Director of the South Asia Institute at Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. Michael Kugelman has said it may be more difficult for the US to make a “conclusive judgment” on the upcoming national election results in Bangladesh if opposition BNP boycotts it.

“Because if the Awami League is running against itself, if it gets 98% of the vote, you can't say that those votes were taken away from the BNP. So it's all very unsettled,” he told UNB in an interview, noting that the Biden administration wants a free and fair election in Bangladesh and at the end of the day, the US wants to have a good relationship with Bangladesh.

The government of Bangladesh keeps reiterating that it is committed to holding a “free, fair and peaceful” election in the country. The next national election is likely to be held in December this year or January next.

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Highlighting another possible scenario, Kugelman said if the election happens and the US concludes that it is a rigged election instead of free and fair, he would not be surprised if that prompts the US government to conduct a review of its future relations with Bangladesh.

“I think that one of the reasons why the Biden administration has been putting so much pressure on Dhaka, announcing this visa policy, doing the sanctions on Rab, I think the idea is to impress upon the ruling party, the imperative of doing whatever is possible to ensure a free and fair election so that the administration doesn't have to make the decision about what the future of the relationship should look like,” said the South Asian expert.

Kugelman who is now in Dhaka on his first tour said the US administration is signaling to Dhaka that it does not want to consider such options of less engagement. “We can't rule out a lessening and reduction of ties. I think this wouldn't necessarily happen. But I think it's a possibility.”

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He said though he does not really have a sense as to what is going on; there is a very good chance that the election result will be contested.

Asked about the political scenario ahead of the elections, Kugelman, also a writer of Foreign Policy's weekly South Asia Brief, said it is really very unsettled and an uncertain moment because there is a lot of question marks about the outcome of the election, to an extent whether the opposition will participate or whether it will boycott, what else could happen in the lead up to the election.

“As an outside observer of Bangladesh, I see here playing out something that really is playing out in a lot of countries around the world, including in the United States, quite frankly, and that is a very polarized politics,” he said.

For him, Kugelman said, the biggest question is - Will the opposition boycott or not? Because that would appear to change the entire complexion of the election if they are not in it,” he said, adding that it is a big moment for Bangladesh and a big moment for the US-Bangladesh relations.

He thinks the outcome of the election and how it is perceived and construed could have significant implications for the US-Bangladesh relations.

Asked about public perception that the US is favoring the BNP, Kugelman said, “I don't want to over-generalize public opinion in Bangladesh. But what I'll say is that the Biden administration is not favoring the BNP.”

What they are seeing is that the Biden administration is trying to make Bangladesh a test case for its values-based foreign policy. “In other words, it's very robustly pursuing this policy of promoting democracy and human rights in Bangladesh. It's a selective policy that does not apply in many other countries, including Pakistan, as well as India,” Kugelman said.

“I think it's more of the issue of the policies and concerns about rights and democracy, more so than who's in power and who's in the opposition,” he added.

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A Tough Spot

Responding to a question, the expert said Bangladesh is in a tough spot. “I would argue that, in the immediate term, it faces immediate challenges, both politically and geopolitically. It faces a very unsettled, uncertain political moment. But it also is experiencing what I would describe as unprecedented geopolitical churn on a soil and in its neighborhood with these multiple great power competitions playing out.”

But at the same time, he said, if they move beyond that, he thinks it faces longer run challenges like climate change. “And I think it's too late to simply shrug off climate change as a long term challenge. It's, it's here.”

Kugelman said Bangladesh is dealing with immediate term challenges with political issues and with geopolitics, certainly with the economy.

Of course, one should never be complacent about terrorism risks here, he said, adding that it seems that things are not nearly as concerning as they were some years ago.

But, Kugelman added, one cannot rule out the future threat of militancy as well. “So I think it's a matter of striking a balance between focusing on the immediate term while also ensuring that enough policy space is allocated to start focusing on addressing the longer term challenges as well.”

Intensifying Geopolitical Rivalries

Responding to a question on Bangladesh’s relation with four big powers, Kugelman said, “You have what I would describe as intensifying geopolitical rivalries. And Bangladesh has essentially become a battleground for three of these geopolitical rivalries – India-China; US-China; and US-Russia.”

And, he said, it is going to become increasingly difficult for Dhaka to manage its relations with all four of these countries.

Talking about Bangladesh’s Indo-Pacific Outlook, he said it appears to emphasise principles and preferences and priorities that align with ideas found in both the US Indo-Pacific policy and in the foreign policy principles of China.

“It seems to be an effort to balance relations with both the US and China. I also think it was very wise of Dhaka to name it outlook instead of strategy. If it were a strategy that would convey a more formal document but if it is just an outlook that suggests it is maybe a bit more informal,” said the expert.

He thinks that is meant to send a signal to both Beijing and Moscow that just because Bangladesh has come up with this Indo-Pacific document, it's not meant to endorse the US Indo-Pacific strategy.

BRICS Expansion and Bangladesh

Kugelman thinks that it would have been good for Bangladesh in terms of its capacity to show that it is a player worth taking seriously on the global stage.

He said BRICS is a troubled entity and it struggled to get things done. “And I think that with Iran now joining BRICS, there is a danger that the West will start to perceive it as an anti-West Block, even though I think that's an inaccurate perception.”

He said one could say that maybe it is not the worst thing for Bangladesh not to get membership this time. “But I do think there's a chance that there'll be future rounds of expansion and down the road, Bangladesh can join.”

“There are fewer candidates as strong as Bangladesh for admission to BRICS. It is a major emerging economy. It is also an Asian country. I was struck that of the six new members, none of them was from Asia,” he added.

In the BRICS, China, India, and the other members do not have anything against Bangladesh. “So I'd like to think that if it wants to join down the road, it would have a good chance,” said the expert.

Responding to a question on the economic scenario, he said Bangladesh economy remains quite robust. “But over the long run, I think you have to worry. This is an economy that's been so disproportionately focused on garment exports, textiles for so long. The economy is changing in a big way.

He hoped that there will be a moment when Bangladesh will need to be in a position to diversify its top source of exports so that it is in a better position to compete with the real big economic stars.

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