies for chipmakers and clean energy firms, spurring a surge in factory construction from 2021 to 2024. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump imposed high tariffs on foreign goods to protect American manufacturers and encourage domestic production.

Still, factory jobs are declining. The U.S. Labor Department reported a loss of 7,000 manufacturing jobs in June, the second monthly drop in a row. Manufacturing employment is expected to fall for the third straight year.

“Manufacturing production will continue to flatline,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “If production is flat, that suggests manufacturing employment will continue to slide.”

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Industry insiders echo concerns. “The past three years have been a real slog for manufacturing,” said Eric Hagopian, CEO of Pilot Precision Products.

Trump’s tariffs offer some relief for U.S. firms by making imported goods more expensive. “When you throw the tariff on, it gets us closer,” said Chris Zuzick of Waukesha Metal Products. But tariffs also raise the cost of imported materials used by American factories, like steel and aluminum, reducing global competitiveness.

Frequent changes to tariff policies have added to industry uncertainty. “Customers do not want to make commitments in the wake of massive tariff uncertainty,” one company said in a recent ISM survey.

“Everyone is kind of just waiting for the new normal,” Zuzick added.